\n<\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tThe analyst argues that each cycle has produced a smaller drawdown before pushing Bitcoin to a higher peak.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
Analyst Crypto Patel says Bitcoin has followed the exact same cycle three times in a row, and he is betting the current downturn sets up another run worth ten times the cryptocurrency\u2019s price from here.<\/p>\n
The call, posted Wednesday, arrives as Bitcoin sits at around $65,000, down almost half from its October 2025 all-time high, with trading activity thinning to levels not seen since the last bear market.<\/p>\n
Crypto Patel posted his analysis on X, describing<\/a> what he calls the \u201cBTC Cycle Blueprint.\u201d His comparison begins with Bitcoin\u2019s first major cycle, when it reached $19,666 before falling 84% and later rallying to $69,000.<\/p>\n The second cycle followed a similar sequence. Bitcoin fell 77% from its $69,000 peak before finding support around a bullish order block and fair value gap. It then climbed to a record $126,000.<\/p>\n Patel believes the current cycle is following the same structure. Bitcoin went past $126,000 before entering a decline that he estimates at 69%, with the expectation that the market will form another bullish order block around $50,000 to $40,000.<\/p>\n \u201cEach Cycle: Smaller Drawdown. Higher High. Same Playbook,\u201d the analyst wrote, adding that Bitcoin is currently sitting near the area he believes will become that bullish order block. He then assigned a projected target of 1,000% upside.<\/p>\n Patel\u2019s argument rests heavily on repetition. According to him, the pattern has \u201cNEVER Failed,\u201d although the post does not provide a statistical test of the pattern or explain how the 1,000% target is calculated. The forecast therefore remains a technical thesis rather than a confirmed market path.<\/p>\n The OG cryptocurrency has traded in a tight band this week, moving between roughly $62,500 and $65,000 over the past seven days, and Ted Pillows noted<\/a> earlier today that BTC needs to hold $65,500 or risk another leg down to $62,500.<\/p>\n Others are also watching for another Bitcoin decline, although their targets differ. One of them, Tony Research, said<\/a> that traders should not short Bitcoin at current levels. They expect a move toward $68,500 to $69,400 and then $72,000 before a possible final drop in late August or September. They also expect selected altcoins to gain 40% to 100% if Bitcoin reaches the higher targets.<\/p>\n But not everyone agrees the four-year cycle Patel is describing still applies, with market watchers, including Scott Melker and Arthur Hayes, previously questioning<\/a> whether the pattern holds this time around.<\/p>\n Bitcoin has not closed above $100,000 since November 13, 2025, and SkyBridge Capital\u2019s Anthony Scaramucci told<\/a> CNBC this week that the next halving, expected around April 2028, should \u201ctighten prices\u201d enough to push the asset back over that mark. Scaramucci made a similar call before the 2024 halving, predicting BTC would reach $170,000, but it peaked at just over $126,000 instead.<\/p>\nYou may also like:<\/h3>\n
Where the Bigger Picture Stands<\/h2>\n