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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tPolymarket rival, Kalshi, grew its prediction market share in Q2.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
Notional volume on prediction markets climbed sharply in the second quarter of 2026 and reached $113.8 billion, up 48.7% from the previous quarter.<\/p>\n
CoinGecko found that the momentum accelerated in June, when monthly notional volume surged to a record $50.7 billion, which represented a 92% increase from the average monthly volume of $27.5 billion posted over the prior five months.<\/p>\n
In its latest report, CoinGecko attributed<\/a> the spike to a packed calendar of major sporting events beginning in late May, such as the UEFA Champions League Final, Stanley Cup, NBA Finals, FIFA World Cup, and Wimbledon. The sports-driven activity was particularly evident on Polymarket, where sports-related contracts accounted for 81% of trading volume in June, as opposed to 40% in January.<\/p>\n Despite this increase in sports trading, Polymarket\u2019s market share declined quarter-over-quarter from 35.8% to 30.2%. On the other hand, Kalshi has managed to expand its lead after increasing its share from 42.4% in the first quarter to almost 58.9% in the second.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, Rothera, the Robinhood\/Susquehanna International Group joint venture launched in May, quickly climbed to fourth place in June with $2.1 billion in notional volume.<\/p>\n Prediction markets gained momentum. Last month, Cboe Global Markets launched<\/a> Cboe Predicts, its new prediction markets platform featuring securities-based binary option contracts tied to the Mini-S&P 500 Index. The contracts, trading under the symbols XSPBW and XSPBX, are already available through Interactive Brokers, while Charles Schwab is expected to add access in the coming months.<\/p>\n Cboe also said more brokerage firms are likely to support the products over time. The contracts allow traders to take a \u201cyes\u201d or \u201cno\u201d position on whether the Mini-S&P 500 Index will settle at or above a specified level at expiration.<\/p>\n Additionally, the New York Times reported<\/a> that Meta is developing a standalone prediction markets app called Arena, where users would predict real-world outcomes using points instead of real money. According to the report, the experimental project is a top priority for CEO Mark Zuckerberg and could eventually expand to real-money betting. The initiative follows Meta\u2019s earlier Forecast app, a points-based prediction platform launched in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic before being discontinued in 2022.<\/p>\nWall Street and Big Tech Into the Race<\/h2>\n
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