\n
<\/p>\n
Investor sentiment flipped sharply bearish as Bitcoin (BTC) and major crypto assets succumbed to macroeconomic pressures. Polymarket’s latest tweet has injected a fresh dose of skepticism into the Bitcoin narrative.<\/p>\n
The decentralized prediction market humorously noted that the odds of aliens being confirmed this year (6%) slightly surpass Bitcoin hitting $200,000 (5%). Yet beneath the levity, Polymarket’s data highlighted a more serious near-term risk.<\/p>\n
Polymarket is seeing<\/a> a 52% chance that Bitcoin could crash below $100,000 this month. This is in line with the broader market unease, as crypto analyst Ted Pillow recently stated that Bitcoin has already lost its critical $108,000 support level, which has left a minimal buffer until $101,000-$102,000. Pillow stated that a reclaim of $110,000 could trigger a short-term bounce, but otherwise, traders should brace for more pain before relief arrives.<\/p>\n Adding to the cautionary sentiment, Doctor Profit, another popular market analyst, called<\/a> the current environment the “early phase of the bear market,” which is seeing intense deceptive mini-rallies and sharp downside moves. He predicted the macro bottom would eventually settle between $60,000-$70,000.<\/p>\n According to Doctor Profit, traders should expect increasing selling pressure, with the Fear & Greed Index likely reaching<\/a> extreme fear levels in the coming days, further backed by the red numbers across the charts. As such, these factors paint a picture of a market navigating a precarious balance.<\/p>\n “Remember, dead cat bounces are the biggest enemy for us shorts. Play them or ignore them, but don’t fight them.”<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Macro uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on Bitcoin, and Glassnode revealed<\/a> a major change in sentiment across markets and derivatives. Over the past week, gold has outperformed Bitcoin by more than 20%, reclaiming part of its “store-of-value” appeal. This was indicative of investors’ growing caution toward crypto.<\/p>\n This caution has spilled over into the options market. Short-dated BTC volatility spiked sharply overnight, while front-end options traded around 50 vol as traders paid up for immediate downside protection. BTC skew still behaves like a macro asset, favoring puts – downside protection remains pricier than upside exposure amidst defensive positioning. The market is balanced, as seen with some accounts rolling protection lower, others selling volatility on the dip, and a few selectively buying cheap calls. Overall, the tone is cautious but not one-sided.<\/p>\n Broader volatility metrics confirm this defensiveness. Put-heavy skew, bid wing vols, and strong demand for tail hedges indicate traders remain focused on downside risk. Year-end upside exposure has cooled as downside vol continues to dominate. For those willing to take risks, selling puts or put spreads to finance November topside remains a viable strategy.<\/p>\n The post Bets on Polymarket Show Bitcoin (BTC) $200K Odds Are Slimmer Than Alien Discovery<\/a> appeared first on CryptoPotato<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n
Defensive Stance<\/h2>\n
Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Investor sentiment flipped sharply bearish as Bitcoin (BTC) and major crypto assets succumbed to macroeconomic pressures. Polymarket’s latest…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":18660,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37001","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-crypto","cs-entry","cs-video-wrap"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37001","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=37001"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37001\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/18660"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=37001"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=37001"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=37001"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}