{"id":37857,"date":"2025-11-08T13:49:11","date_gmt":"2025-11-08T13:49:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/?p=37857"},"modified":"2025-11-08T13:49:11","modified_gmt":"2025-11-08T13:49:11","slug":"aca-subsidy-cliff-may-trigger-higher-health-insurance-premiums","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/?p=37857","title":{"rendered":"ACA subsidy cliff may trigger higher health insurance premiums"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> \n<\/p>\n<div id=\"RegularArticle-ArticleBody-5\" data-module=\"ArticleBody\" data-test=\"articleBody-2\" data-analytics=\"RegularArticle-articleBody-5-2\"><span class=\"HighlightShare-hidden\" style=\"top:0;left:0\"\/><\/p>\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imageEmbed\" id=\"ArticleBody-InlineImage-108206721\" data-test=\"InlineImage\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-wrapper\">\n<div>\n<p>Members of the National Guard patrol near the U.S. Capitol on Oct. 1, 2025 in Washington, DC.<\/p>\n<p>Al Drago | Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Millions of Americans are bracing for a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/10\/31\/aca-open-enrollment-starts-enhanced-subsidies.html\">sharp increase<\/a> in their health insurance premiums next year as expiring enhanced subsidies trigger a \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/07\/22\/aca-health-insurance-trump-taxes.html\">cliff<\/a>\u201d on aid \u2014 and they <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/10\/17\/aca-enhanced-subsidy-lapse-government-shutdown.html\">are worried<\/a> about the financial stress tied to those extra costs.<\/p>\n<p>Ashley Thompson of Austin, Texas, said she and her husband are weighing whether to drop their health coverage next year and insure only their two children to make the financials work.<\/p>\n<p>Premiums for the family\u2019s current health plan on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.healthcare.gov\/\" target=\"_blank\">Affordable Care Act marketplace<\/a> could triple, to about $3,553 a month in 2026 from $1,200 this year, without the enhanced federal subsidies set to expire at year\u2019s end, based on marketplace estimates.<\/p>\n<p>That expense, almost $43,000 a year, would account for roughly a third or more of their household income \u2014 and that\u2019s before even using the insurance, said Thompson, 49, who is a ceramic artist and physical trainer.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cQuite frankly, it\u2019s terrifying,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2 id=\"health-premiums-poised-to-double-or-more\" class=\"ArticleBody-subtitle\"><a id=\"headline0\"\/>Health premiums poised to double \u2014 or more<\/h2>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Thompson and her family are among the 22 million Americans who receive enhanced subsidies that make health premiums cheaper. Overall, that group accounts for 92% of the 24 million people enrolled in an ACA marketplace plan.<\/p>\n<p>The enhanced premium subsidies are at the epicenter of the political fight around the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/11\/06\/federal-workers-missed-paychecks.html\">federal government shutdown<\/a>, now the longest in U.S. history.<\/p>\n<p>Democrats are pushing to extend the subsidies as part of a deal to reopen the government, while Republicans have said they want to negotiate the subsidies separately.<\/p>\n<p>Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer on Friday <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/11\/07\/government-shutdown-democrats-schumer-trump-aca.html\">proposed a one-year extension<\/a> of the existing enhanced subsidies as part of a deal to reopen the government. The deal would also establish a bipartisan committee to continue negotiations on long-term reforms to address the issue of health-care affordability.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"Placeholder-ArticleBody-Video-108220505\">\n<div role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" id=\"Placeholder-ArticleBody-Video-108220505\" class=\"PlaceHolder-wrapper\" data-vilynx-id=\"7000394296\" data-test=\"VideoPlaceHolder\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-videoEmbed\" id=\"InlineVideo-0\" data-test=\"InlineVideo\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"InlineVideo-inlineThumbnailContainer\"><span class=\"InlineVideo-videoButton\"\/><span\/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>More than half, 57%, of ACA marketplace enrollees live in Republican congressional districts, according to a recent KFF <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kff.org\/quick-take\/more-than-half-of-aca-marketplace-enrollees-live-in-republican-congressional-districts\/\" target=\"_blank\">analysis<\/a>. This year, about 80% of all premium tax credits, or $115 billion, went to ACA marketplace enrollees in states won by President Trump in last year\u2019s election, KFF <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kff.org\/quick-take\/more-than-3-in-4-aca-marketplace-enrollees-live-in-states-won-by-president-trump-in-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\">found<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Political pundits <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/politics\/elections\/takeaways-2025-elections-trump-looms-every-race-democrats-win-economy-rcna241698\" target=\"_blank\">have cited affordability as<\/a> a key issue that drove Democrats like New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani to victories in Tuesday\u2019s elections.<\/p>\n<p>Without enhanced subsidies, the average recipient\u2019s annual insurance premium will jump 114%, to $1,904 in 2026 from $888 in 2025, according to KFF, a nonpartisan health policy research group.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOn average, to keep their same plan, people getting a subsidy now will see their premium payments double next year,\u201d said Cynthia Cox, vice president and director of KFF\u2019s program on the Affordable Care Act.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<div class=\"RelatedContent-relatedContent\" id=\"RegularArticle-RelatedContent-1\">\n<div class=\"RelatedContent-container\">\n<div class=\"RelatedContent-nonCollapsibleContent\">\n<h2 id=\"read-more-cnbc-personal-finance-coverage\" class=\"RelatedContent-header\">Read more CNBC personal finance coverage<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Some, like Americans whose incomes exceed a certain threshold, will pay much more. They\u2019d be ineligible for any premium assistance due to the so-called \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/09\/10\/aca-enhanced-subsidies-expire-obamacare-premiums-rise.html\">subsidy cliff<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Take a 60-year-old couple earning $85,000 a year, for example, which is just over the threshold: Their annual premiums would rise by almost $23,000 in 2026, on average, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kff.org\/affordable-care-act\/aca-marketplace-premium-payments-would-more-than-double-on-average-next-year-if-enhanced-premium-tax-credits-expire\/\" target=\"_blank\">according<\/a> to KFF.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2 id=\"the-impact-of-losing-enhanced-premium-subsidies\" class=\"ArticleBody-subtitle\"><a id=\"headline1\"\/>The impact of losing enhanced premium subsidies<\/h2>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>The political fight around enhanced subsidies, which were enacted in 2021 under the Biden administration, is playing out during the ACA marketplace\u2019s open enrollment, when would-be enrollees are picking their health plans for 2026.<\/p>\n<p>They must do so by Dec. 15 to be covered at the start of the new year.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOpen enrollment is already starting with this big question mark,\u201d Cox said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imageEmbed\" id=\"ArticleBody-InlineImage-108208554\" data-test=\"InlineImage\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-wrapper\">\n<div>\n<p>U.S. House Minority Leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) speaks on the current government shutdown during a news conference at the U.S. Capitol on Oct. 6, 2025 in Washington, DC. <\/p>\n<p>Alex Wong | Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Swelling health insurance premiums will likely have many consequences for households, according to health policy experts.<\/p>\n<p>The Congressional Budget Office <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbo.gov\/system\/files\/2025-09\/61734-Health.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">estimates<\/a> about 4 million more people will join the ranks of the uninsured over the next decade if the enhanced subsidies disappear.<\/p>\n<p>That likely wouldn\u2019t happen immediately, Cox said. More than a million may drop coverage next year if they decide insurance premiums are unaffordable, she said.<\/p>\n<p>Others may opt to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/11\/03\/open-enrollment-how-to-pick-a-health-plan.html\">buy lower-tier plans<\/a> with smaller upfront premiums, she said. Those plans typically have much higher deductibles, meaning households would be on the hook for a hefty bill if they need to use their insurance, Cox said.<\/p>\n<p>In later years, some of these enrollees would likely drop their coverage, too, if they grow weary of the system and higher costs, Cox said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imageEmbed\" id=\"ArticleBody-InlineImage-108220642\" data-test=\"InlineImage\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-wrapper\">\n<div>\n<p>The healthcare.gov website on a laptop arranged in Norfolk, Virginia, US, on Saturday, Nov. 1, 2025. <\/p>\n<p>Stefani Reynolds | Bloomberg | Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Other enrollees, like Beth Keenan, say they intend to keep their current health plan and absorb the higher costs by cutting other expenses.<\/p>\n<p>Keenan, 62, an early retiree who lives in Pittsburgh, is using her ACA marketplace insurance plan as a bridge to Medicare benefits at age 65.<\/p>\n<p>She pays $589 a month in premiums, after accounting for a $302 monthly federal subsidy, also known as a premium tax credit. If the enhanced subsidies expire, Keenan\u2019s estimated net premium would jump to $1,065, up 81%, based on estimates from the state marketplace.<\/p>\n<p>Keenan\u2019s annual pension and Social Security income, totaling about $80,000, would be too high to qualify for aid.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cYou get <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/07\/14\/tax-cuts-private-jets-big-beautiful-bill.html\">tax credits<\/a> for private airplanes,\u201d said Keenan, who retired at 60 from her job as a county court administrator, a post she held for three decades. \u201cWhy shouldn\u2019t I get a tax break?\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imageEmbed\" id=\"ArticleBody-InlineImage-108222461\" data-test=\"InlineImage\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-wrapper\">\n<div>\n<p>US Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Republican of South Dakota, speaks to reporters on day 37 of the government shutdown, at the US Capitol in Washington, DC, November 6, 2025. <\/p>\n<p>Saul Loeb | Afp | Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Keenan expects the extra $500 or so per month won\u2019t cause financial hardship, she said. But the sum will likely force her to pull back on certain lifestyle expenses like travel, she said.<\/p>\n<p>The uncertainty around the availability of subsidies into the future is unnerving, especially knowing that insurers might raise premiums again for 2027, she said.<\/p>\n<p>Insurers raised premiums an estimated 26% for 2026, on average, for example, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kff.org\/quick-take\/aca-insurers-are-raising-premiums-by-an-estimated-26-but-most-enrollees-could-see-sharper-increases-in-what-they-pay\/\" target=\"_blank\">according<\/a> to KFF, exacerbating the loss of enhanced subsidies.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI know what I\u2019m doing [for] next year, but I have one year after that\u201d before Medicare benefits start, Keenan said. \u201cAre premiums going up [another] 20%? And then where else do you get insurance?\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2 id=\"subsidy-cliff-is-an-unfortunate-disincentive-to-work\" class=\"ArticleBody-subtitle\"><a id=\"headline2\"\/>Subsidy cliff is \u2018an unfortunate disincentive to work\u2019<\/h2>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>While certain enrollees would still qualify for a lesser tax credit if the enhanced subsidies disappear, those with incomes above 400% of the federal poverty level would no longer qualify for assistance.<\/p>\n<p>This is the so-called \u201csubsidy cliff.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>That threshold varies by household size. It\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coveredca.com\/pdfs\/FPL-chart.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">$62,600<\/a> for a one-person household and $128,600 for a four-person household in 2026, for example.<\/p>\n<p>Since 2021, the enhanced subsidies have been available to households that earn more than that. Annual premiums were also capped at 8.5% of household income.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>If the enhanced subsidies expire, that income cap would disappear, and those who earn even $1 above the 400% poverty line would be ineligible for premium tax credits. This would impact about 1 in 10 enrollees in an ACA marketplace plan, according to KFF.<\/p>\n<p>Matthew Espinoza, 46, is right on the cusp of that income threshold.<\/p>\n<p>The San Francisco resident, who works as a fitness instructor and restaurant server, expects his income to be roughly $60,000 to $65,000 next year, depending on how many hours he works.<\/p>\n<p>Where his income ultimately falls would make a big financial difference if the enhanced subsidies disappear, said Espinoza, who is also a full-time nursing student.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imageEmbed\" id=\"ArticleBody-InlineImage-108220641\" data-test=\"InlineImage\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-wrapper\">\n<div>\n<p>The healthcare.gov website on a laptop arranged in Norfolk, Virginia, US, on Saturday, Nov. 1, 2025. <\/p>\n<p>Stefani Reynolds | Bloomberg | Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>He pays $324 a month for subsidized ACA insurance premiums this year.<\/p>\n<p>Those subsidized premiums would rise to about $461 per month in 2026 if his annual income is $60,000, according to estimates through Covered California, the state marketplace. However, that premium would jump to $818 a month with a $65,000 income, since he\u2019d no longer qualify for assistance.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI haven\u2019t had to cut down on savings when I started school, but that\u2019d probably be the first thing that took a major hit\u201d if forced to pay the $818 premium, Espinoza said.<\/p>\n<p>Espinoza said he\u2019d be hyper-aware of his income in 2026 and, if it flirts with the 400% poverty threshold, he may try to limit <strong>his<\/strong> work hours to ensure eligibility for a premium tax credit.<\/p>\n<p>The subsidy cliff \u201cis an unfortunate disincentive to work,\u201d said KFF\u2019s Cox. \u201cFor some families, it totally makes financial sense, especially if they really need the health insurance.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<blockquote data-test=\"Pullquote\">\n<div class=\"Pullquote-pullquote\" style=\"border-top-color:#002f6c\">\n<div>\n<p>Open enrollment is already starting with this big question mark.<\/p>\n<div class=\"Pullquote-sourceWrapper\">\n<p>Cynthia Cox<\/p>\n<p>vice president and director of KFF\u2019s program on the Affordable Care Act<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Thompson, the Austin resident, doesn\u2019t want to drop her health coverage.<\/p>\n<p>But even lower-tier plans with high deductibles available on the ACA marketplace would still cost at least $3,000 a month for her family of four, she said, based on estimates via the marketplace.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe are not broke, but this would put us in that position,\u201d she said. \u201cIt\u2019s not the only bill.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>They\u2019re also looking into various options,\u00a0such as insuring only their two children and using a cooperative health share for Thompson and her husband, she said. (Such services aren\u2019t technically health insurance, and may come with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mass.gov\/news\/what-you-should-know-about-health-care-sharing-ministries-discount-plans-and-risk-sharing-plans\" target=\"_blank\">various risks<\/a>.)<\/p>\n<p>\u201cPeople think it\u2019s people who are undeserving that get subsidies,\u201d Thompson said. \u201cBut it\u2019s just neighbors, regular people.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/11\/08\/aca-subsidy-cliff-government-shutdown.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Members of the National Guard patrol near the U.S. Capitol on Oct. 1, 2025 in Washington, DC. Al&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":37858,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37857","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-investing","cs-entry","cs-video-wrap"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37857","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=37857"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37857\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/37858"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=37857"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=37857"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=37857"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}