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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tCoinGecko data revealed that Bitcoin outperformed on US holidays during 11 of the past 14 calendar years analyzed historically.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
A new study by CoinGecko found that buying Bitcoin on US holidays has historically delivered much stronger short-term returns compared to regular trading days.<\/p>\n
The analysis examined Bitcoin\u2019s forward returns across different calendar days between May 1, 2013, and May 8, 2026, focusing on single-day gains after purchase.<\/p>\n
According to the data, US holidays recorded<\/a> an average next-day Bitcoin return of 0.77%, compared to just 0.19% on non-holidays. CoinGecko found that holidays outperformed regular days in 11 of the 14 calendar years included in the study. Among regular weekdays, Mondays and Wednesdays posted the highest average next-day return at 0.38%, while Thursdays were the only day to produce a negative average return of 0.09%.<\/p>\n The report identified New Year\u2019s Day as the strongest-performing holiday for Bitcoin purchases, with an average next-day return of 2.01% across 13 observations and a win rate of 84.6%, meaning Bitcoin rose the following day in 11 out of 13 years. Columbus Day posted the same 84.6% win rate alongside an average return of 1.70%, while Christmas generated a 1.46% average next-day gain with a 53.8% win rate.<\/p>\n CoinGecko said the New Year\u2019s Day pattern may indicate the broader January momentum effect often seen in traditional financial markets, where investors deploy fresh capital at the start of a new year. The study added that Bitcoin may also benefit from a shift away from December tax-loss selling into renewed January positioning. The report noted that Bitcoin\u2019s price on January 1 ranged from $313 in 2015 to $93,507 in 2025, yet the pattern of next-day gains remained relatively consistent throughout the period.<\/p>\n However, not all holidays produced positive results. Martin Luther King Jr. Day recorded the weakest performance with an average next-day negative return of 0.84%, largely influenced by Bitcoin\u2019s 18.65% drop following January 15, 2018, during the early phase of the crypto bear market. Independence Day also averaged a negative return at 0.26%. Veterans Day showed an average gain of 1.75%, but CoinGecko warned that the figure was distorted by a few unusually large rallies, while the holiday\u2019s win rate remained below 50%.<\/p>\n The study also found little meaningful difference in Bitcoin performance between weekdays and weekends. Weekdays averaged a 0.21% positive next-day return compared to 0.22% on weekends, which CoinGecko described as statistically insignificant due to Bitcoin\u2019s 24\/7 trading structure.<\/p>\n Over a one-year holding period, the day of purchase had almost no impact on long-term returns, as average annual gains across all weekdays remained within a narrow 2.4 percentage point range. CoinGecko added that while holiday purchases also showed slightly stronger one-year returns, the effect was likely indicative of broader market cycles rather than a continued holiday-driven trend.<\/p>\n As for Bitcoin\u2019s latest price action, the asset is currently trading back above $80,000 after briefly slipping below that level earlier this week. Market experts said<\/a> the decline was driven by several pressures hitting the market at once. On-chain data showed that Bitcoin exchange outflows had dropped sharply before the selloff, leaving more coins on trading platforms and increasing available sell-side supply.<\/p>\n At the same time, derivatives traders were aggressively building short positions while leveraged long exposure remained high. Once prices started falling, a wave of long liquidations accelerated the move downward. Rising inflation concerns following fresh US CPI and PPI data, alongside heavy whale selling, added further pressure to the market.<\/p>\nYou may also like:<\/h3>\n
Multiple Pressures Hit Bitcoin<\/h2>\n