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Bitcoin (BTC) is heading into this week\u2019s Federal Reserve meeting with traders once again wondering if a rate cut will arrive and whether the price could repeat the sharp pullbacks seen after the previous two cuts on September 17 and October 29.<\/p>\n
The outcome could shape market direction into year-end, with analysts watching leverage and stablecoin flows rather than the headline decision itself.<\/p>\n
According to XWIN Research Japan, both the September and October rate-cut announcements exhibited a similar pattern: prices rose in the days leading up to the announcements, briefly increased after the news, and then declined for weeks. That setup, the group explained<\/a>, fits a classic \u201cbuy the rumor, sell the news\u201d reaction.<\/p>\n XWIN also added two on-chain signals to watch: stablecoin exchange reserves, which indicate whether new capital is accumulating to buy dips, and funding rates, which reflect the degree of crowding in leveraged positions.<\/p>\n \u201cThe December FOMC could follow the familiar pattern of \u2018up first, down later,\u2019\u201d the market watchers wrote. \u201cBut the decisive factors will be stablecoin inflows and the market\u2019s leverage structure.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n In the firm\u2019s experts’ opinion, high long-side funding could leave Bitcoin vulnerable to renewed liquidations. Traders got a taste of this over the weekend, with thin market liquidity triggering violent swings and wiping out<\/a> more than $500 million in leveraged positions.<\/p>\n Furthermore, they pointed out that the current demand is coming<\/a> almost entirely from the United States, with Europe and Asia now net sellers, which is a structure that supports short-term price moves, but leaves the market leaning heavily on a single region.<\/p>\n Ahead of the meeting, Bitcoin is trading at around $91,500, up about 2% in the last 24 hours but still down nearly 11% over the past month, according to data from CoinGecko.<\/p>\n Beyond the immediate Fed decision, a complex set of fundamental factors is at play. For instance, CryptoQuant analyst GugaOnChain recently described<\/a> Bitcoin as wrestling with the psychologically key $100,000 level.<\/p>\n According to them, the asset\u2019s Growth Rate Difference dipped into negative territory, meaning its market cap has been falling faster than its realized value. That reading tends to appear near a weakening market structure and could help explain the hesitation below six-figure territory.<\/p>\n At the same time, another assessment by XWIN shows<\/a> that the cryptocurrency\u2019s long-term ownership base is strengthening, with a notable reduction in profit-taking by long-term holders.<\/p>\n Additionally, institutional adoption continues its quiet march, with global treasury holdings of Bitcoin by nations, companies, and funds crossing the 4 million BTC threshold, signaling a gradual shift from a speculative asset to a strategic reserve.<\/p>\n But for this week, the focus will mostly be on one thing: how Bitcoin behaves after the FOMC speaks, with Japanese analyst Fumihiro Arasawa advising<\/a> traders to take a \u201cdefensive stance\u201d around the meeting because past cuts have brought heavy volatility despite sounding positive at first glance.<\/p>\n XWIN shared similar sentiments, cautioning that rather than betting on the outcome, the most practical strategy would be for market participants to focus on \u201creducing exposure and preparing risk-controlled scenarios.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The post FOMC Preview: Is Bitcoin’s Recovery in Jeopardy?<\/a> appeared first on CryptoPotato<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n
Longer-Term Forces Still Point to Accumulation<\/h2>\n
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