The boom of explosions echoing across Doha as night set in the Qatari capital initially suggested that the Middle East\u2019s worst-case scenario was becoming a reality: the conflict between Israel and Iran had spilled over borders and threatened to engulf the region.<\/p>\n
But as the dust settled on Monday it became clear Iran\u2019s missile barrage at the US\u2019s Al Udeid military base was telegraphed, with missiles intercepted and no casualties reported \u2014 a calibrated response that paved the way for Donald Trump to hours later announce a ceasefire ending the Israeli-Iranian war.<\/p>\n
Yet the region is far from at peace. The truce \u2014 thrashed out in a couple of hours with terms not made public \u2014 is inherently fragile. Israel has vowed to respond \u201cforcefully\u201d to any violation; the Islamic regime said it was fully prepared \u201cwith their fingers on the trigger\u201d to retaliate against any new attacks.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe current moment has an air of real instability,\u201d said Michael Wahid Hanna at Crisis Group. \u201cWe\u2019re in a much better place than where things might have headed if we got into a kind of full-blown escalatory spiral, but a lot of questions remain.\u201d<\/p>\n
Without a clearly defined follow-on agreement, Israel \u2014 ever more emboldened and determined to cow its enemies in the wake of Hamas\u2019s October 7 2023 attack \u2014 and Iran could be entering a period of sporadic assaults, he warned.<\/p>\n
Israel carries out almost daily air strikes in Lebanon, despite agreeing to a ceasefire with the Iranian-backed militant movement Hizbollah in November, but the Islamic regime is a more formidable prospect.<\/p>\n While a weakened Hizbollah has quietly taken the hits, Tehran would be far more likely to respond to any future Israeli aggression and has shown its missile arsenal to be far more destructive.<\/p>\n Iran can also be expected to immediately begin the process of rebuilding its battered military capacity. And despite the damage inflicted on its nuclear sites by Israeli and US bombs, it is suspected to still retain its 400kg stockpile of uranium enriched close to weapons-grade levels.<\/p>\n Huge questions now hang over how Trump and Netanyahu will seek to deal with the lingering threat posed by Iran\u2019s nuclear programme.<\/p>\n Before Israel launched its war, the Trump administration was engaged in indirect talks to resolve the crisis. But that process was upended by Netanyahu\u2019s decision \u2014 with Trump\u2019s tacit support \u2014 to launch strikes on the Islamic republic.<\/p>\n The programme has clearly been set back. But with Tehran\u2019s stockpile of highly enriched uranium unaccounted for \u2014 and with the republic retaining the knowledge and technology it has built up in recent years \u2014 the danger of the regime deciding to weaponise to restore its deterrent still lingers.<\/p>\n Any signs it was would risk drawing more Israeli fire, with Netanyahu on Tuesday warning Israel was prepared to repeat its assault if the Islamic republic tries to revive its nuclear programme.<\/p>\n \u201cIf someone in Iran thinks they can rebuild the nuclear programme, we will act in the same way,\u201d he said.\u00a0\u201cI repeat: Iran will not have a nuclear weapon.\u201d<\/p>\n Much will depend on Trump, the unpredictable, self-declared most pro-Israel US president in history.<\/p>\n He has so far refused to step up pressure on Israel to end its devastating 20-month war in Gaza \u2014 even as Netanyahu breached the January ceasefire Trump\u2019s envoys helped broker \u2014 or rein in settlers in the occupied West Bank.<\/p>\n But Trump has also displayed a propensity to act against Netanyahu\u2019s interests when it serves his own objectives.<\/p>\n He ended a US military campaign against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen while they continued to fire at Israel, and met the new Syrian president Ahmed al-Sharaa, a man denounced by Israel as a dangerous jihadist, lifting sanctions on the Arab state.<\/p>\n When Israel and Iran violated Tuesday\u2019s ceasefire hours after it came into force, Trump was quick to call out both parties in an expletive-laden tirade.<\/p>\n If he still pursues a nuclear deal with Iran, Trump will face the main stumbling block that dogged previous efforts: Washington\u2019s demand that Tehran stop enriching uranium domestically, a red line for the regime.<\/p>\n If Trump makes concessions, would that be sufficient to prevent any further Israeli strikes? If Iran refuses to capitulate, will that once more raise the spectre of military strikes? <\/p>\n \u201cIsrael remains dependent on US acquiescence and support, both military and diplomatic, and that gets to the core of it, which is: what does Donald Trump want?\u201d said Hanna. \u201cTrump does have an opportunity to bend Israel in a way that is different from prior administrations, but in general he hasn\u2019t necessarily shown an inclination for that.\u201d<\/p>\n An early test could come soon, after Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani \u2014 who helped Trump broker the Israel-Iran ceasefire \u2014 said on Tuesday that Doha hoped to resume talks for a Gaza ceasefire in the next two days.<\/p>\n Arab and western leaders have for decades said that resolving the protracted Palestinian-Israel conflict is key to neutering extremist forces and addressing one of the core underlying causes of instability across the region. <\/p>\n But Netanyahu has repeatedly rebuffed western pressure to make any concessions to the Palestinians, let alone take steps towards the establishment of a Palestinian state.<\/p>\n Instead, with backing from successive US administrations, Israel has dramatically raised its risk appetite and gone on the offensive in the wake of Hamas\u2019s October 7 attack. The Israeli prime minister on Tuesday pledged to destroy the militant group and free the hostages still held in Gaza. <\/p>\n Netanyahu boasts of changing the balance of power in the Middle East, and Israel\u2019s military superiority clear to all following a string of spectacular battlefield achievements.<\/p>\n \u201cFor many Israelis, the assumption is that this is as good as it gets \u2014 \u2018there\u2019s no next step to conclude a durable peace, it is Israel\u2019s fate is to struggle in a hostile neighbourhood,\u2019\u201d said Jon Alterman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. <\/p>\n \u201cThere\u2019s a whole school of thought that \u2018land for peace\u2019, a durable peace is an illusion, that Israel will always have to be armed to the teeth.\u201d But, he added, \u201cDoes Trump now feel Netanyahu owes him?\u201d<\/p>\n Uzi Arad, a former national security adviser to Netanyahu, said much of Israel\u2019s recent success on the battlefield was due to its enemies underestimating its military capabilities and its higher risk threshold.<\/p>\n But that carries its own dangers, he warned, of Israel underestimating its enemies, as it did before Hamas\u2019s attack triggered the wave of hostilities. Israel similarly missed the warnings about the surprise 1973 attack from its Arab neighbours after stunning victories in the 1967 Six-Day war.<\/p>\n \u201cSome already are practising hubris \u2014 I can already detect it,\u201d Arad, also a Mossad veteran, said. \u201cWe all have weaknesses, and this is a complicated country.\u201d<\/p>\n![\"This](\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/https%3A%2F%2Fd1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net%2Fproduction%2Ff0fd0ffe-52ae-4ac0-9554-961b90f24407.jpg?source=next-article&fit=scale-down&quality=highest&width=700&dpr=1\")
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