Trump’s first 100 days coincides with rightwing failures abroad

Hello and welcome to the working week.

My colleagues in Washington are sharpening their pens to assess the first 100 days of Donald Trump’s second term in office. But the US president’s impact can also be assessed by a series of national and local elections scattered across continents over the next seven days.

Let’s start with Canada, whose citizens will be first to the polls on Monday. Up until the return of Trump, and more particularly his tariffs, the incumbent Liberal party was on the ropes. Now they are riding high and it is the rightwing opposition leader Pierre Poilievre who is struggling. Mark Carney, the man defending his recent elevation to the office of prime minister, is winning votes by portraying himself as a wartime leader akin to Winston Churchill and an antidote to the US president — the question, asked in this FT analysis, is whether he has what it takes do this.

It is a similar story in Australia, which holds federal elections on Saturday. When Labor Prime Minister Anthony Albanese called the ballot in March, many predicted a hung parliament with Labor forming a government, given the lack of other viable options. But opposition Liberal party leader Peter Dutton’s strongman image — linking him with Trump in many voters’ eyes — has backfired spectacularly such that an outright Labor win looks more likely with each successive poll.

The picture is more complicated in the UK, where seats in 24 English local authorities and six regional mayoralties will be contested on Thursday. It is also the day of the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, after the former MP was convicted for punching a constituent — not the first Labour politician to use his fists, but seldom a good look politically. Labour Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is likely to be facing an embarrassing loss in Runcorn and at least two of the mayoral seats. But this will be balanced by the probable heavy defeat in local council seats awaiting his parliamentary rival Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party — which as my colleague Robert Shrimsley notes in his latest UK politics column has morphed from being pure far right into a surprisingly leftwing political group when it comes to economics — is set to vacuum up votes in all the electoral contests. If you want to track when the various vote counts will be announced, read Stephen Bush’s Inside Politics newsletter.

There is a clear exception to the rule of Trump helping the left in elections this week and it’s Romania. Ultranationalist candidates, trading on Maga-style techniques, are riding high ahead of the central European state’s presidential election on Sunday. This state of affairs, explained entertainingly by the FT’s man on the ground Marton Dunai, is somewhat ironic given that the election was postponed previously because of concerns about Russian influence.

For Singaporeans, who go to the polls on Saturday, the key electoral issue is the impact from rising tensions between the US and China, both big trading partners for the Asian city-state. This election will almost certainly be won by the incumbent Prime Minister Lawrence Wong and his People’s Action party, which has taken the previous 14 contests. But trade wars and the impact on Singapore’s high living costs — made worse by the economic chaos caused by Trump’s tariff threats — have been big issues in campaigning, as my colleague on the ground Owen Walker explains.

Saturday is also the day that the Trump administration’s 25 per cent tariff on imported car parts comes into force. The exception to this levy is any import that is duty-free under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Of course, Trump has already introduced 25 per cent tariffs on imported cars. Moreover, given past form, he might postpone the lot. For the latest on the White House levies, click on the FT’s Trump Tracker.

Has it really been just 100 days?

After a quiet start, the economic data run will peak later in the week, with preliminary first-quarter GDP estimates and monthly employment reports from the US and the EU, plus an interest rate announcement from the Bank of Japan. If monetary policy is your thing, try the FT’s inflation and interest rate tracker.

We are in the thick of earnings season with a plethora of results announcements and trading updates: from the last of the retail banks (HSBC and Lloyds Banking Group, I’m looking at you) and Big Tech (Amazon.com, Meta, Microsoft and Spotify), plus oil (a chance to compare and contrast BP with Shell, Chevron and ExxonMobil), retailers (Associated British Foods) and pharmaceutical groups AstraZeneca and GSK. The big question at the analyst calls is how Trump’s tariff wars are affecting the outlook for these companies. My colleague Rob Armstrong, in his consistently excellent Unhedged (Premium subscriber) newsletter, has called it a crucial earnings season. More details below.

One more thing . . . 

Being a fan of the Star Wars film franchise has never been cool. I know because I am one. This will be proved via myriad weirdo posts in my social media feeds next Sunday on International Star Wars Day, an unofficial fan celebration based on a pun on the line “may the force (fourth) be with you”.

For those of us who queued round the block of our local cinema to see the first film in 1977, there is genuine joy at the British Film Institute reshowing that original British cut of the movie for the first time in decades in London next month. For those of us who love a Shrimsley satire, read this.

What are your priorities for the next seven, or indeed 100, days? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Amazon is due to launch the first 27 satellites for its Project Kuiper fast internet network, an already delayed start to the company’s plan to create a massive constellation to rival Elon Musk’s Starlink system

• Results: Brambles Q3 trading update, Cadence Design Systems Q1, Daiwa Securities Q4, Deutsche Börse Q1, Domino’s Pizza Q1, Hitachi FY, Kikkoman FY, MGM Resorts Q1 business update, NEC Q4, Nucor Q1, Porsche Q1, Plus500 Q1 trading update, Roper Technologies Q1, SBA Communications Q1

Tuesday

• Reserve Bank of Australia assistant governor (financial markets) Christopher Kent gives keynote speech at Australia’s External Position and the Evolution of the FX Markets, hosted by Bloomberg in Sydney

• Dave Ramsden, Bank of England deputy governor, markets and banking, delivers a keynote speech at the Innovate Finance Global Summit

• EU: European Central Bank monthly consumer expectations survey

• Japan: Showa Day. Financial markets closed

• UK: Zoopla House Price Index. Also, Kantar grocery market share figures and shop price inflation report

• US: March Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (Jolts) data

• Results: Adidas Q1, Alfa-Laval Q1, AO Smith Q1, Associated British Foods HY, AstraZeneca Q1, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria Q1, Beazley Q1 trading update, Booking Q1, BP Q1, Brown & Brown Q1, Caesars Entertainment Q1, Carlsberg Q1 trading statement, Clariant Q1, Coca-Cola Q1, Corning Q1, Deutsche Bank Q1, Deutsche Lufthansa Q1, Entain Q1 trading update, General Motors Q1, HelloFresh Q1, Hilton Q1, Honeywell Q1, Howden Joinery trading update, HSBC Q1, Hydro Q1, Kraft Heinz Q1, Leggett & Platt Q1, Mondelez Q1, Novartis Q1, PayPal Q1, Pfizer Q1, Royal Caribbean Q1, RWS HY, Seagate Q3, Sherwin-Williams Q1, Snap Q1, Spotify Q1, Starbucks Q2, Teradyne Q1, Travis Perkins Q1 trading update, United Parcel Service Q1, Universal Music Group Q1, Visa Q2, Waste Management Q1

Wednesday

• Gareth Truran, Bank of England executive director, insurance supervision, speaks at the 22nd Conference on bulk annuities “Overseeing BPA growth safely”

• DN Solutions, a South Korean industrial tools manufacturer, is set to name the final price for the sale of 17.5mn shares, potentially making it the biggest IPO the country has seen for three years

• Australia: March consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data

• Australia, China: S&P Global/Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

• Anglo American holds a general meeting for shareholders to vote on the proposed demerger of Anglo American Platinum. If approved, the demerger is expected to become effective on May 31

• EU: preliminary Q1 GDP estimate

• Germany: March labour market statistics, plus provisional April CPI and harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate data and preliminary Q1 GDP estimate

• UK: Nationwide April House Price Index

• US: preliminary Q1 GDP estimate

• Results: Aberdeen assets under management and administration (AUMA) and flows trading update, Adyen Q1 business update, Airbus Q1, Air France-KLM Q1, Albemarle Q1, ArcelorMittal Q1, Aston Martin Lagonda Q1, Banco Santander Q1, Barclays Q1, Caterpillar Q1, Crédit Agricole Q1, Crown Castle Q1, East Japan Railway FY, eBay Q1, Equinor Q1, Etsy Q1, Glencore Q1 production report, GSK Q1, Haleon Q1 trading statement, Hess Corp Q1, Iberdrola Q1, International Paper Q1, Kingspan trading update, Mercedes-Benz Q1, Meta Platforms Q1, MetLife Q1, Microsoft Q3, OMV Q1, Prudential Q1 business performance update, Qualcomm Q2, Repsol Q1, Samsung Electronics Q1, Schindler Q1, Segro Q1 trading update, Smith & Nephew Q1, Société Générale Q1, Stanley Black & Decker Q1, Stellantis Q1, Taylor Wimpey AGM trading update, THG FY and Q1 trading statement, UBS Q1, Videndum FY, Volkswagen Q1, Western Digital Q3, Yum Brands Q1

Thursday

• Austria, Belgium, Brazil, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong, India, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Spain and others: financial markets closed for Labour Day

• Canada, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global manufacturing PMI data

• Japan: interest rate announcement and economic outlook report

• Results: Airbnb Q1, Allstate Q1, Amazon.com Q1, American International Group Q1, Amgen Q1, Apple Q2, Baxter International Q1, Bombardier Q1, Canadian National Railway Q1, Cardinal Health Q3, Computacenter Q1 trading update, CVS Health Q1, Drax AGM and trading update, Eli Lilly Q1, Estée Lauder Q3, Hershey Q1, Hiscox Q1 trading statement, Iron Mountain Q1, Juniper Networks Q1, Kerry Group Q1 interim management statement, KKR Q1, Linde Q1, Live Nation Entertainment Q1, Lloyds Banking Group Q1, London Stock Exchange Group Q1 trading statement (revenues only), Mastercard Q1, McDonald’s Q1, Mitsui FY, Moderna Q1, Morgan Sindall AGM and trading update, Persimmon AGM and trading update, Prudential Financial Q1, Schroders Q1 update, Stryker Q1, Sumitomo FY, Thomson Reuters Q1, Whitbread FY

Friday

• Australia: March producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data

• China, Russia: Labour Day holiday continues. Financial markets closed

• EU: March employment figures

• Eurozone, France, Germany, India, Italy, Spain: HCOB/HSBC manufacturing PMI data

• US: April employment report

• Results: Bank of Ireland interim management statement, Chevron Q1, Cigna Q1, Danske Bank Q1, ExxonMobil Q1, Ingersoll Rand Q1, ING Groep Q1, Itochu FY, Mitsubishi FY, NatWest Q1, Pearson Q1 trading update, Shell Q1, Standard Chartered Q1

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• Belgium: Nato hosts a ceremony at its Brussels headquarters to mark the 70th anniversary of German accession to the military bloc, including a wreath-laying ceremony by Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte and Germany’s president Frank-Walter Steinmeier

• Canada: general election

• Trinidad and Tobago: parliamentary elections

Tuesday

• Philippines: Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba begins a visit to the country, where he will meet his Philippine counterpart Ferdinand Marcos Jr

• Poland: 13 EU member states, border the Baltic, Adriatic and Black seas, begin a two-day summit in Warsaw for the Three Seas Initiative, a politically inspired, commercially driven club to improve connectivity between these countries

Wednesday

• Cayman Islands: parliamentary elections

• US: Trump administration’s 100th day in office

• Vietnam: 50th anniversary of the end of the Vietnam war, finishing 20 years of fighting. Commemorations will take place across the country

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

• Trump administration’s 25 per cent tariff on imported car parts to the US due to come into force

• Australia: federal election

• Singapore: general election

• US: Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway holds its annual shareholder meeting, during which it will release its first-quarter earnings

Sunday

• Italy: Asian Development Bank annual meeting begins a four-day session in Milan

• Romania: presidential election

• US: Investors, dealmakers and government officials gather for the annual four-day Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills