{"id":43169,"date":"2026-04-20T05:53:06","date_gmt":"2026-04-20T05:53:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/?p=43169"},"modified":"2026-04-20T05:53:06","modified_gmt":"2026-04-20T05:53:06","slug":"seized-ship-vessel-attacks-push-u-s-iran-ceasefire-toward-brink","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/?p=43169","title":{"rendered":"seized ship, vessel attacks push U.S.-Iran ceasefire toward brink"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> \n<\/p>\n<div id=\"RegularArticle-ArticleBody-5\" data-module=\"ArticleBody\" data-test=\"articleBody-2\" data-analytics=\"RegularArticle-articleBody-5-2\"><span class=\"HighlightShare-hidden\" style=\"top:0;left:0\"\/><\/p>\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imageEmbed\" id=\"ArticleBody-InlineImage-108293753\" data-test=\"InlineImage\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-wrapper\">\n<div>\n<p>File photo: Cargo ship Touska, which was fired upon and disabled by the U.S. Navy, before being sized by Marines. Trump said Sunday that the USS Spruance intercepted the Iranian ship, the Touska, and \u201cgave them fair warning to stop.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>South China Morning Post | South China Morning Post | Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Fifty days into the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, tensions escalated again after clashes in the Gulf prolonged shipping disruptions and cast doubt on a fragile ceasefire set to expire this week.  <\/p>\n<p>On Friday, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz fully open to commercial traffic, sending <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/04\/17\/oil-prices-wti-brent-israel-lebanon-ceasefire-trump.html\">crude prices tumbling more than 10%<\/a>. By Saturday, hopes for a fully opened artery quickly unraveled as Tehran reimposed closure of the chokepoint, after <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/donald-trump-jr\/\">President Donald Trump<\/a> refused to end the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. <\/p>\n<p>After a brief pickup in transit attempts on Saturday, shipping traffic in the Gulf <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/04\/17\/iran-trump-strait-hormuz-oil-tanker-traffic.html\">stalled<\/a> once again, with vessels <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/world\/iran\/live-blog\/live-updates-iran-says-strait-hormuz-reverted-strict-control-blames-us-rcna340767\" target=\"_blank\">coming under fire<\/a> mid-passage and being forced to withdraw.  <\/p>\n<p>On Sunday, the U.S. Navy fired on and seized an Iranian container ship in the Gulf of Oman. Trump called Iran&#8217;s actions over the weekend a &#8220;total violation&#8221; of the truce and renewed threats to strike Iranian power plants and bridges if Tehran refuses a deal. <\/p>\n<p>For markets, it was a reminder of the fragility of the two-week ceasefire, and a deal that could bring a lasting end to the war is still far from done. <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/04\/19\/stock-market-today-live-updates.html\">U.S. stock futures fell<\/a> while <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/04\/19\/oil-price-iran-war-strait-hormuz-tanker.html\">crude oil prices surged<\/a> as the U.S. and Iran teetered on the brink of a renewed conflict. <span class=\"QuoteInBody-quoteNameContainer\" data-test=\"QuoteInBody\" id=\"RegularArticle-QuoteInBody-7\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/@CL.1\/\">West Texas Intermediate futures<\/a><span class=\"QuoteInBody-inlineButton\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistContainer\" id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\" data-analytics-id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\"><button class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistButton\" aria-label=\"Add To Watchlist\" data-testid=\"dropdown-btn\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-addWatchListFromTag\"\/><\/button><\/span><\/span><\/span> jumped more than 6% to $89 per barrel shortly after midnight on Monday while and the international benchmark <span class=\"QuoteInBody-quoteNameContainer\" data-test=\"QuoteInBody\" id=\"RegularArticle-QuoteInBody-8\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/@LCO.1\/\">Brent<\/a><span class=\"QuoteInBody-inlineButton\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistContainer\" id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\" data-analytics-id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\"><button class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistButton\" aria-label=\"Add To Watchlist\" data-testid=\"dropdown-btn\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-addWatchListFromTag\"\/><\/button><\/span><\/span><\/span> climbed 5.6% to $95.50 a barrel.  <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imageEmbed InlineImage-inlineInfographic\" id=\"ArticleBody-InlineImage-108274282\" data-test=\"InlineImage\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imagePlaceholder\" style=\"padding-bottom:74.62686567164178%\">\n<div><button class=\"InlineImage-closeEnlargedImage\"><svg width=\"20\" height=\"20\" viewbox=\"0 0 20 20\" fill=\"#002F6C\" aria-labelledby=\"title desc\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" data-analytic-id=\"expand-icon\" class=\"InlineImage-background\"><title>Zoom In Icon<\/title><desc>Arrows pointing outwards<\/desc><circle cx=\"10\" cy=\"10\" r=\"10\" fill=\"white\" stroke=\"#002F6C\"\/><path d=\"M9.20185 10.7982C8.96049 10.5568 8.57037 10.5568 8.32901 10.7982L5.67901 13.4482V11.2346C5.67901 10.8938 5.40308 10.6173 5.06173 10.6173C4.72037 10.6173 4.44444 10.8938 4.44444 11.2346V14.9383C4.44444 15.279 4.72037 15.5556 5.06173 15.5556H8.76543C9.10679 15.5556 9.38271 15.279 9.38271 14.9383C9.38271 14.5975 9.10679 14.321 8.76543 14.321H6.55185L9.20185 11.671C9.44321 11.4296 9.44321 11.0395 9.20185 10.7982ZM14.9383 4.44446H11.2346C10.8932 4.44446 10.6173 4.721 10.6173 5.06174C10.6173 5.40248 10.8932 5.67903 11.2346 5.67903H13.4481L10.7981 8.32903C10.5568 8.57038 10.5568 8.96051 10.7981 9.20187C10.9185 9.32224 11.0765 9.38273 11.2346 9.38273C11.3926 9.38273 11.5506 9.32224 11.671 9.20187L14.321 6.55187V8.76545C14.321 9.10619 14.5969 9.38273 14.9383 9.38273C15.2796 9.38273 15.5556 9.10619 15.5556 8.76545V5.06174C15.5556 4.721 15.2796 4.44446 14.9383 4.44446Z\"\/><\/svg><\/button><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>&#8220;We had the most violent day in the strait on Saturday that we&#8217;ve had since the beginning of this crisis, and things don&#8217;t seem to be getting any better,&#8221; said Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context. <\/p>\n<p>&#8220;While we keep getting these sell-offs and it keeps seeming like we&#8217;re about to finally get that, the football \u2014 Lucy pulls it away \u2014 and we&#8217;re back to where we started,&#8221; Johnston told CNBC&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/asia-squawk-box\/\">&#8220;Squawk Box Asia&#8221;<\/a> on Monday.  <\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The strait still isn&#8217;t flowing, and 13 million barrels a day of production remains shut-in. We&#8217;re losing it every single day this goes on,&#8221; said Johnston, who is also a lecturer at the University of Toronto&#8217;s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy.   <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2 id=\"the-best-realistic-outcome\" class=\"ArticleBody-subtitle\"><a id=\"headline0\"\/>The best realistic outcome<\/h2>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Much will hinge on whether the U.S. and Iran will meet for a second round of peace negotiations in Pakistan later this week, as the ceasefire is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/04\/16\/iran-war-oil-price-strait-hormuz.html\">set to expire on Tuesday<\/a>.  <\/p>\n<p>Trump said that the American and Iranian negotiators would resume talks in Islamabad on Monday. Iran, however, has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/04\/19\/iran-says-talks-continue-while-it-retains-control-of-strait-of-hormuz-.html\">denied that it would participate<\/a> in the meeting, citing what it called Washington&#8217;s &#8220;excessive demands, unrealistic expectations, constant shifts in stance&#8221; and the ongoing blockade as a breach of the ceasefire.<\/p>\n<p>The first round of talks<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/04\/11\/us-iran-talks-set-to-begin-in-islamabad-after-delegations-arrive.html\"> on Apr.12<\/a> between Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi failed to yield an agreement. Washington reportedly proposed a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/live\/2026\/04\/13\/world\/iran-war-trump-news\/heres-the-latest?smid=url-share\" target=\"_blank\">20-year pause on Iranian uranium<\/a> enrichment, a request that Iranian leaders rejected, insisting on 5 years. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<blockquote data-test=\"Pullquote\">\n<div class=\"Pullquote-pullquote\" style=\"border-top-color:#002f6c\">\n<div>\n<p>Until, and unless the U.S. negotiating team rids itself of the misconception that military victory equals strategic dominance, we&#8217;re not going to get to a solution.<\/p>\n<div class=\"Pullquote-sourceWrapper\">\n<p>Alan Eyre<\/p>\n<p>Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow at the Middle East Institute<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Underlying differences between Washington and Tehran run deeper than the current impasse, said Alan Eyre, a distinguished diplomatic fellow at the Middle East Institute and former member of the U.S. team that negotiated the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. <\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The U.S. side has really not been focused on negotiation per se. What they&#8217;ve been waiting for is Iranian capitulation,&#8221; Eyre said. &#8220;Until and unless the U.S. negotiating team rids itself of the misconception that military victory equals strategic dominance, we&#8217;re not going to get to a solution.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Eyre warns that the latest flashpoints risk taking the conflict a leg higher in the near term. &#8220;There&#8217;s an escalatory predisposition here where both sides could escalate and go back into a shooting war, which no one wants.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>While a productive round of negotiations in Islamabad remains a possibility, it is &#8220;unfortunately more likely to just go the other way \u2014 a resumption of hostilities,&#8221; Eyre added. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2 id=\"high-stake-gamble\" class=\"ArticleBody-subtitle\"><a id=\"headline1\"\/>High-stake gamble <\/h2>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>The economic costs of the conflict are mounting as the Strait of Hormuz \u2014 which normally carries roughly one-fifth of global oil supply \u2014 has been effectively closed for nearly two months. <\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The crisis is one of lost time and lost production,&#8221; Johnston said, estimating supply disruptions of around 13 million barrels of crude, condensates, and natural gas liquids per day. <\/p>\n<p>&#8220;That cumulative effect has already breached above half a billion barrels,&#8221; he said, warning that even an imminent deal announcement would not immediately unwind the damage. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"Placeholder-ArticleBody-Video-108293733\">\n<div role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" id=\"Placeholder-ArticleBody-Video-108293733\" class=\"PlaceHolder-wrapper\" data-vilynx-id=\"7000410186\" data-test=\"VideoPlaceHolder\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-videoEmbed\" id=\"InlineVideo-0\" data-test=\"InlineVideo\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-inlineThumbnailContainer\"><span class=\"InlineVideo-videoButton\"\/><span\/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Even if a deal is reached, experts warn that it could <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/04\/09\/tankers-return-to-hormuz-ceasefire-disruption-to-last-weeks.html\">take months<\/a> to claw back the supply lost over recent weeks of closures, keeping oil prices elevated for longer. <\/p>\n<p>&#8220;If we actually got the strait open, we would probably see another $10 to $20 a barrel immediate rout because of the speculative hot money. But at the end of the day, we&#8217;d dump on day-one and then claw ourselves back higher \u2014 probably into the $80 and $90 \u2014 to reflect the [oil] scarcity that&#8217;s ongoing.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Crude prices have surged over 30% since the war broke out, with Brent briefly topping $110 a barrel for the first time in roughly four years, according to LSEG data, before easing on hopes for a breakthrough. <\/p>\n<p>More than 500 million barrels of crude and condensate have been knocked out of the global \u2060market \u2014 the largest energy supply disruption in modern history, according to Kpler data. <\/p>\n<p>Despite the severity of the energy disruption, U.S. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/04\/16\/stocks-record-highs-iran-war.html\">equity markets have remained largely resilient<\/a>, as investors shrugged off the conflict as a blip that will be resolved relatively quickly.  <\/p>\n<p>Vishnu Varathan, head of macro research at Mizuho Bank, however, cautioned that the optimism may be premature. &#8220;We can&#8217;t get prematurely euphoric about any deal signed, because the lingering adverse effects mean we don&#8217;t get out of this quickly.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/blogs\/articles\/2026\/04\/14\/war-darkens-global-economic-outlook-and-reshapes-policy-priorities\" target=\"_blank\">global growth will inevitably take a hit<\/a> even if the ceasefire holds, citing uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz as a persistent drag, pushing up energy costs and inflation. <\/p>\n<p>&#8220;It&#8217;s clear we&#8217;re not going back to the Goldilocks scenario,&#8221; said Brian Arcese, portfolio manager at Foord Asset Management, referring to a scenario of stable growth and low inflation. The longer the Strait remains closed, the greater the risk to the global economy, he said, although the actual extent of the damage can shift on &#8220;a daily and weekly basis.&#8221; <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ArticleBody-googlePreferredSourceContainer\" data-module=\"GooglePreferredSource\" data-id=\"RegularArticle-GooglePreferredSource-5\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/preferences\/source?q=https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/04\/20\/us-iran-war-middle-east-conflict-peace-deal-strait-hormuz-shipping-ceasefire-tensions.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"File photo: Cargo ship Touska, which was fired upon and disabled by the U.S. Navy, before being sized&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":43170,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-43169","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-markets","8":"cs-entry","9":"cs-video-wrap"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43169","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=43169"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43169\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/43170"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=43169"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=43169"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=43169"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}