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People shop at a grocery store in Brooklyn on Dec. 12, 2025 in New York City.<\/p>\n
Spencer Platt | Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Wall Street is awaiting Thursday\u2019s release of the November consumer price index report, as it will mark the first inflation reading investors will get since the end of the record-setting U.S. government shutdown last month.<\/p>\n
According to economists surveyed by Dow Jones, the report \u2013 which tracks the average change in prices people pay for a range of goods and services \u2013 is expected to show a 12-month inflation rate of 3.1%. When excluding food and energy, core CPI is forecast to post an annual rate of 3.0%.<\/p>\n
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has said<\/a> the release \u201cwill not include 1-month percent changes for November 2025 where the October 2025 data are missing,\u201d as the agency canceled the October inflation report<\/a> in late November, weeks before the Federal Reserve\u2019s final meeting of the year. September\u2019s CPI data<\/a> \u2013 the most recent CPI report to be published and only piece of economic data released during the shutdown \u2013 showed an annual reading of 3.0% for the headline and core measures.<\/p>\n \u201cThe psychological distinction between a two handle and a three handle is going to be paramount,\u201d Jos\u00e9 Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, said in an interview with CNBC.<\/p>\n While the consensus estimate shows the annual rate hitting the 3% threshold for the month, the senior economist is anticipating the headline and core readings to be lower than expected at 2.9% each, though he thinks that the range of possible outcomes for headline could be between that figure and 3.1%.<\/p>\n If the report were to show a 2.9% reading, it could offer some positive momentum in stocks heading into 2026. In fact, Torres believes that such a number would clear the path for a so-called Santa Claus rally. He also thinks it would have an impact on the interest rate outlook for next year \u2013 a period during which the Fed projects one rate cut<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cIt really would strengthen monetary policy easing expectations in the last inflation report \u2013 CPI report \u2013 of 2025 if we could keep inflation in the twos rather than it increasing up to the threes, because that\u2019ll allow more interest rate cuts next year,\u201d Torres added.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n While the release could help pave the way for a year-end rally, there would need to be other catalysts in store for that to happen, because others like Victoria Fernandez of Crossmark Global Investments don\u2019t see a 0.1 percentage point move in either direction as leading to some \u201chuge\u201d market reaction. She also thinks that Fed policymakers would still be in wait-and-see mode<\/a> even with a 2.9% reading.<\/p>\n \u201cI think it\u2019s going to be varied. This is not going to be a clean CPI number,\u201d the firm\u2019s chief market strategist said, citing the absence of month-over-month data as one factor and when exactly the BLS was able to begin collecting the November data as another.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n U.S. President Donald Trump signs the funding bill to end the U.S. government shutdown, at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., Nov. 12, 2025. <\/p>\n Kevin Lamarque | Reuters<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n President Donald Trump<\/a> officially signed a funding bill<\/a> into law on Nov. 12, reopening the government after 43 days of stoppage \u2013 the longest duration in U.S. history. That prompted the BLS to push back November\u2019s CPI report from its previously scheduled release date of Dec. 10.<\/p>\n \u201cBy the time the government actually opened and they started collecting data, we were almost halfway through the month of November, so you\u2019re only getting the last half of the month,\u201d Fernandez said. \u201cYou have to start wondering, \u2018Is there some kind of a bias in terms of what prices do and how things work in the latter half of the month versus the beginning of a month?'\u201d<\/p>\n Ultimately, the strategist thinks the overall theme will be that inflation is \u201cremaining high\u201d and that it\u2019s not making its way back towards 2% like some anticipate.<\/p>\n \u201cWe have a tremendous amount of uncertainty as to where we\u2019re going from here, because we have conflicting stories,\u201d Fernandez said. \u201cWe can have weak trends in unemployment, weak household income, consumer spending weak, and then we can have the expectation of 14% earnings growth next year and strong revenues. All the puzzle pieces don\u2019t quite fit together.\u201d<\/p>\nNot a \u2018clean\u2019 report<\/h2>\n