{"id":44631,"date":"2026-06-12T18:43:15","date_gmt":"2026-06-12T18:43:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/?p=44631"},"modified":"2026-06-12T18:43:15","modified_gmt":"2026-06-12T18:43:15","slug":"social-security-cola-for-2027-may-be-4-7-amid-inflation-estimate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/?p=44631","title":{"rendered":"Social Security COLA for 2027 may be 4.7% amid inflation: Estimate"},"content":{"rendered":"

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A customer shops for produce in an H-E-B grocery store on May 11, 2026 in Austin, Texas.<\/p>\n

Brandon Bell | Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Consumer prices rose in May, pushing the annual inflation rate<\/a> to its highest level in three years, according to new government data<\/a>.<\/p>\n

That points to a 4.7% Social Security COLA for 2027, according to a new estimate from Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst. Last month, Johnson had forecast a 4.2% COLA<\/a> for next year.<\/p>\n

“There’s a considerable likelihood that it’s going to climb even higher than 4.7% as data continues to come in, especially on the gasoline prices,” Johnson said. \u00a0<\/p>\n

The Social Security Administration typically announces the COLA for the following year in October, and the change is based on third-quarter data.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan senior group, now forecasts a 3.8% COLA<\/a> for 2027, down from its 3.9% May estimate. The estimate did not note a reason for the decline, and the Senior Citizens League was not available for comment by press time.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Read more CNBC personal finance coverage<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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In 2026, about 75 million Social Security and Supplemental Security Income beneficiaries saw a 2.8% boost<\/a> to their monthly checks through the cost-of-living adjustment.<\/p>\n

But while that increased the average $2,000 monthly benefit by about $56, beneficiaries would need $94 per month to keep up with inflation, according to Johnson. <\/p>\n

The annual COLA has averaged about 3.1% over the past decade, according to the Social Security Administration.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Social Security’s COLA is calculated using a subset of the consumer price index known as the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W.<\/p>\n

Broad CPI inflation rose 4.2% over the past 12 months as of May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the CPI-W is up 4.4% over the past 12 months. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Price increases affecting the COLA forecast<\/h2>\n
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The categories that have seen the biggest jump in the CPI-W over the past 12 months include fuel oil, which has shot up 64.1%; gasoline, 40.7%; and airfare, 25%. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Older Americans continue to grapple with higher costs. <\/p>\n

In the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, inflation rose to new highs, prompting larger Social Security COLAs<\/a> of 5.9% in 2022 and 8.7% in 2023.<\/p>\n

Yet while the pace of inflation subsided, bringing Social Security cost-of-living adjustments down in subsequent years, consumer prices have mostly stayed higher. <\/p>\n

A majority, or 69%, of adults ages 50 and over say they worry that prices are rising faster than their income, according to AARP’s most recent financial security trends survey<\/a>, fielded in January. <\/p>\n

Meanwhile, 61% of older Americans say the average $2,000 monthly Social Security payment is not enough, the survey found.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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There has been debate among experts and lawmakers as to whether the CPI-W accurately reflects the prices older Americans experience. <\/p>\n

To be sure, everyone has a personal inflation rate<\/a> based on their individual spending needs and factors such as where they live.<\/p>\n

Beef and coffee<\/a> are among the grocery categories<\/a> with the highest inflation for the broader consumer price index. Yet the average price for a pound of beef varies based on location.<\/p>\n

In response to high food prices, seniors may be eating less frequently\u00a0and substituting less expensive items for pricier ones, such as\u00a0beef, to help curb their grocery costs, Johnson said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
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