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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tStrategy\u2019s valuation metrics are being used as an early warning signal for BTC, with the current mNAV near levels seen in 2022.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
Jiang Zhuoer, co-founder of BTC.TOP mining pool, on June 25 published a long-term prediction for Bitcoin (BTC), saying it could bottom between $42,000 and $44,000 sometime in the October-to-December 2026 window.<\/p>\n
Jiang made the call while the OG cryptocurrency was trading near $62,000, down about 51% from its all-time high above $126,000, which was set in October 2025.<\/p>\n
According to the miner, Strategy\u2019s mNAV ratio, which compares its share price with the value of its BTC holdings per share, has entered<\/a> the same range seen during the previous bear market.\u00a0An mNAV reading above 1 suggests that investors are paying a premium, while a figure below 1 means there\u2019s pessimism brewing.<\/p>\n Per Jiang\u2019s assessment, that metric has fallen to 0.72, very close to the 0.70 level recorded in May 2022. He argued that the current reading may signal a sentiment low for Strategy investors, although not necessarily for Bitcoin itself.<\/p>\n When mNAV bottomed in May 2022, as the analyst explained, BTC was trading near $31,000 and went on to reach a cycle low six months later when it dropped to around $15,000. If that same lag applies now, Jiang postulated that the flagship crypto will reach a low in Q4 2026, with prices falling to roughly $42,000 to $44,000.<\/p>\n His prediction also relied on a 4-year market model that compares Bitcoin\u2019s long-term price swings to a bouncing ball, where each bounce results in the loss of amplitude. According to the model, as BTC\u2019s total market cap grows, its volatility naturally decreases cycle by cycle.<\/p>\n Strategy MSTR stock recently fell to its lowest level since February 2024, and was changing hands at just above $94 at the time of writing. Meanwhile, the company\u2019s preferred STRC shares have also been trading below<\/a> their par value of $100, with data from the firm showing it stood at $80.84, and this, Jiang says, has also contributed to the current market stress, with other analysts suggesting it could pressure Strategy to sell<\/a> some of its Bitcoin.<\/p>\n Bitcoin\u2019s current weakness is not hard to see in the data, with Santiment noting<\/a> earlier today that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC had dumped 45,074 coins over an 8-day period, helping push<\/a> the asset below $60,000 for the first time since October 2024. CoinGlass data showed nearly $416 million in Bitcoin liquidations in the last day, with long positions accounting for more than $319 million.<\/p>\n Analyst Wise Crypto described<\/a> the move as a leverage flush, with more than 175,000 traders affected when BTC briefly touched $59,000. The asset has since made some recovery from that dip and was trading close to $62,000 at press time, although it was still down about 4% in the last week and almost 20% over the past month.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, another market watcher, Ali Martinez, flagged<\/a> that the Coinbase Premium Index has been negative for 46 straight days. The metric compares the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase with offshore exchanges, with a negative reading suggesting weaker demand from American investors and institutions.<\/p>\n LIMITED OFFER for CryptoPotato readers at Bybit: Use this link<\/a> to register and open a $500 FREE position on any coin!<\/b><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\nYou may also like:<\/h3>\n
Market Context Around Jiang\u2019s Call<\/h2>\n
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