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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tBitcoin has historically struggled before US midterms, with past recoveries beginning once election uncertainty faded.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
Bitcoin\u2019s market cycles could be more closely linked to the US political calendar than many investors think, according to a new analysis shared by Alphractal founder Joao Wedson.<\/p>\n
In a July 30 post on X, he showed that the flagship cryptocurrency has repeatedly entered bear markets before US midterm elections, only to recover after voters head to the polls.<\/p>\n
Wedson compared<\/a> Bitcoin\u2019s price history against US election cycles and found what he described as a recurring sequence. According to his chart, BTC enters a bear market about one year before every US midterm election before starting a longer bull market right after the vote.\u00a0In some cycles, the market bottom formed just days before the election, while in others it came shortly afterward.<\/p>\n He also noted that presidential elections have produced a different effect, with Bitcoin rallying strongly every time a president won an election before approaching a major cycle top not long after the president was inaugurated.<\/p>\n \u201cData reveals patterns that narratives often miss,\u201d wrote the analyst.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n According to Wedson, XRP offers an even more striking example, starting a steep rally on the day Donald Trump won the 2024 election and reaching a local peak on January 20, 2025, the day Trump was inaugurated.<\/p>\n His observations are quite similar to those made in a Binance Research report from earlier in the year, which found<\/a> that BTC has historically struggled during US midterm election years before posting gains once the political uncertainty faded.<\/p>\n Per the report, Bitcoin dropped by an average of about 56% during completed midterm cycles since 2014, before returning an average gain of roughly 54% in the year after the elections.<\/p>\n Wedson had earlier contended<\/a> that while many market participants believed Bitcoin has already established a bottom, \u201ca price recovery alone does not confirm a structural shift.\u201d He said there must be clear signs of capitulation and deleveraging, as well as short-term investors bringing in new capital before such a conclusion can be reached.<\/p>\n There\u2019s still about three months left before Americans go to the polls, and BTC is currently hovering around the $64,000 level, which is nearly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of over $126,000, with data from CoinGecko showing it dipped about 2.5% in seven days.<\/p>\n However, it\u2019s still up nearly 8% across the last month, after weathering the latest Federal Reserve decision to leave interest rates unchanged<\/a> at 3.50% to 3.75%.<\/p>\n\n
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Macro Conditions Could Shape Whether History Repeats<\/h2>\n
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