{"id":48547,"date":"2026-11-02T18:48:25","date_gmt":"2026-11-02T18:48:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/?p=48547"},"modified":"2026-11-02T18:48:25","modified_gmt":"2026-11-02T18:48:25","slug":"bitcoin-price-analysis-is-the-september-rally-structure-in-danger-as-btc-hangs-by-a-thread","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/?p=48547","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Price Analysis: Is the September Rally Structure in Danger as BTC Hangs by a Thread?"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize around $78K after posting its fourth straight weekly loss, with sentiment weighed down by the record Binance hack and a $643.3 million withdrawal from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on Friday. The asset now sits inside a key demand zone that could decide whether the September rally structure survives.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the Velocity metric has climbed to its highest level since late 2024, suggesting that supply is circulating more actively even as prices decline.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart<\/h2>\n

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin continues to trade within the broad ascending channel that has guided the recovery from the summer lows near $58K. However, the rejection from the upper boundary and the $86K\u2013$90K supply zone in late September has given way to a series of lower highs, and last week\u2019s sell-off pushed BTC below the channel\u2019s midline around $82K.<\/p>\n

The price is now trading inside the $75K\u2013$78K order block, which formed the base of the sharp September rally. The lower wick printed during the hack-driven drop shows buyers responding here, but the rebound has so far been shallow. Holding this zone would allow BTC to attempt a return toward the channel midline and, eventually, the $86K\u2013$90K supply zone.<\/p>\n

Conversely, a daily candle closing below $75K would expose the channel\u2019s lower boundary near $73K. A breakdown through that confluence would invalidate the structure that has carried the price higher since mid-year and raise the risk of a deeper correction. For now, the channel remains intact, but sellers clearly control short-term momentum.<\/p>\n

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BTC\/USDT 4-Hour Chart<\/h2>\n

The 4-hour chart offers a clearer view of the deterioration. Bitcoin broke below the lower boundary of its orange ascending channel around October 23, and the subsequent rebound stalled inside the $80K-$82K supply zone, effectively retesting the broken trendline from below. That rejection was followed by a sharp sell-off as news of the Binance breach hit the market.<\/p>\n

Buyers stepped in at the $76K demand zone, which sits within the daily order block, and the price has since recovered toward $79K before easing back to around $78K. A sustained move above $79K could bring the $80K-$82K supply zone back into play, while reclaiming it would open the way toward $85K, where the last significant rebound was rejected.<\/p>\n

On the downside, losing $76K would likely trigger a test of the lower edge of demand near $75K, the last support before the daily channel\u2019s lower boundary. Until BTC reclaims the broken channel, the short-term structure favors sellers, with rebounds likely to meet overhead supply.<\/p>\n

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On-Chain Analysis<\/h2>\n

Velocity on CryptoQuant measures how quickly coins circulate through the network relative to the total supply, applying the economic concept of money velocity to on-chain activity. Rising readings indicate that coins are changing hands more frequently, while declining readings point to long-term holding behavior and supply moving into dormant addresses.<\/p>\n

The metric fell steadily from roughly 15.8 in early 2024 to around 12.1 in October 2025, a period in which Bitcoin rallied to its all-time high near $125K. That combination reflected classic scarcity dynamics, with a growing share of supply held off the market. Since then, the trend has reversed, with velocity rising to approximately 14.6 even as the price dropped sharply.<\/p>\n

This divergence suggests that previously idle coins are re-entering circulation, a pattern more consistent with redistribution than accumulation, and one that weakens the supply-squeeze dynamic behind the 2025 rally. However, velocity alone cannot reveal who is buying or selling. If it keeps climbing while BTC struggles below $82K, the $75K order block would likely face increasing pressure, which could reverse the whole BTC price rebound since summer.<\/p>\n

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The post Bitcoin Price Analysis: Is the September Rally Structure in Danger as BTC Hangs by a Thread?<\/a> appeared first on CryptoPotato<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n
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