\n
<\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tBitcoin prices continue to weaken and are approaching pain levels for long-term holders, according to analysts.\u00a0\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
As Bitcoin markets fail to improve, analysts have been looking into the behavior of the different investor cohorts in the market.<\/p>\n
\n\u201cOne of the cornerstone cohorts in this framework is long-term holders (LTH), known to be less sensitive to short-term price fluctuations,\u201d said CryptoQuant analyst \u2018Darkfost\u2019 on Tuesday.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
Currently, long-term holders are sitting on an average profit of roughly 74%, but this profit margin continues to decline as the price moves closer to the LTH cost basis, currently estimated at around $38,900, they said.<\/p>\n
Bear Market Breaks Below Cost Basis<\/h2>\n
The analyst looked at historical cycles, noting that each bear market has been characterized by price breaking below this cost basis, \u201ctriggering a final capitulation phase marked by realized losses of around 20%.\u201d<\/p>\n
Only when this happens, and markets begin to recover and enter a bull phase, the analyst noted.<\/p>\n
\nBTC Drifting Toward the LTH Pain Point<\/p>\n
\u201cLooking at historical precedent, each bear market has been characterized by price breaking below this cost basis, triggering a final capitulation phase marked by realized losses of ~20%.\u201d \u2013 By @Darkfost_Coc<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/c50CHSzEBU<\/a><\/p>\n
\u2014 CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 24, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
Glassnode reported on Tuesday that the 90-day moving average of the Realized Profit\/Loss Ratio has now fallen<\/a> below 1, \u201cconfirming a full transition into an excess loss-realization regime.\u201d\u00a0The analysis echoes that of Darkfost: historically, these bearish conditions persist for at least 6 months before liquidity returns to markets.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, analyst James Check said<\/a> that Bitcoin has almost printed five consecutive red monthly candles, \u201cfollowing the largest volatility spike of the cycle.\u201d<\/p>\n
You may also like:<\/h3>\n
He also observed that 1-week realised volatility spiked above 150%, \u201ca level typically seen around capitulation events,\u201d weekly RSI is at one of the \u201cmost oversold readings in Bitcoin\u2019s history,\u201d and around $70 billion of BTC has migrated to new hands in the $60,000 to $70,000 range this year.<\/p>\n
Bitcoin supply in loss just hit 10 million coins, the fourth-highest reading ever, observed<\/a> analyst James Van Straten, who added that the circulating supply hits 20 million BTC next week, and 50% is in loss.<\/p>\n
\n\u201cHistory suggests that\u2019s enough capital destruction for a bear market bottom,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
Bitcoin Sees Small Rebound<\/h2>\n
There was a minor rebound during early trading in Asia on Wednesday morning, with BTC adding $2,000 to reclaim $66,000. However, the move does not appear to be natural, and bearish sentiment remains dominant.<\/p>\n
Moreover, the move has formed another lower high with $60,000 still serving as support for lower lows.<\/p>\n
\nSPECIAL OFFER (Exclusive)<\/span><\/center>
\nBinance Free $600 (CryptoPotato Exclusive): Use this link<\/a> to register a new account and receive $600 exclusive welcome offer on Binance<\/b> (full details<\/a>).<\/p>\nLIMITED OFFER for CryptoPotato readers at Bybit: Use this link<\/a> to register and open a $500 FREE position on any coin!<\/b><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
<\/p><\/div>\n