{"id":40685,"date":"2026-01-30T16:00:14","date_gmt":"2026-01-30T16:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/?p=40685"},"modified":"2026-01-30T16:00:14","modified_gmt":"2026-01-30T16:00:14","slug":"tax-refunds-may-be-1000-higher-on-average-white-house-says-what-to-expect","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/?p=40685","title":{"rendered":"Tax refunds may be $1,000 higher on average, White House says. What to expect"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Many Americans could see bigger tax refunds<\/a> during the 2026 filing season<\/a> based on changes from <\/a>President Donald Trump<\/a>‘s “big beautiful bill.” But just how much is a matter of debate.<\/p>\n

Enacted in July, Trump’s legislation added several tax breaks<\/a> for 2025 and the IRS did not adjust paycheck withholdings<\/a>. As a result, many workers overpaid taxes<\/a> and will be refunded when filing 2025 returns, experts say.<\/p>\n

In 2026, average tax refunds could increase “by $1,000 or more,” the White House said in a release<\/a> this week. The release cited several media reports that reference early October research from Piper Sandler. That note said Trump’s “retroactive tax cuts could average about $1,000 per return though it will be substantially more for some filers.” <\/p>\n

The White House release also included a graphic with January data<\/a> from the Tax Foundation, a nonprofit think tank, showing estimated average refunds could be $3,800, up $748 from $3,052<\/a> for tax year 2024. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Read more CNBC personal finance coverage<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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In 2026, $200 billion more will go out for tax refunds, Frank Bisignano, Social Security Administration Commissioner and IRS CEO, told CNBC’s “The Exchange”<\/a> on Wednesday. <\/p>\n

The Piper Sandler research from early October estimated 2026 refunds could increase by about $91 billion from Trump’s 2025 tax cuts. By comparison, the Tax Foundation’s January analysis <\/a>said 2026 refunds could rise by up to $100 billion, based on private-sector data.<\/p>\n

The estimates come as Republicans continue to promote Trump’s 2025 legislation \u2014 now called the “Working Families Tax Cuts”<\/a> \u2014 and promises that 2026 will be the “largest tax refund season of all time<\/a>.” <\/p>\n

Trump has recently floated new economic policy<\/a> as many Americans struggle with the rising costs<\/a> of groceries, utilities and other living expenses. Democrats have criticized Trump on affordability<\/a> as Republicans fight to defend a razor-thin House majority during a midterm election year.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

How much higher tax refunds could be in 2026<\/h2>\n
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The Tax Foundation analysis found the average tax refund in 2026 could be $300 to $1,000 higher compared to a typical year, based on past IRS data<\/a> and private sector estimates<\/a>, according to Garrett Watson, director of policy analysis at the Tax Foundation.<\/p>\n

“But there’s a really important caveat here,” Watson told CNBC. “This is very much an average. It does conceal a lot of variation between taxpayers.”\u00a0<\/p>\n

For example, filers with a lot of tips<\/a> or overtime income, or certain higher earners<\/a>, are likely to see “much greater refunds” compared to lower- to middle-class W-2 workers who receive only a “slight bump” from the bigger standard deduction, he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

For 2025, the standard deduction<\/a> rose to $15,750 for single filers or $31,500 for married couples filing jointly, up from $15,000 and $30,000, respectively. <\/p>\n

By comparison, certain workers can deduct up to $25,000 in tip income or $12,500 in overtime pay in 2025. <\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the state and local tax deduction<\/a>, or SALT, limit increased to $40,000 for 2025, up from $10,000. The SALT deduction includes state and local income taxes and property taxes. Most filers won’t be eligible because you must itemize deductions to benefit. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Rockaa | E+ | Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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A separate report released this week<\/a> from the American Enterprise Institute projected that about 60% of filers will see an average tax cut of nearly $1,200 for 2025 returns.\u00a0This figure refers to reduced taxes for 2025, not the size of filers’ refunds. <\/p>\n

The percentage of filers who benefit and the average tax cut rise with income, with middle- and high-income filers “likely to receive larger tax cuts” based on the structure of the provisions, authors Kyle Pomerleau and Huaqun Li wrote.<\/p>\n

But how tax cuts translate into refunds ultimately “depend significantly on a taxpayer’s individual characteristics,” and whether they adjusted their paycheck withholdings after Trump’s law went into effect, they wrote.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
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