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An extended conflict in the Middle East is now the \u201cmost likely\u201d scenario after the US escalation over the weekend, commodities analysts at ANZ said on Monday morning. <\/p>\n
\u201cRisks of supply disruption in the crude oil market have risen sharply following an escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict,\u201d Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari, commodity strategists at the Australian lender, wrote in a note. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe most likely scenario (we estimate a 50% probability) in our view is an extended conflict. This would see supplies come under direct threat,\u201d they said. <\/p>\n
\u201cHowever, the oil market is better equipped to respond to that than it has been in the past,\u201d they added, noting that Opec has more than 6mn barrels a day of spare capacity that can be quickly activated. <\/p>\n
They expected a price range of $75-$85 a barrel \u201cfor this scenario\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n
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