{"id":43100,"date":"2026-04-16T19:45:17","date_gmt":"2026-04-16T19:45:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/?p=43100"},"modified":"2026-04-16T19:45:17","modified_gmt":"2026-04-16T19:45:17","slug":"stocks-have-touched-record-highs-despite-iran-war-heres-why","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/?p=43100","title":{"rendered":"Stocks have touched record highs despite Iran war. Here&#8217;s why"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> \n<\/p>\n<div id=\"RegularArticle-ArticleBody-5\" data-module=\"ArticleBody\" data-test=\"articleBody-2\" data-analytics=\"RegularArticle-articleBody-5-2\"><span class=\"HighlightShare-hidden\" style=\"top:0;left:0\"\/><\/p>\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imageEmbed\" id=\"ArticleBody-InlineImage-108292561\" data-test=\"InlineImage\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-wrapper\">\n<div>\n<p>Traders work at the New York Stock Exchange on April 16, 2026. <\/p>\n<p>NYSE<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>U.S. stocks <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/04\/14\/stock-market-today-live-updates.html\">climbed to record highs<\/a> on Wednesday against a backdrop of war, an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/04\/13\/trump-hormuz-blockade-oil-shock-china-iran-india-vessels-peace-talks.html\">oil supply shock<\/a> and economic forecasts <a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/blogs\/articles\/2026\/04\/14\/war-darkens-global-economic-outlook-and-reshapes-policy-priorities\" target=\"_blank\">warning<\/a> of stunted growth amid a protracted conflict. <\/p>\n<p>Many investors may be thinking: Why? <\/p>\n<p>Largely, it\u2019s because the stock market is a barometer of what investors think will happen in the future, rather than an assessment of the present day, according to economists and market analysts. <\/p>\n<p>Investors are essentially shrugging off the Middle East conflict as a blip that will be resolved relatively quickly, they said. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe stock market isn\u2019t trying to price what\u2019s happening today,\u201d said Joe Seydl, a senior markets economist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. \u201cThe stock market is always trying to price what the world is going to look like six to 12 months from now.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2 id=\"why-stocks-have-been-resilient\" class=\"ArticleBody-subtitle\"><a id=\"headline0\"\/>Why stocks have been \u2018resilient\u2019<\/h2>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>The <span class=\"QuoteInBody-quoteNameContainer\" data-test=\"QuoteInBody\" id=\"RegularArticle-QuoteInBody-4\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/.SPX\/\">S&P 500<\/a><span class=\"QuoteInBody-inlineButton\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistContainer\" id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\" data-analytics-id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\"><button class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistButton\" aria-label=\"Add To Watchlist\" data-testid=\"dropdown-btn\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-addWatchListFromTag\"\/><\/button><\/span><\/span><\/span>, a U.S. stock index, fell about 8% in the initial weeks of the Iran war, from the start of the conflict on Feb. 28 to a recent low on March 30. <\/p>\n<p>But stocks have <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/04\/14\/gen-z-investors-stock-market-volatility.html\">rebounded<\/a> since then, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/04\/14\/cnbc-daily-open-sp-stages-a-comeback-erasing-all-iran-war-losses.html\">erasing all losses<\/a> since the beginning of the war. The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high on Wednesday \u2014 about 11% higher than its nadir at the end of March. <\/p>\n<p>The index had extended the rally during Thursday trading as of late afternoon ET. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe market has remained very resilient in the face of the war and has rallied strongly on the prospect that it will be resolved,\u201d said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody\u2019s. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"Placeholder-ArticleBody-Video-108292022\">\n<div role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" id=\"Placeholder-ArticleBody-Video-108292022\" class=\"PlaceHolder-wrapper\" data-vilynx-id=\"7000409805\" data-test=\"VideoPlaceHolder\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-videoEmbed\" id=\"InlineVideo-0\" data-test=\"InlineVideo\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-inlineThumbnailContainer\"><span class=\"InlineVideo-videoButton\"\/><span\/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imageEmbed\" id=\"ArticleBody-InlineImage-108289219\" data-test=\"InlineImage\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-wrapper\">\n<div>\n<p>A ship waits to pass through the Strait of Hormuz following the two-week temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran, which is conditional on the opening of the strait, in Oman on April 8, 2026.<\/p>\n<p>Shady Alassar | Anadolu | Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>And while investors cheered the possibility of a diplomatic off-ramp to the conflict, the temporary ceasefire <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/video\/2026\/04\/09\/us-iran-ceasefire-proves-fragile-as-tehran-claims-violations.html\">has appeared tenuous<\/a>, with the U.S. and Iran each accusing the other of breaking the agreement. <\/p>\n<p>Nations haven\u2019t been able to reach a peace deal ahead of the ceasefire\u2019s end. Vice President JD Vance <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/04\/11\/us-iran-talks-set-to-begin-in-islamabad-after-delegations-arrive.html\">said \u200bU.S. officials \u2060left peace talks in Pakistan over the weekend<\/a> after the Iranian delegation refused to agree to American demands not to develop a nuclear weapon.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2 id=\"the-markets-have-memory\" class=\"ArticleBody-subtitle\"><a id=\"headline1\"\/>The markets \u2018have memory\u2019 <\/h2>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Ultimately, the stock market is signaling a collective belief that tensions will ratchet down, the war will end in the near term and oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will normalize, economists said. <\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s largely because investors have been conditioned to believe that President Donald Trump will back off if the economic pain becomes too intense, economists said \u2014 the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/04\/08\/trump-taco-many-on-wall-street-saw-this-stock-rally-coming.html\">so-called \u201cTACO\u201d trade<\/a>, shorthand for \u201cTrump always chickens out.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cInvestors strongly believe \u2014 and have been conditioned to believe \u2014 he\u2019s going to stand down, find a way to pivot, declare victory and move on,\u201d Zandi said. <\/p>\n<p>Trump has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/05\/28\/trump-tariffs-taco-trade-chickening-out.html\">pushed back on the notion of backing down<\/a>, framing his brinkmanship as a savvy negotiating tactic. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<div class=\"RelatedContent-relatedContent\" id=\"RegularArticle-RelatedContent-1\">\n<div class=\"RelatedContent-container\">\n<div class=\"RelatedContent-nonCollapsibleContent\">\n<h2 id=\"read-more-cnbc-personal-finance-coverage\" class=\"RelatedContent-header\">Read more CNBC personal finance coverage<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Economists pointed to a recent example of this dynamic: in April 2025 during so-called liberation day, when the Trump administration levied a host of tariffs on U.S. trading partners. <\/p>\n<p>Within days \u2014 after the stock market had cratered more than 12% \u2014 Trump <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/04\/03\/one-year-of-taco-how-the-trade-has-fared-since-liberation-day.html\">announced a 90-day pause on those tariffs<\/a>. Stocks then saw <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/04\/08\/stock-market-today-live-updates-.html\">one of their biggest daily rallies in history<\/a> following Trump\u2019s reversal. <\/p>\n<p>Investors remember that Trump often de-escalates geopolitical shocks \u2014 which is why they\u2019ve seized on positive headlines that hint at progress in peace talks, for example, Seydl said. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe markets have memory,\u201d Seydl said. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2 id=\"ai-stocks-and-the-tech-boom\" class=\"ArticleBody-subtitle\"><a id=\"headline2\"\/>AI stocks and the \u2018tech boom\u2019<\/h2>\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imageEmbed\" id=\"ArticleBody-InlineImage-108292448\" data-test=\"InlineImage\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-wrapper\">\n<div>\n<p>Traders celebrating at the New York Stock Exchange on April 15, 2026, as the S&P 500 (^GSPC) closed above the 7,000 level for the first time in history, setting a new record high.<\/p>\n<p>NYSE<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>There are other factors underpinning market resilience during wartime, economists said. <\/p>\n<p>One is the investors\u2019 enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and technology stocks, which account for almost half of the S&P 500\u2019s market capitalization, Zandi said. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cThose stocks run on their own dynamic independent of anything, including the war in Iran,\u201d Zandi said. \u201cI think we would have been down a lot more and it would have been harder for us to recover had it not been for the very, very optimistic perspectives on AI.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>We\u2019re in the middle of a \u201ctech boom\u201d \u2014 and investors are likely to remain optimistic until they think the tech cycle has run its course, Seydl said. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"Placeholder-ArticleBody-Video-108292649\">\n<div role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" id=\"Placeholder-ArticleBody-Video-108292649\" class=\"PlaceHolder-wrapper\" data-vilynx-id=\"7000409948\" data-test=\"VideoPlaceHolder\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-videoEmbed\" id=\"InlineVideo-0\" data-test=\"InlineVideo\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-inlineThumbnailContainer\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"InlineVideo-videoThumbnail\" src=\"https:\/\/image.cnbcfm.com\/api\/v1\/image\/108292650-17763593001776359295-45306365513-1080pnbcnews.jpg?v=1776359299&w=750&h=422&vtcrop=y\" alt=\"How to build an investing playbook at record highs\"\/><span class=\"InlineVideo-videoButton\"\/><span\/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>More broadly, stock investors are essentially making a bet on the future earnings growth of a company \u2014 and the earnings backdrop has been \u201cpretty solid,\u201d Seydl said. <\/p>\n<p>Consumer spending appears to be stable, for example, economists said. And companies are getting a boost to their after-tax earnings from the GOP\u2019s so-called \u201cbig beautiful bill,\u201d which, among other things, made it easier to write off investments upfront and therefore reduce their tax liability, Zandi said. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2 id=\"going-forward\" class=\"ArticleBody-subtitle\"><a id=\"headline3\"\/>Going forward<\/h2>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Experts said there will be an economic hit from the Iran war, though.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cDespite the recent news of a temporary ceasefire, some damage is already done, and the downside risks remain elevated,\u201d Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, director of research at the International Monetary Fund, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/blogs\/articles\/2026\/04\/14\/war-darkens-global-economic-outlook-and-reshapes-policy-priorities\" target=\"_blank\">wrote Tuesday<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>A protracted conflict risks deep and global economic pain, he wrote. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Even if the conflict is short-lived \u2014 as the broad market expects \u2014 stocks are unlikely to march much higher until it\u2019s clear the U.S. is on the other side of the war and its economic fallout, Zandi said. <\/p>\n<p>If investors are incorrect, and President Trump doesn\u2019t back down or quickly extricate the U.S. from the war, the stock market may see a \u201cfull-blown correction\u201d or worse, Zandi said. A stock market correction is a decline of at least 10% from recent highs. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cEveryone thinks they know what the script is,\u201d Zandi said. \u201cNow they just need to follow the script. If they don\u2019t, the market will have some real problems.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The uncertainty provides yet another example of why the average investor with a long time horizon should stick to their investment plan and ignore the noise, experts said. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cTrying to time the market is very difficult if not impossible for the average investor,\u201d Seydl said. \u201cIt\u2019s better to take a long-term perspective and ride out bouts of volatility.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ArticleBody-googlePreferredSourceContainer\" data-module=\"GooglePreferredSource\" data-id=\"RegularArticle-GooglePreferredSource-5\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/preferences\/source?q=https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/04\/16\/stocks-record-highs-iran-war.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Traders work at the New York Stock Exchange on April 16, 2026. NYSE U.S. stocks climbed to record&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":43101,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43100","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-investing","cs-entry","cs-video-wrap"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43100","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=43100"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43100\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/43101"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=43100"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=43100"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=43100"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}