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Welcome to the “boomcession.”<\/a><\/p>\n The term is a portmanteau of the words “boom” and “recession.” It highlights how the average American doesn’t feel like they’re reaping the benefits of an economy<\/a> that is \u2014 on paper \u2014 humming along, according to creator Matt Stoller<\/a>.<\/p>\n Economic output and the stock market are surging, consumers are spending big and the post-pandemic recession that many expected never materialized. But many feel terrible about their finances, with debt at all-time highs, and the majority of Americans incorrectly believe the country is in an economic slowdown.<\/p>\n “Traditionally, the economy is doing really well,” said Stoller, an antimonopoly advocate and research director at the American Economic Liberties Project, a nonpartisan thinktank. “But ordinary people are saying they’re not.”<\/p>\n<\/div>\n It’s thematically similar to the “vibecession,”<\/a> a term popularized in 2022 to explain the disconnect between solid economic data and negative consumer sentiment readings exiting the pandemic. It can also draw comparisons to the “K-shaped economy,”<\/a> a phrase illustrating how Americans can feel vastly different depending on their income bracket.<\/p>\n Stoller’s “boomcession” framework aims to bring awareness beyond opinion to the material financial hardships faced by those not in America’s uppermost echelons, he said. Once that’s contextualized, it’s easier to understand why many Americans believe the national economic engine they help power isn’t propelling them forward, Stoller said.<\/p>\n On its surface, Stoller said the “boomcession” theory can help explain why data in recent years shows that U.S. GDP growth hasn’t correlated with better consumer sentiment readings. That marks a significant break from the typical trend seen over the past six decades.<\/p>\n “I’ve never seen anything like it,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at consulting firm KPMG. “I’ve been doing this for 40 years. And that’s a long time to never see anything like this.”<\/p>\n<\/div>\n Helping drive that disconnect, Stoller and economists say, is the fact that inflation<\/a> isn’t one size fits all. Consumers face different rates of price growth based on factors like their income class or geographical location, data shows.<\/p>\n Grocery and shelter inflation rose the most of any essential tracked by Morgan Stanley between 2020 and 2025. Those two categories made up a disproportionately high share of lower-income consumers’ spending in 2024, the bank found.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n Lower earners historically see higher rates of inflation than their better-off counterparts, said Morgan Stanley economist Heather Berger. The inflationary gap widens when overall price growth is above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2% \u2014 as has been largely the case for the past several years, according to the bank.<\/p>\n This can’t be written off as a post-pandemic idiosyncrasy. The Atlanta Fed reported this year that food prices rose around 9% more<\/a> in poorer areas than richer ones between the second quarter of 2006 and the third quarter of 2020. More grocers in underserved communities can increase competition and drive down prices, Stoller said, in turn helping lessen the inflation disparity.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n “If you look at monopolization as a systemic feature of the American economy and price discrimination as a systemic feature of the American economy, then it’s not that hard to jump from there,” Stoller said. “The people who are happy are getting different prices than the people who are sad.”<\/p>\n President Donald Trump<\/a> has pushed initiatives aimed at lowering prices for homes<\/a> and pharmaceuticals<\/a> this year. Trump claimed last month that there was “virtually no”<\/a> inflation in the U.S. despite the latest data showing rates higher than the 2% annual level considered healthy by monetary policymakers.<\/p>\n Economists and investors are watching to see how affordability initiatives<\/a> ramp up ahead of November’s midterm elections.<\/p>\n In the meantime, households feel less insulated than they did when pandemic stimulus programs rolled out in the early 2020s, said Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at financial education platform NerdWallet. Credit card debt hit a record high<\/a> of $1.28 trillion in the fourth quarter of last year, according to data from the New York Fed released last week.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n While high prices have been a perennial issue since the pandemic’s inflationary shock, consumers without financial safety nets have more recently focused their concern on the job market<\/a>.<\/p>\n Economists have described the current labor backdrop as a “jobless boom”<\/a> and “hiring recession.”<\/a> Fed Chair Jerome Powell has dubbed it a “low hire, low fire”<\/a> environment.<\/p>\n December job openings fell to their lowest level since 2020<\/a> despite the stock market rallying further, data shows. Because higher-income cohorts are more likely to own stocks, economists say that continued gains in these holdings can buoy economic confidence and pad consumer spending. Meanwhile, anxiety washes over the rest of the country as the labor market tightens.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n “If you have the assets that are enjoying really high values, then you’re feeling supported,” said Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers. “But strong stock markets don’t mean a lick to you if you don’t own any stocks.”<\/p>\n Economic output by worker per hour broke out of its pandemic funk to new all-time highs last year, federal statistics show. But that may be bad news for employees: The boost can be taken as a sign that artificial intelligence<\/a> is turbocharging productivity, which could encourage companies to whittle down headcounts.<\/p>\nWhat’s in a name?<\/h2>\n
Inflation, not created equal<\/h2>\n
A ‘hiring recession’<\/h2>\n