{"id":43100,"date":"2026-04-16T19:45:17","date_gmt":"2026-04-16T19:45:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/?p=43100"},"modified":"2026-04-16T19:45:17","modified_gmt":"2026-04-16T19:45:17","slug":"stocks-have-touched-record-highs-despite-iran-war-heres-why","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/?p=43100","title":{"rendered":"Stocks have touched record highs despite Iran war. Here&#8217;s why"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> \n<\/p>\n<div id=\"RegularArticle-ArticleBody-5\" data-module=\"ArticleBody\" data-test=\"articleBody-2\" data-analytics=\"RegularArticle-articleBody-5-2\"><span class=\"HighlightShare-hidden\" style=\"top:0;left:0\"\/><\/p>\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imageEmbed\" id=\"ArticleBody-InlineImage-108292561\" data-test=\"InlineImage\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-wrapper\">\n<div>\n<p>Traders work at the New York Stock Exchange on April 16, 2026. <\/p>\n<p>NYSE<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>U.S. stocks <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/04\/14\/stock-market-today-live-updates.html\">climbed to record highs<\/a> on Wednesday against a backdrop of war, an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/04\/13\/trump-hormuz-blockade-oil-shock-china-iran-india-vessels-peace-talks.html\">oil supply shock<\/a> and economic forecasts <a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/blogs\/articles\/2026\/04\/14\/war-darkens-global-economic-outlook-and-reshapes-policy-priorities\" target=\"_blank\">warning<\/a> of stunted growth amid a protracted conflict. <\/p>\n<p>Many investors may be thinking: Why? <\/p>\n<p>Largely, it&#8217;s because the stock market is a barometer of what investors think will happen in the future, rather than an assessment of the present day, according to economists and market analysts. <\/p>\n<p>Investors are essentially shrugging off the Middle East conflict as a blip that will be resolved relatively quickly, they said. <\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The stock market isn&#8217;t trying to price what&#8217;s happening today,&#8221; said Joe Seydl, a senior markets economist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. &#8220;The stock market is always trying to price what the world is going to look like six to 12 months from now.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2 id=\"why-stocks-have-been-resilient\" class=\"ArticleBody-subtitle\"><a id=\"headline0\"\/>Why stocks have been &#8216;resilient&#8217;<\/h2>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>The <span class=\"QuoteInBody-quoteNameContainer\" data-test=\"QuoteInBody\" id=\"RegularArticle-QuoteInBody-4\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/.SPX\/\">S&amp;P 500<\/a><span class=\"QuoteInBody-inlineButton\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistContainer\" id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\" data-analytics-id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\"><button class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistButton\" aria-label=\"Add To Watchlist\" data-testid=\"dropdown-btn\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-addWatchListFromTag\"\/><\/button><\/span><\/span><\/span>, a U.S. stock index, fell about 8% in the initial weeks of the Iran war, from the start of the conflict on Feb. 28 to a recent low on March 30. <\/p>\n<p>But stocks have <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/04\/14\/gen-z-investors-stock-market-volatility.html\">rebounded<\/a> since then, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/04\/14\/cnbc-daily-open-sp-stages-a-comeback-erasing-all-iran-war-losses.html\">erasing all losses<\/a> since the beginning of the war. The S&amp;P 500 closed at an all-time high on Wednesday \u2014 about 11% higher than its nadir at the end of March. <\/p>\n<p>The index had extended the rally during Thursday trading as of late afternoon ET. <\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The market has remained very resilient in the face of the war and has rallied strongly on the prospect that it will be resolved,&#8221; said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody&#8217;s. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"Placeholder-ArticleBody-Video-108292022\">\n<div role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" id=\"Placeholder-ArticleBody-Video-108292022\" class=\"PlaceHolder-wrapper\" data-vilynx-id=\"7000409805\" data-test=\"VideoPlaceHolder\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-videoEmbed\" id=\"InlineVideo-0\" data-test=\"InlineVideo\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-inlineThumbnailContainer\"><span class=\"InlineVideo-videoButton\"\/><span\/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imageEmbed\" id=\"ArticleBody-InlineImage-108289219\" data-test=\"InlineImage\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-wrapper\">\n<div>\n<p>A ship waits to pass through the Strait of Hormuz following the two-week temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran, which is conditional on the opening of the strait, in Oman on April 8, 2026.<\/p>\n<p>Shady Alassar | Anadolu | Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>And while investors cheered the possibility of a diplomatic off-ramp to the conflict, the temporary ceasefire <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/video\/2026\/04\/09\/us-iran-ceasefire-proves-fragile-as-tehran-claims-violations.html\">has appeared tenuous<\/a>, with the U.S. and Iran each accusing the other of breaking the agreement. <\/p>\n<p>Nations haven&#8217;t been able to reach a peace deal ahead of the ceasefire&#8217;s end. Vice President JD Vance <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/04\/11\/us-iran-talks-set-to-begin-in-islamabad-after-delegations-arrive.html\">said \u200bU.S. officials \u2060left peace talks in Pakistan over the weekend<\/a> after the Iranian delegation refused to agree to American demands not to develop a nuclear weapon.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2 id=\"the-markets-have-memory\" class=\"ArticleBody-subtitle\"><a id=\"headline1\"\/>The markets &#8216;have memory&#8217; <\/h2>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Ultimately, the stock market is signaling a collective belief that tensions will ratchet down, the war will end in the near term and oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will normalize, economists said. <\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s largely because investors have been conditioned to believe that President Donald Trump will back off if the economic pain becomes too intense, economists said \u2014 the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/04\/08\/trump-taco-many-on-wall-street-saw-this-stock-rally-coming.html\">so-called &#8220;TACO&#8221; trade<\/a>, shorthand for &#8220;Trump always chickens out.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Investors strongly believe \u2014 and have been conditioned to believe \u2014 he&#8217;s going to stand down, find a way to pivot, declare victory and move on,&#8221; Zandi said. <\/p>\n<p>Trump has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/05\/28\/trump-tariffs-taco-trade-chickening-out.html\">pushed back on the notion of backing down<\/a>, framing his brinkmanship as a savvy negotiating tactic. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<div class=\"RelatedContent-relatedContent\" id=\"RegularArticle-RelatedContent-1\">\n<div class=\"RelatedContent-container\">\n<div class=\"RelatedContent-nonCollapsibleContent\">\n<h2 id=\"read-more-cnbc-personal-finance-coverage\" class=\"RelatedContent-header\">Read more CNBC personal finance coverage<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Economists pointed to a recent example of this dynamic: in April 2025 during so-called liberation day, when the Trump administration levied a host of tariffs on U.S. trading partners. <\/p>\n<p>Within days \u2014 after the stock market had cratered more than 12% \u2014 Trump <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/04\/03\/one-year-of-taco-how-the-trade-has-fared-since-liberation-day.html\">announced a 90-day pause on those tariffs<\/a>. Stocks then saw <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/04\/08\/stock-market-today-live-updates-.html\">one of their biggest daily rallies in history<\/a> following Trump&#8217;s reversal. <\/p>\n<p>Investors remember that Trump often de-escalates geopolitical shocks \u2014 which is why they&#8217;ve seized on positive headlines that hint at progress in peace talks, for example, Seydl said. <\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The markets have memory,&#8221; Seydl said. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2 id=\"ai-stocks-and-the-tech-boom\" class=\"ArticleBody-subtitle\"><a id=\"headline2\"\/>AI stocks and the &#8216;tech boom&#8217;<\/h2>\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imageEmbed\" id=\"ArticleBody-InlineImage-108292448\" data-test=\"InlineImage\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-wrapper\">\n<div>\n<p>Traders celebrating at the New York Stock Exchange on April 15, 2026, as the S&amp;P 500 (^GSPC) closed above the 7,000 level for the first time in history, setting a new record high.<\/p>\n<p>NYSE<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>There are other factors underpinning market resilience during wartime, economists said. <\/p>\n<p>One is the investors&#8217; enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and technology stocks, which account for almost half of the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s market capitalization, Zandi said. <\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Those stocks run on their own dynamic independent of anything, including the war in Iran,&#8221; Zandi said. &#8220;I think we would have been down a lot more and it would have been harder for us to recover had it not been for the very, very optimistic perspectives on AI.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>We&#8217;re in the middle of a &#8220;tech boom&#8221; \u2014 and investors are likely to remain optimistic until they think the tech cycle has run its course, Seydl said. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"Placeholder-ArticleBody-Video-108292649\">\n<div role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" id=\"Placeholder-ArticleBody-Video-108292649\" class=\"PlaceHolder-wrapper\" data-vilynx-id=\"7000409948\" data-test=\"VideoPlaceHolder\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-videoEmbed\" id=\"InlineVideo-0\" data-test=\"InlineVideo\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-inlineThumbnailContainer\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"InlineVideo-videoThumbnail\" src=\"https:\/\/image.cnbcfm.com\/api\/v1\/image\/108292650-17763593001776359295-45306365513-1080pnbcnews.jpg?v=1776359299&amp;w=750&amp;h=422&amp;vtcrop=y\" alt=\"How to build an investing playbook at record highs\"\/><span class=\"InlineVideo-videoButton\"\/><span\/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>More broadly, stock investors are essentially making a bet on the future earnings growth of a company \u2014 and the earnings backdrop has been &#8220;pretty solid,&#8221; Seydl said. <\/p>\n<p>Consumer spending appears to be stable, for example, economists said. And companies are getting a boost to their after-tax earnings from the GOP&#8217;s so-called &#8220;big beautiful bill,&#8221; which, among other things, made it easier to write off investments upfront and therefore reduce their tax liability, Zandi said. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2 id=\"going-forward\" class=\"ArticleBody-subtitle\"><a id=\"headline3\"\/>Going forward<\/h2>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Experts said there will be an economic hit from the Iran war, though.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Despite the recent news of a temporary ceasefire, some damage is already done, and the downside risks remain elevated,&#8221; Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, director of research at the International Monetary Fund, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/blogs\/articles\/2026\/04\/14\/war-darkens-global-economic-outlook-and-reshapes-policy-priorities\" target=\"_blank\">wrote Tuesday<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>A protracted conflict risks deep and global economic pain, he wrote. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Even if the conflict is short-lived \u2014 as the broad market expects \u2014 stocks are unlikely to march much higher until it&#8217;s clear the U.S. is on the other side of the war and its economic fallout, Zandi said. <\/p>\n<p>If investors are incorrect, and President Trump doesn&#8217;t back down or quickly extricate the U.S. from the war, the stock market may see a &#8220;full-blown correction&#8221; or worse, Zandi said. A stock market correction is a decline of at least 10% from recent highs. <\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Everyone thinks they know what the script is,&#8221; Zandi said. &#8220;Now they just need to follow the script. If they don&#8217;t, the market will have some real problems.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The uncertainty provides yet another example of why the average investor with a long time horizon should stick to their investment plan and ignore the noise, experts said. <\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Trying to time the market is very difficult if not impossible for the average investor,&#8221; Seydl said. &#8220;It&#8217;s better to take a long-term perspective and ride out bouts of volatility.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ArticleBody-googlePreferredSourceContainer\" data-module=\"GooglePreferredSource\" data-id=\"RegularArticle-GooglePreferredSource-5\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/preferences\/source?q=https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/04\/16\/stocks-record-highs-iran-war.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Traders work at the New York Stock Exchange on April 16, 2026. NYSE U.S. stocks climbed to record&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":43101,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-43100","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-investing","8":"cs-entry","9":"cs-video-wrap"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43100","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=43100"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43100\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/43101"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=43100"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=43100"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=43100"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}