{"id":33428,"date":"2025-07-10T04:21:53","date_gmt":"2025-07-10T04:21:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/?p=33428"},"modified":"2025-07-10T04:21:53","modified_gmt":"2025-07-10T04:21:53","slug":"texas-floods-ring-alarm-bells-over-global-early-warning-systems","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/?p=33428","title":{"rendered":"Texas floods ring alarm bells over global early warning systems"},"content":{"rendered":"

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A catastrophic flood that has killed more than 100 people in Texas has amplified concerns that countries are ill-prepared to warn citizens of impending dangers, even as climate change makes extreme weather events more frequent and intense.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Officials in the US face tough questions about why many people were not evacuated and whether sufficient warnings were given ahead of the Guadalupe River bursting its banks after intense rainfall in the early hours of Friday. About 170 people remain missing.<\/p>\n

The flood<\/a>, which took place over the US Independence Day weekend as tourists descended on the region, is the latest disaster in which critics have said lives were lost because of inadequate warnings.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Even in developed countries where communications and emergency services are readily available, a lack of sufficient warnings was cited as a significant factor behind deaths in Valencia, Spain, last year, where more than 200 people died in flash floods; Hawaii during wildfires in 2023, where more than 100 lives were lost; and Germany in 2021, where about 200 people were killed by floods.<\/p>\n

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Wildfire wreckage in Lahaina, Hawaii, in August 2023 <\/span> \u00a9 AP<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cThese types of disasters make me worried that our early warning systems are not prepared to deal with extreme weather,\u201d said Erin Coughlan de Perez, an early warning specialist at Tufts University near Boston and a senior adviser at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cIt is particularly shocking and concerning that the [Texas] flood was so deadly in a place that knows they are at risk of flash floods.\u201d <\/p>\n

So-called early warning systems\u00a0\u2014 used to alert people to an impending extreme weather event or disaster \u2014 are considered the first line of defence against climate change<\/a>. The UN has set a target for the entire world to be covered by such systems by the end of 2027.<\/p>\n

Such structures included weather forecasts, which were passed on to officials who must in turn communicate with the general public, said Ilan Kelman, professor of disasters and health at University College London.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Various channels can be used to transmit the warning to the population, such as sirens, mobile phone alerts or even more rudimentary options, such as individuals speaking from a fire engine or other vehicles.<\/p>\n

In Kerr County, Texas, hard hit by the floods, officials criticised the forecasts and said they had no indication the rainfall would be so great. The National Weather Service warned of a risk of flooding in the area on Thursday, and issued its first flash flood warning for Kerr County in the early hours of Friday.<\/p>\n

Hannah Cloke, a hydrologist at Reading university, said sufficient forecasts were available both in Texas and in other recent disasters, even though \u201cheavy rainfall is really tricky to predict when and where it is going to fall exactly\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have good forecasting systems. This is the really frustrating thing. With Texas, with Valencia, with the Germany floods\u2009.\u2009.\u2009.\u2009we had good indications there was going to be a serious problem\u2009.\u2009.\u2009.\u2009But those messages are not getting to people in time,\u201d she said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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A lack of sufficient warnings was cited as a significant factor behind deaths in Valencia, Spain, last year, where more than 200 people died in flash floods<\/span> \u00a9 Manu Fernandez\/AP<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

While the Texas flooding took place during the night in an area where mobile signal was patchy, she said a siren system, with an alert blasted from a speaker, could have helped save lives.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Almost a decade ago, officials in Kerr County discussed rolling out a siren warning system on the river, which had a long history of flooding, minutes from a 2016 meeting<\/a> show. <\/p>\n

Officials noted that \u201can audible system located at strategic points along the river\u201d would help let tourists and others know to evacuate. Media reports suggest that was later rejected because of the costs.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Around the US, early warning systems were a \u201cpatchwork system and vary locally and regionally\u201d, said Timon McPhearson, professor of environmental studies at New York University.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In New York, the city \u201ccan ping any phone\u201d, a similar set-up to many European countries, while other areas of the US had \u201cno systems at all\u201d, he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s the problem, and [is] why we need federal investment and commitments to help local vulnerable communities build systems that can decrease impacts.\u201d<\/p>\n

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Only half of countries worldwide say they have the capability to alert citizens about impending hazardous weather, according to the UN\u2019s Environment Programme.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Some areas have strong warning systems for one hazard, but not for others. Hawaii has a siren system for tsunamis, but struggled to warn people of wildfires in 2023. <\/p>\n

The global picture has improved: 108 countries said they had an multi-hazard early warning system in 2024, more than double the figure reported in 2015, UN figures show<\/a>. <\/p>\n

But Coughlan de Perez said that with more intense extreme weather events expected, countries needed to make such systems a high priority for investment. That includes investing in science and weather forecasting, \u201ccommunications to the public to make sure everyone receives the warning quickly\u201d, and training for populations.<\/p>\n

Japan, for example, runs frequent earthquake drills, as well as public campaigns on heat, flood and other risks. <\/p>\n

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An emergency warning from the NWS<\/span> \u00a9 Jeffrey Greenberg\/Universal Images Group\/Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Experts are concerned that authorities and the general public struggle to take seriously a forecast or warning about something they may not have seen before.<\/p>\n

Repeated disasters have shown that officials are at times unwilling to call for evacuations or similar measures despite forecasts, according to Thomas Kjeldsen, who lectures at Bath university.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou don\u2019t want to be the agency who cried wolf too many times,\u201d said Kjeldsen. \u201cThere is a trade-off between issuing lots of warnings and issuing enough warnings.\u201d<\/p>\n

To counter this, Coughlan de Perez has trained officials from governments and other organisations using extreme scenarios to force them to think about how the unexpected might play out and how they would react.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Cloke said people \u201ccannot imagine what those really serious floods or fires or other disasters look like\u201d, thinking these are \u201cjust the worst-case scenario\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cBut the worst-case scenario can actually happen. And in the case of the Texas floods it did happen\u2009.\u2009.\u2009.\u2009We need to prepare for those worst-case scenarios, because otherwise we are going to have more disasters where hundreds of people are dying.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Climate Capital<\/h3>\n
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Where climate change meets business, markets and politics.\u00a0Explore the FT\u2019s coverage here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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