{"id":42492,"date":"2026-03-26T12:38:08","date_gmt":"2026-03-26T12:38:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/?p=42492"},"modified":"2026-03-26T12:38:08","modified_gmt":"2026-03-26T12:38:08","slug":"high-gas-prices-from-iran-war-could-offset-trumps-bigger-tax-refunds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/?p=42492","title":{"rendered":"High gas prices from Iran war could offset Trump’s bigger tax refunds"},"content":{"rendered":"

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A man pumps gas at an Exxon station as the price of oil and gas has surged amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 5, 2026. <\/p>\n

Ken Cedeno | Reuters<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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As the Iran war<\/a> continues, and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz<\/a>, a key global oil shipping route, remains stalled, many Americans are seeing higher gas prices<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

That elevated cost threatens to offset larger tax refunds<\/a> this season, depending on how long the Iran conflict lasts, some experts say. <\/p>\n

Iran on Wednesday received President Donald Trump<\/a>\u2018s 15-point plan to end the war<\/a>, which initially lowered crude oil prices. But that drop reversed on Thursday<\/a> after the country rejected the U.S. ceasefire offer<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, American consumers are still paying higher prices at the pump. The price of gasoline<\/a> on Thursday was at a nationwide average of $3.98 a gallon, up by roughly 33% from one month ago, according to AAA<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Those higher gas prices could chip away at the windfall received by some taxpayers this spring. As of Mar. 13, the average refund amount<\/a> for individual filers was $3,623, about $350 more than a year earlier, according to the latest IRS data. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Read more CNBC personal finance coverage<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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While the average refund size could still shift, it\u2019s increasingly \u201cless likely we\u2019re going to see a major change\u201d before the April 15 tax deadline, William McBride, chief economist at the Tax Foundation, told CNBC. <\/p>\n

This season\u2019s bigger tax refunds come as both parties focus on Americans\u2019 affordability concerns<\/a>. Republicans hold slim majorities in the House and Senate ahead of the November midterm elections. <\/p>\n

Trump has said this will be the \u201clargest tax refund season of all time<\/a>\u201d based on the 2025 changes enacted via his \u201cbig beautiful bill.\u201d<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Higher gasoline prices could offset bigger tax refunds<\/h2>\n
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If the Strait of Hormuz were closed for three weeks and crude oil prices jumped to $110 per barrel in March, retail gasoline prices could peak at $4.36 per gallon in May, according to a March 18 analysis<\/a> from economists at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.<\/p>\n

Under that scenario, higher gasoline prices could be \u201cwiping out most or all of the larger tax refunds on average,\u201d the authors wrote. <\/p>\n

The analysis, which included Goldman Sachs<\/a>