Big Tech’s shift on Trump

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When Donald Trump was first elected to the White House in 2016, Silicon Valley recoiled in horror. His nativism and open trolling of liberal pieties were an affront to the ultra liberal values of many in the industry, forged in the San Francisco Bay area.

There were also good business reasons for concern. The populism promoted by Trump stood in clear opposition to the internationalist, free-trade agenda that US tech had ridden to global dominance since the mid-1990s. The prospect of trade tensions and fraying alliances abroad, as well as immigration restrictions at home, promised a different world.

With Trump 2.0 now on the horizon, many of the same concerns are simmering, but the tech landscape — and the reaction — has changed. Compared with the shock that galvanised opposition last time around, higher expectations of his victory have dulled the outrage among tech’s rank and file, dominated by Democratic supporters.

Eight years on, the rivalry with China has fractured global tech markets and shaken up electronics supply chains. Big Tech’s wealth and power has exploded, drawing concerted antitrust attention. With AI, the industry stands on the brink of its biggest opportunity since the internet.

And, frustrated by the perceived regulatory overkill of the Biden administration and a “woke” liberal establishment, a small but vocal band, led by Elon Musk, has challenged Silicon Valley’s dominant political culture. Those views are widely shared, if not often openly expressed.

There is now a sense of both risk and opportunity for the tech sector. Navigating the sometimes conflicting impulses of the new administration, along with Trump’s frequent reversals in position and proclivity for personal vendettas, will be key.

Take Biden’s offer of billions of dollars of subsidies under the Chips Act to bring more chip manufacturing back to the US.

The goal is one Trump shares. The president-elect, though, likes nothing more than to torpedo his predecessors’ signature achievements. He grumbled recently about the need for subsidies, claiming that the import tariffs he has promised would give chipmakers all the incentive they need to relocate manufacturing to the US.

With most of the Biden grants promised but not yet finalised, the scramble before the change in administration will now be frantic.

Trump’s threat of sweeping tariffs could bring more dislocation for global electronics supply chains, which have already faced geopolitical and pandemic upheaval.

It may, as many have suggested, be a negotiating ploy to force concessions from trading partners. If so, then it reinforces one of the main priorities for tech’s leaders: get the new president’s ear to argue for special treatment that spares their own companies.

More generally, though, an expectation that the Trump administration will dial back antitrust pressure, along with an intensification of the rivalry with China, has raised industry hopes.

The biggest tech companies have long argued for greater regulatory freedom to ensure they can stay ahead of China in key technologies. They will now double down on that, particularly when it comes to AI.

If this sounds like a route to Big Tech Unbound, the relationship with the new White House is still likely to be shaped by wariness on both sides. Republican claims of anti-conservative bias and supposedly “woke AI” were rife during the election.

When it comes to dealing with a Trump White House, nothing beats the personal touch. Other tech leaders are transfixed by Elon Musk, whose decision to go all-in for the Trump campaign paid off this week in spectacular fashion.

Trump’s promise that the Tesla and SpaceX chief executive will have a leading role in slashing costs across the federal government potentially puts him in a position of power over regulatory agencies he has feuded with repeatedly in the past.

Musk is on the verge of the ultimate disruption — the US government itself.

As it became clear this week that Trump was heading for victory, Musk posted a mocked-up picture of himself carrying a sink into the Oval Office — an echo of the day he took control of Twitter.

It was easy to conclude that he was overplaying his hand, and his influence will not be as deep or lasting. But in the shadow of victory, at least, the bond between the US president-elect and the world’s richest man looks extraordinarily close.

richard.waters@ft.com