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Good morning and welcome to White House Watch. In today’s edition, we’ll be looking at:
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US and Israel’s attack on Iran
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Trump’s justifications for war
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Oil markets tested by escalating crisis
Donald Trump has said he will do “whatever it takes” to contain Iran, raising the real possibility that the US could find itself drawn into another protracted conflict in the Middle East.
The US and Israeli attack on Iran over the weekend has already claimed the lives of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top officials, along with scores of Iranian civilians and six US service members.
On Monday, Trump said Washington would look to “destroy Tehran’s missile capabilities, annihilate its navy, stop it from developing nuclear weapons, and prevent Iran from supporting terrorist proxy groups abroad”.
“Whatever it takes,” Trump said. “Right from the beginning, we projected four to five weeks, but we have capability to go far longer than that . . . We haven’t even started hitting them hard.”
The war may also have severe economic consequences. The first three days have destabilised oil markets and sent freight costs soaring as Iran fired on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for crude oil flows.
US secretary of state Marco Rubio yesterday warned that Iran could “shut off 20 per cent of global energy” as he said the Trump administration would start to take steps to “mitigate” the impact of the threat.
“This terroristic regime led by radical clerics has the ability to shut off 20 per cent of global energy. That’s the kind of leverage they have because of their navy,” he said, adding, “we’re going to destroy their navy”.
The initial attack has already escalated into a broader conflict. Iran has attacked cities in the UAE and Qatar, as well as a British Air Force base in Cyprus.
Israel, meanwhile, has launched a barrage of missiles across Lebanon — including some aimed at Beirut’s southern suburbs — after Hizbollah fired rockets towards Israel.
As of Monday evening, those strikes killed 52 people and injured 154, according to Lebanese authorities managing the disaster response.
The US military has remained defiant. “Two days ago, the Iranian regime had 11 ships in the Gulf of Oman, today they have ZERO,” said the US Central Command, which oversees American military operations in the Middle East, in a post on X.
The latest headlines
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Donald Trump has attacked Sir Keir Starmer for allowing a “very sad” rupture to open up between the US and UK over the war in Iran.
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German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is heading to Washington after justifying the US-Israeli campaign to topple Iran’s regime, in a bid to appease Trump.
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The US government has dropped its legal effort to enforce punitive executive orders targeting top law firms.
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France has offered to deploy its nuclear deterrent across Europe for the first time.
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Canada and India will aim to sign a trade deal by the end of the year following a meeting between the two countries’ leaders.
What we’re hearing
Trump has so far offered conflicting messages about his goals in Iran, reports the FT’s US foreign affairs correspondent Abigail Hauslohner.
On Saturday, Trump described a regime change operation to give the Iranian people the chance to “take over your government” and “seize control of your destiny”.
On Sunday, the president told the New York Times that he had picked “three very good choices” among Iran’s officials to take over the country.
By Monday, he told ABC that the US and Israeli strikes had been “so successful” the candidates were “all dead”.
“We don’t know who’s leading the country now. They don’t know who’s leading,” he told CNN.
Democratic senator Tim Kaine was critical of the US president’s lack of a plan.
“It’s like we’re going to break all the china and you guys decide how to put it back together,” Kaine said on Sunday of Trump’s attitude towards the Iranian people. “It seems like that is the strategy.”
And Maga figures were also concerned. This war is “going to uncork a significant can of worms and chaos and destruction in Iran now. Who takes over?” said Erik Prince, who founded the Blackwater private security firm during the Iraq war, on former Trump aide Steve Bannon’s podcast. “I don’t see how this is in keeping with the president’s Maga commitment.”
Viewpoints
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President Donald Trump promised last year to be a “peacemaker” who ended wars of choice. He is now embroiled against Iran in the mother of all regime changes, writes Edward Luce.
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Trump has no realistic plan for Iran’s future, argues the FT’s chief foreign affairs commentator Gideon Rachman.
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Rana Foroohar considers whether the US can really build more ships again.
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Oil markets will be tested by the escalating crisis in the Middle East, writes energy analyst John Kemp.
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James Holmes, chair of maritime strategy at the US Naval War College, explains how western navies can keep the Strait of Hormuz open.
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