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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tThe analyst is arguing that weakening demand rather than investors\u2019 panic selling has been the primary force behind BTC\u2019s recent weakness.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
Bitcoin\u2019s slide toward a key on-chain support level has sparked debate after market analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera argued that the behavior usually seen at major market bottoms is still missing.<\/p>\n
According to him, BTC came within 9% of the price level that has historically ended bear markets, but investors didn\u2019t sell in the numbers usually associated with capitulation.<\/p>\n
The metric in question is Bitcoin\u2019s realized price, which is currently around $53,600, and represents the average cost basis across every BTC in circulation.<\/p>\n
In a June 11 post on X, Perera stated<\/a> that in 2018 and 2022, the OG cryptocurrency fell to that level and bounced. Those rebounds, according to him, weren\u2019t coincidences but were because of what happens after Bitcoin comes close to its realized price. Holders often break, selling at a loss in large enough numbers that the supply gets flushed, weak hands leave, and the market finds solid ground again.<\/p>\n But that flush hasn\u2019t happened this time around. In the 2022 capitulation, Perera says holders sold 1.2 million BTC at a loss, but in last week\u2019s drop, the number was only 187,000 units.<\/p>\n Essentially, Bitcoin approached the same price floor without the same behavior, which, per the analyst, is precisely what made that moment ambiguous rather than confirming.<\/p>\n \u201cBitcoin reached the bottom\u2019s address without the bottom\u2019s behavior,\u201d he wrote. \u201cThe flush that clears weak hands and ends bear markets has not happened.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n In his opinion, the dip was driven by disappearing demand rather than panic selling. He pointed to a drop of 652,000 BTC in demand last week, which he described as the worst decline since January 2022, and also noted that spot Bitcoin ETF flows had been hugely negative.<\/p>\n Bitcoin\u2019s cause has not been helped by escalating geopolitical tensions after Iran once again closed<\/a> the Strait of Hormuz following US strikes on its military infrastructure, sending the price of crude oil jumping by more than 2.5%.<\/p>\n Furthermore, the US Consumer Price Index came in at a higher-than-expected 4.2%, effectively ruling out Fed rate cuts and raising the possibility of hikes under the new Federal Reserve Chair, which added to concerns about reduced market liquidity.<\/p>\n One other thing that Perera pointed out in his assessment was that the lack of selling can also be interpreted as a bullish signal.<\/p>\n \u201cThe realized price has marked four of the last four major bottoms, and long-term holders are sitting still rather than selling. That is the bull case,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n That view echoes comments from another market observer, Sykodelic, who noted<\/a> that long-term holders collectively control a record 16.5 million BTC despite many positions sitting below the prices they were bought for.<\/p>\n Other firms have reached similar conclusions while stopping short of calling a bottom. For instance, Grayscale has said<\/a> that Bitcoin currently looks undervalued, even though it warned that the conditions right now are not as extreme as past bear market lows.<\/p>\n LIMITED OFFER for CryptoPotato readers at Bybit: Use this link<\/a> to register and open a $500 FREE position on any coin!<\/b><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
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Long-Term Holders Still Steady Despite Market Pressure<\/h2>\n
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