{"id":34405,"date":"2025-07-16T18:40:35","date_gmt":"2025-07-16T18:40:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/?p=34405"},"modified":"2025-07-16T18:40:35","modified_gmt":"2025-07-16T18:40:35","slug":"trade-tariff-game-theory-with-dmitry-grozoubinski","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/?p=34405","title":{"rendered":"Trade tariff game theory, with Dmitry Grozoubinski"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> \n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for free<\/p>\n<p class=\"article__content-sign-up-topic-description o3-type-body-base\">Your guide to what Trump\u2019s second term means for Washington, business and the world<\/p>\n<p><iframe class=\"article__content-sign-up-iframe close\" scrolling=\"no\" id=\"signUpIframe\" data-prev-url=\"\/register\/in-article-sign-up?ft-content-uuid=4461b569-f12c-422a-afb0-29091a158423&amp;newsletter-id=65b8fec772badb00166eafc6\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<div id=\"article-body\">\n<p>Back in April, President Trump gave trading partners 90 days to strike trade deals, or face the reimposition of his so-called reciprocal tariffs. July 9 (last Wednesday) was D-Day.<\/p>\n<p>The deadline came and went. Trump kicked the can down the road, giving trading partners until August 1 to strike a deal, or face levies once more. And this time, he <em>really<\/em> means it.<\/p>\n<p>What has this <em>whomp-whomp<\/em> trade deadline actually taught us about the way Trump negotiates? <\/p>\n<p>Dmitry Grozoubinski joins MainFT\u2019s senior trade writer, Alan Beattie, on this week\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/the-economics-show\" data-trackable=\"link\">The Economics Show<\/a> podcast. Dmitry is a former Australia trade negotiator and founder of the consultancy ExplainTrade. <\/p>\n<p>He\u2019s also the author of <em>Why Politicians Lie About Trade<\/em> \u2014 which, as Alan points out, feels quite apt at the minute. <\/p>\n<p>Trump\u2019s trade strategy isn\u2019t just unusual, says Grozoubinski; it also seems to be pretty ineffective. Some of the glitches, such as when Trump sent a tariff-threatening letter to the King of Thailand, can be blamed on what Alan calls \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/d7509e0a-3348-4150-9633-3e996d836d7c\" data-trackable=\"link\">bumbling ineptitude<\/a>\u201d. <\/p>\n<p>Other flaws are more fundamental:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"o3-editorial-typography-list-unordered\">\n<li>\n<p>If a deadline isn\u2019t a deadline, it sort of loses its power. Or as Dmitry says, \u201cif you threaten to shoot a hostage and then you keep pushing the deadline back \u2026 it\u2019s not entirely clear you\u2019re going to do it.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>The US isn\u2019t giving its trading partners the chance to paint negotiations as a victory back home. Dmitry again: \u201cevery outcome or every step of progress is immediately heralded to the press as a triumph over a weak adversary.\u201d That makes it \u201cmuch more difficult for the people that they need to do favours for them to do those favours.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>It isn\u2019t entirely clear what the Trump administration actually wants from its tariff threats. Does the President want to bring business back home? Does he feel the US is getting ripped off? Or, as Dmitry suggests, does he simply want to show that he\u2019s the world\u2019s \u201capex predator\u201d?<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/d0a7ccae-be83-4c3d-aa36-2266924974e9\" data-trackable=\"link\">podcast<\/a>\u2019s free to access and there\u2019s a full <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/8ba1e4fc-fb1b-49df-bc92-feda5e0a398e\" data-trackable=\"link\">interview transcript<\/a>. Your thoughts are welcomed in the FTAV comment box. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/4461b569-f12c-422a-afb0-29091a158423\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for free Your guide to what Trump\u2019s second term means for Washington,&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":34406,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-34405","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-us","cs-entry","cs-video-wrap"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34405","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=34405"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34405\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/34406"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=34405"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=34405"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=34405"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}