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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t3 signals converged at the February low: weekly RSI at a 4-year low, the sentiment index at its worst, and BTC retesting the 2021 cycle high.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
Popular crypto analyst Ash Crypto has said that Bitcoin\u2019s drop to around $60,000 in February 2026 was the bottom of the current market cycle, based on a pattern he says has played out precisely across the past two cycles.<\/p>\n
If he\u2019s right, the king cryptocurrency may already be in the early stages of a new leg higher.<\/p>\n
Ash Crypto\u2019s argument<\/a> is simple:<\/p>\n \u201cEach cycle, BTC has made a new ATH,\u201d he wrote on X. \u201cAnd the bottom happened exactly 23 months after making a new ATH.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n To back his theory, he went back to January 2017 when BTC hit an all-time high. This was followed 23 months later by a cycle low in December 2018.<\/p>\n The same thing happened in the cycle after that, the analyst said. BTC hit its peak in December 2020, and 23 months later, in November 2022, it bottomed.<\/p>\n \u201cThis cycle, Bitcoin made a new ATH in March 2024. If it goes by history, the bottom has already happened in February 2026 (23 months),\u201d the analyst concluded.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n This was right around the time BTC touched the $60,000 level, then went back above $70,000.<\/p>\n The timing alone would be easy to dismiss, but Ash Crypto added three technical signals that all fired during the low earlier in the year. The weekly RSI dropped to a four-year low. The sentiment index hit its worst reading on record. And Bitcoin retested the 2021 cycle high.<\/p>\n \u201cAll these things combined have previously marked the bottom for Bitcoin,\u201d he wrote, \u201cand maybe \u2018THIS TIME IT\u2019S NOT DIFFERENT.’\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n On-chain data from analyst Ali Martinez tells<\/a> a similar story, at least partially. Bitcoin\u2019s Sharpe Ratio collapsed to -43 before recovering to around 20, suggesting that the market absorbed the worst of the selling.<\/p>\n At the same time, the share of Bitcoin\u2019s realized market cap held by people who bought within the last month has fallen below 7%, which in past cycles has meant retail is largely gone and supply has settled into stronger hands.<\/p>\n Fellow analyst Ted Pillows is seeing<\/a> things differently. According to him, a small bounce had happened, but he still expected new lows on the higher timeframe.<\/p>\n \u201cThat\u2019s often how it works,\u201d he wrote. \u201cTemporary strength pulls people in and ends up becoming exit liquidity.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Bitcoin was trading around $78,500 at the time of writing, and Ash Crypto sees two paths from here: a daily close above $80,000 that could push BTC to $86,000 to $90,000, or a rejection that pulls it back into the $68,000 to $74,000 range.<\/p>\n Its latest bounce was helped<\/a> along by news of an extended US-Iran ceasefire, which lifted the broader market before fresh tension reports stopped<\/a> the OG crypto just short of $80,000.<\/p>\n On his part, Martinez has flagged $73,700 as the number to watch. Hold it, and the road to $96,000 stays open. Lose it and the bullish bottom call starts to look shaky, with $55,000 back in the conversation.<\/p>\n LIMITED OFFER for CryptoPotato readers at Bybit: Use this link<\/a> to register and open a $500 FREE position on any coin!<\/b><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
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