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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tRastani\u2019s study of past Bitcoin death crosses shows most aligned with major bottoms, reinforcing his bullish view.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
Veteran analyst Alessio Rastani is making a bold call, saying that Bitcoin (BTC) is setting up for a powerful upward move.\u00a0He gave the optimistic outlook with the flagship cryptocurrency trading at around $91,000, up more than 6% in the last seven days, but almost 28% away from its October all-time high (ATH) above $126,000.<\/p>\n
The trader\u2019s conviction is rooted in a combination of a classic technical signal and overwhelming negative sentiment, which he believes are creating the perfect conditions for a rebound.<\/p>\n
Speaking in a recent interview, Rastani said<\/a> many traders are \u201cjumping the gun\u201d by calling a bear market based only on timing models and the sharp pullback from the October ATH. In his view, the price structure and sentiment tell a different story.<\/p>\n The market watcher examined every Bitcoin death cross, which is where the 50-day simple moving average falls below the 200-day, going back to 2011. He found that about 75% of these signals came close to major bottoms, with BTC typically posting positive returns over the following one to three months.<\/p>\n He added that the pattern is even more reliable when the death cross appears shortly after an all-time high, as happened with the November 15 signal.\u00a0At the same time, sentiment has swung to what he described as Bitcoin being \u201cextremely hated.\u201d Indeed, the Fear & Greed Index has sat<\/a> in extreme fear territory for weeks, while social media comment sections have been filled with predictions of a drop to as low as $10,000.<\/p>\n For Rastani, that kind of despair often marks the later stages of a correction, as weaker hands capitulate after buying near the top.\u00a0His base case is a 15\u201320% rebound over the next several weeks, with the potential for new highs in early 2026 rather than before year-end.<\/p>\n According to him, the current drop is a correction within a wider uptrend, especially given that Bitcoin is holding long-term support levels and weekly RSI has been deeply oversold.<\/p>\n Other analysts have been more cautious about declaring<\/a> a bottom, especially with key on-chain metrics like the 30-day and 365-day MVRV ratios being negative, showing many traders are still underwater.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, whales holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have been cutting exposure for six straight weeks, raising doubts about a sustained return to six-figure prices.<\/p>\n Derivatives data also paints a fragile picture, with Alphractal founder Joao Wedson recently calling<\/a> Bitcoin \u201cone of the most leveraged assets in history,\u201d pointing to perpetual futures open interest peaking in October at nearly five times the level seen at the 2021 high.<\/p>\n Binance and Bybit now dominate this leverage-heavy landscape, with longs accounting for around 72% of positions by value.<\/p>\nYou may also like:<\/h3>\n
Mixed On-chain Signals Temper Bitcoin Bull Case<\/h2>\n
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