{"id":41162,"date":"2026-02-13T22:02:24","date_gmt":"2026-02-13T22:02:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/?p=41162"},"modified":"2026-02-13T22:02:24","modified_gmt":"2026-02-13T22:02:24","slug":"early-estimates-point-to-a-lower-amount","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/?p=41162","title":{"rendered":"Early estimates point to a lower amount"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> \n<\/p>\n<div id=\"RegularArticle-ArticleBody-5\" data-module=\"ArticleBody\" data-test=\"articleBody-2\" data-analytics=\"RegularArticle-articleBody-5-2\"><span class=\"HighlightShare-hidden\" style=\"top:0;left:0\"\/><\/p>\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imageEmbed\" id=\"ArticleBody-InlineImage-108265853\" data-test=\"InlineImage\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-wrapper\">\n<div>\n<p>Carl Smith | Fstop | Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/01\/23\/will-social-security-run-out-is-the-wrong-question-economist-says.html\">Social Security<\/a> benefits are typically adjusted every year to keep up with rising prices. <\/p>\n<p>Social Security beneficiaries saw record-high COLAs in 2022 and 2023, when the annual increases climbed to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssa.gov\/cola\" target=\"_blank\">5.9% and 8.7%<\/a>, respectively. Yet as the pace of inflation subsided, the size of the annual COLA increase has also <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/10\/23\/social-security-cola-for-2026-some-retirees-wish-it-would-be-more.html\">come down<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>The 2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/10\/24\/social-security-cola-2026-benefits-increase.html\">cost-of-living adjustment<\/a> was 2.8%. That added <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/10\/24\/social-security-cola-2026-benefits-increase.html\">about $56 per month<\/a> on average for retirees, and for some beneficiaries, higher Medicare premiums <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/01\/09\/january-social-security-checks-cola-increase.html\">offset that increase<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Now, new <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/02\/13\/heres-the-inflation-breakdown-for-january-2026-in-one-chart.html\">government inflation data<\/a> for January suggests the cost-of-living adjustment for 2027 may be even lower, if the pace of inflation stays the same in the coming months.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<div class=\"RelatedContent-relatedContent\" id=\"RegularArticle-RelatedContent-1\">\n<div class=\"RelatedContent-container\">\n<div class=\"RelatedContent-nonCollapsibleContent\">\n<h2 id=\"read-more-cnbc-personal-finance-coverage\" class=\"RelatedContent-header\">Read more CNBC personal finance coverage<\/h2>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/02\/13\/social-security-cola-2027-early-estimates.html\">Early estimates point to lower Social Security COLA for 2027<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/02\/13\/social-security-fairness-act-lump-sum-payment-timeline.html\">Senators call for longer Social Security Fairness Act lump-sum payment timeline<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/02\/13\/heres-the-inflation-breakdown-for-january-2026-in-one-chart.html\">Here\u2019s the inflation breakdown for January 2026 \u2014 in one chart<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/02\/13\/average-tax-refund.html\">Average tax refund is up 22%, Bessent says \u2014 what filers can expect this season<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/02\/13\/k-shaped-economy-middle-class-spending.html\">K-shaped economy looks like \u2018jaws of a crocodile,\u2019 economist says: Here\u2019s why<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/02\/12\/epa-endangerment-finding-repeal.html\">How EPA \u2018endangerment finding\u2019 repeal could impact your wallet<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/02\/12\/medical-debt-bankruptcy.html\">Medical emergencies can lead to debt and bankruptcy \u2014 even for insured Americans<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/02\/12\/tax-return-audit-key-tax-forms.html\">Bigger tax refunds may be coming \u2014 but missing key forms could risk an audit<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/02\/11\/social-security-fairness-act-taxes.html\">How Social Security Fairness Act payments may affect beneficiaries\u2019 taxes<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/02\/10\/new-york-fed-credit-card-debt-tops-1point28-trillion.html\">Credit card debt tops $1.28 trillion, consistent with \u2018K-shaped\u2019 economy: NY Fed<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/02\/10\/affordability-led-to-a-chasm-between-stock-prices-consumer-optimism.html\">How affordability led to a chasm between stock prices, consumer optimism<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/02\/09\/cfpb-student-loan-complaints.html\">Student loan complaints at record high, CFPB finds, but agency omits details<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/02\/09\/trump-accounts-sign-up-form.html\">Following Super Bowl ad, Trump accounts launch a new sign-up option<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/02\/09\/pslf-public-service-loan-forgiveness-buyback-backlog.html\">Some student loan borrowers wait over a year for public servant debt forgiveness<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/02\/08\/trump-big-beautiful-bill-college-education.html\">Trump\u2019s \u2018big beautiful bill\u2019 may spur the rise of \u2018un-college,\u2019 experts say<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/02\/07\/401k-mullet-quarter-zip-economy.html\">First the quarter zip, now a \u2018401(k) mullet\u2019 \u2014 what trends say about the economy<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/10\/01\/best-financial-advisors.html\">CNBC\u2019s Financial Advisor 100: Best financial advisors, top firms ranked<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>The 2026 COLA affects around 75 million beneficiaries, according to the Social Security Administration.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2 id=\"estimates-range-from-1-2-to-3-1\" class=\"ArticleBody-subtitle\"><a id=\"headline0\"\/>Estimates range from 1.2% to 3.1%<\/h2>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment may be just 1.2% in 2027, estimates Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare analyst. If that increase were to go into effect, it would be the lowest COLA since a 0.3% increase to benefits in 2017.<\/p>\n<p>Separately, the Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan senior group, now <a href=\"https:\/\/seniorsleague.org\/cola-predicted-at-just-2-8-percent-while-millions-of-seniors-forgo-medical-services-due-to-cost\" target=\"_blank\">projects a 2.8%<\/a> Social Security COLA for 2027, consistent with the benefit boost beneficiaries saw for this year. <\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the Congressional Budget Office has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbo.gov\/system\/files\/2026-02\/51308-2026-02-socialsecurity.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">forecast<\/a> a 3.1% Social Security COLA for next year, followed by 2.5% the following year, as part of its estimates on the program\u2019s future costs.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2 id=\"low-cola-would-exacerbate-financial-stress\" class=\"ArticleBody-subtitle\"><a id=\"headline1\"\/>Low COLA would \u2018exacerbate\u2019 financial stress<\/h2>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>If the COLA landed at 2.8%, \u201cthis paltry figure would only exacerbate seniors\u2019 financial stress,\u201d the Senior Citizens League states. The group\u2019s polling has found more than half of seniors \u2014 almost 58% \u2014 have skipped at least one health care product or service in the past 12 months to cut costs.<\/p>\n<p>A separate September <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aarp.org\/pri\/topics\/work-finances-retirement\/social-security\/social-security-cola-2026\" target=\"_blank\">AARP survey<\/a> found that a 3% COLA is \u201cinsufficient.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The organization asked about 1,000 adults ages 50 and older what they thought of a then-estimated 3% increase and found 77% of respondents said that was not enough to keep up with rising prices. Most respondents \u2014 72% \u2014 said the ideal benefit boost would be 5% or higher.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"Placeholder-ArticleBody-Video-108186648\">\n<div role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" id=\"Placeholder-ArticleBody-Video-108186648\" class=\"PlaceHolder-wrapper\" data-vilynx-id=\"7000385822\" data-test=\"VideoPlaceHolder\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-videoEmbed\" id=\"InlineVideo-0\" data-test=\"InlineVideo\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-inlineThumbnailContainer\"><span class=\"InlineVideo-videoButton\"\/><span\/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>To be sure, the current COLA projections are preliminary and subject to change.<\/p>\n<p>The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment is calculated each year using third-quarter data for the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W. Third-quarter CPI-W data for the current year is compared to the third quarter of the previous year. The percentage increase from one year to the next, if there is one, determines the COLA. <\/p>\n<p>New CPI data for January shows the CPI-W <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/cpi.nr0.htm\" target=\"_blank\">increased 2.2%<\/a> over the previous 12 months. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/02\/13\/social-security-cola-2027-early-estimates.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Carl Smith | Fstop | Getty Images Social Security benefits are typically adjusted every year to keep up&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":41163,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41162","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-investing","cs-entry","cs-video-wrap"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41162","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=41162"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41162\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/41163"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=41162"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=41162"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=41162"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}