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A prominent analyst is pushing back against growing fears that Bitcoin (BTC) is entering a prolonged downturn.<\/p>\n
The market technician is using historical price models to show that the current weakness is a typical pause within a larger upward trend, setting the stage for a future peak that could exceed $300,000.<\/p>\n
In an October 24 post on X, EGRAG CRYPTO pointed to a linear regression model on a logarithmic scale, a tool used to identify long-term trends.<\/p>\n
The analysis shows<\/a> Bitcoin is currently trading at its lowest level relative to its historical trend channel since 2012. And rather than a sign of doom, the analyst framed this as a prime buying opportunity, similar to patterns seen before major price increases in the past.<\/p>\n \u201cHistorical Data Never Lies,\u201d wrote EGRAG. \u201cEvery single macro cycle in Bitcoin\u2019s history shows the same pattern: BTC consolidates inside an ascending (rising) channel before breaking out massively to the upside.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n He noted that this had happened at least three times before and is currently \u201csetting up again.\u201d According to this model, a return to the midline of the channel would imply a price of approximately $175,000, with the upper band of the trend pointing toward $250,000 to $300,000.<\/p>\n This perspective directly challenges other commentators, like Dr. Profit, who warned<\/a> in a previous report that a drop below $101,700 would confirm a bear market.<\/p>\n Observers like Axel Adler Jr., have also hinted at the recovery being on track. Earlier today, he pointed out that the price has stayed above<\/a> a key level of $109,800, and a large number of bearish short positions could give the market the push<\/a> it needs to make a big move up once volatility calms down.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, data from CoinGecko shows BTC trading around $111,355, having picked up after a sharp decline last week that saw it dip below $105,000. While the flagship cryptocurrency is still down about 8% over the last two weeks, it has climbed more than 6% in the past seven days.<\/p>\n The broader financial landscape also offers reasons for optimism. Investment firm VanEck stated<\/a> in a recent market report that the drop in prices in October was not the start of a bear market, but rather a “liquidity-driven mid-cycle reset.” It also highlighted that the growth of the global money supply, or M2, will continue to be a major factor in Bitcoin’s long-term value.<\/p>\n This sentiment is echoed by the connection to traditional markets. According to Adler, the S&P 500 is in a “risk-on” mode and its moderate positive correlation with Bitcoin means that if stocks stay steady, crypto could benefit<\/a>. Furthermore, crypto podcaster Luke Martin shared<\/a> data on X showing that in the past, after big sell-offs, like the one on October 10, Bitcoin has gone up by an average of 25% over the next 90 days, suggesting history is on the bulls’ side.<\/p>\n The post Analyst Predicts $300K Bitcoin Peak Despite Bearish Mood<\/a> appeared first on CryptoPotato<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n
Macroeconomic Forces and Market Psychology<\/h2>\n