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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tRising prices to $126K versus negative CVD suggest the rally was driven by leveraged derivatives, not spot demand.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
Bitcoin (BTC) is confronting a significant wave of selling pressure, with a key derivatives metric on the Binance exchange approaching a two-year low.<\/p>\n
According to analysts, this development points to a market environment dominated by sellers, raising concerns about the potential for continued price instability and a drawn-out period of adjustment.<\/p>\n
New data from Arab Chain posted earlier today shows<\/a> Binance\u2019s CVD hovering near \u2013$94.8 billion, one of its weakest levels since 2023.\u00a0The indicator tracks the difference between buy and sell volume, and such a steep negative value means that sell orders have consistently outweighed buys over an extended period.<\/p>\n Arab Chain analysts pointed out that this imbalance has been in place since early 2024, even as Bitcoin climbed to near-record levels around $125,000 before sliding toward $80,800.\u00a0They said that the divergence between rising prices and weakening CVD is a signal that much of the rally was built on leveraged derivatives rather than solid spot demand.<\/p>\n This view fits neatly with on-chain behavior from long-term holders (LTHs) captured<\/a> by Axel Adler Jr. He highlighted that LTH supply has dropped from a peak of 15.75 million BTC to 13.6 million BTC, the lowest level since the bull cycle began.<\/p>\n Between November 11 and 25, this group offloaded more than 803,000 BTC, averaging over 53,000 BTC sold per day, which is classic distribution at elevated prices.\u00a0Their 30-day Net Position Change has turned as negative as previous major profit-taking waves in March and October 2024, both of which came before sharp pullbacks.<\/p>\n At the same time, Merlijn The Trader noted today that Bitcoin\u2019s MVRV Z-Score has dropped<\/a> below a key support level that held every major rally of this cycle, warning that the \u201cfloor is gone\u201d and recalling a prior 42% slide after a similar breakdown.<\/p>\n At the market, Bitcoin has been flat in the last 24 hours, and is currently trading at around $87,500 per CoinGecko. However, it is down about 4% over the previous seven days and 15% in the past two weeks.<\/p>\n The picture is the same across even longer timeframes, with the OG crypto shedding nearly 25% of its value in the past month, and is over 7% lower than where it was around the same time last year.<\/p>\n That drawdown puts BTC nearly 25% lower than its October 6 all-time high, when it went past $126,000, and, as observed by Adler, sits against a broader backdrop of sideways trading and heavy liquidations.<\/p>\n Additionally, recent CryptoQuant analysis showed that Bitcoin\u2019s Sharpe Ratio has dropped back toward zero, a zone previously seen<\/a> in 2019, 2020, and 2022 before new multi-month trends formed.<\/p>\n For risk-aware investors, that backdrop offers a more attractive long-term entry window, even as experts warned<\/a> that whales are still trimming holdings and that further wicks into the $70,000\u2013$80,000 range remain possible.<\/p>\nYou may also like:<\/h3>\n
Price Stagnation<\/h2>\n
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