This article is an on-site version of our Swamp Notes newsletter. Premium subscribers can sign up here<\/a> to get the newsletter delivered every Monday and Friday. Standard subscribers can upgrade to Premium here<\/a>, or explore<\/a> all FT newsletters<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Is it something you said Canada? Donald Trump has twice made an early exit from a G7 summit, both times hosted by Canada. On each occasion, it was for pretty much the same reason; Trump likes Vladimir Putin and the other six leaders don\u2019t. More specifically, Trump alone believes the group should readmit Russia, which was expelled in 2014 after Putin annexed Crimea. In 2018, the departing Trump complained, \u201cThey should let Russia come back in.\u201d Earlier this week he resurfaced the same grievance as if nothing had happened in between. \u201cI would say that was a mistake,\u201d he said of Putin\u2019s exclusion (and by implication Volodymyr Zelenskyy\u2019s invitation), \u201cbecause I think you wouldn\u2019t have a war right now <\/em>(my italics).\u201d<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s pretext for bolting was that he needed to make decisions on the Israel-Iran war. But at the time of writing Trump has clarified nothing; he could just as easily have posted his dramatic warnings to Iran \u2014 including his demand for its \u201cunconditional surrender\u201d \u2014 from the summit in Alberta. From my own conversations, it seems clear the real trigger for Trump\u2019s departure was that he was in a minority of one. Forget G8. They are increasingly the G6. Trump places zero stock on meetings of like-minded democracies. By contrast, he is in his element when rubbing shoulders with other personalist strongmen (see his recent trip to the Gulf). The summit he most craves is between him and Putin.<\/p>\n That Trump believes Putin invaded Ukraine because Russia was kicked out of the G7 is flabbergasting to every other western leader, even ideological cousins such as Italy\u2019s Giorgia Meloni. To put the most charitable gloss on Trump\u2019s words, he could have been symbolically showcasing the club\u2019s membership rules to cover more general western disrespect of Russia. There may be a smidgen of truth to Russia\u2019s fears of Nato\u2019s eastward expansion. But that hardly explains the fury with which Russia has brutalised the parts of Ukraine that it occupies. Putin has never disguised his yen to restore the Russian empire.<\/p>\n More pertinent is that Canada\u2019s Mark Carney wanted to reach a summit consensus for a new round of Russia sanctions to force Putin to the negotiating table. Again, Trump was uninterested. Indeed, he recently disbanded an administration working group that was set up to find Russian pressure points that would furnish sticks to match all the carrots Trump has been dangling. Many of the working group\u2019s National Security Council staffers were fired by Trump last month. But the real cause of its demise was Trump\u2019s lack of interest in applying any pressure on Putin unless we\u2019re talking about a back massage.<\/p>\n Which brings us back to the most persistent question about Trump since he first ran in 2016. Why is he so solicitous of Putin? I have always been sceptical of the theory that Putin has salacious kompromat<\/em> on Trump. But Putin nevertheless has some kind of hold on Trump, which is not two-way. Trump\u2019s overt admiration for Putin remains a deep enigma with geopolitical consequences. We will see next week how Trump responds to the same group of western leaders plus 25 others at the Nato summit in The Hague. One of Trump\u2019s first term national security advisers, John Bolton, predicted that Trump would quit Nato in his second term. There are no signs that is about to happen. But I will be watching next week\u2019s gathering with unusual interest. So will Putin. Trump can never disguise what he is feeling.<\/p>\n I am turning this week to Max Seddon, the FT\u2019s excellent Moscow bureau chief. Max, what is your best description of how Putin sees Trump? My hunch is that Trump is Putin\u2019s useful idiot. But that may be too simplistic. Is there a Dr Strangelove side to Trump \u2014 an unpredictability \u2014 of which Putin is wary? But even as I write that question, I recall that Trump has been very predictable on Russia, which he treats far better than allies.<\/p>\n On another subject entirely, my column this week is about the return of the American assassin<\/a>. \u201cTrump\u2019s message is plain,\u201d I write. \u201cIf you commit violence in his cause, he will have your back. That Trump nearly lost his own life to an assassin is apparently immaterial.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n Do also read my colleague Kim Ghattas\u2019 on-point oped<\/a> in the FT on why \u201cNetanyahu is good at starting wars, but it\u2019s ending them that matters\u201d. In addition to Netanyahu\u2019s Houdini skills in prolonging his stay in office, the salient point is that Israel has started a war it cannot finish alone.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n Elsewhere, read Elizabeth Saunders in Foreign Affairs<\/a> on why Trump is an \u201cImperial president at home, emperor abroad\u201d. Congress has abandoned any last vestige of say in US foreign policy. The world\u2019s superpower has a one-man foreign policy.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n Finally, I was fascinated by this insightful profile<\/a> of Britain\u2019s prime minister in the New Statesman by its new editor, Tom McTague \u2014 \u201cWhat Keir Starmer can\u2019t say\u201d. It confirmed two suspicions. The first is that Starmer is a genuinely decent human being. The second is that he is an incrementalist without a larger theory of the case \u2014 \u201cthe manager of the decaying post-Blairite order\u201d, in McTague\u2019s words. Britain today needs a leader with the ambition of a Margaret Thatcher or a Clement Attlee. What we have is James Callaghan.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n Dear Ed, greetings from Berlin. In more normal circumstances I\u2019d be writing you from the St Petersburg economic forum, where Russia has traditionally ferried the great and good of the western business elite to hobnob with Putin. (I like to say being Moscow bureau chief is like being the king of Yugoslavia: my titles and responsibilities are the same, though the role has changed somewhat with the times). But a far more conspicuous absence than mine is that of American CEOs and investors, who have shunned the forum despite Trump\u2019s efforts to rebuild ties to Russia through trade and the Kremlin\u2019s attempts to woo them back.<\/p>\n It\u2019s symptomatic of how the rapprochement Trump claimed to be launching after he called Putin in February (the first acknowledged time they spoke since he took office, though there were likely a call or three we don\u2019t know about) isn\u2019t happening. Trump has all but given up on brokering a peace deal in Ukraine. Despite the several visits Trump\u2019s envoy Steve Witkoff made to Russia, Putin hasn\u2019t given any ground. Russia has essentially rejected Trump\u2019s peace plan and told Witkoff not to bother with another trip.\u00a0<\/p>\n Clearly, Trump thought his cozy relationship with Putin would be enough to seal a deal. After all, the Russian president was nice enough to wish him a happy birthday on Saturday. But the problem with useful idiots is they have to be useful. And I don\u2019t think Russia has got all it hoped out of Trump. Even as Trump and Putin cosied up in his first term, the US increased sanctions against Russia and weapons supplies to Ukraine. That taught the Kremlin there was only so much a bromance could achieve when the countries\u2019 interests were so clearly at odds. And if Trump\u2019s tendency to side with Moscow over Kyiv has been predictable, his flip-flopping policy on Ukraine is anything but \u2014 offering an olive branch to Russia one minute and tough sanctions the next. \u201cWe have a six-month window to make a breakthrough,\u201d one prominent Trump-loving Muscovite told me late last year. \u201cOtherwise we\u2019ll fuck everything up just like last time and things will get even worse.\u201d<\/p>\n This time around, the Kremlin has appealed to Trump\u2019s mercantile instincts. Russia and the US have discussed deals on rare earth minerals and reviving the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Witkoff has spoken of \u201cvery compelling commercial opportunities\u201d awaiting if a deal can be done. But this is all elementary unless Putin agrees to end his invasion of Ukraine. And faced with the choice between resetting ties with the US and pushing to win the war, he\u2019s opted for the latter.<\/p>\n Putin has been careful to flatter Trump in public. \u201cHe\u2019s not just a politician, he\u2019s a businessman. I see a big plus in that \u2014 he does the math on everything, and since he\u2019s a rich man, he\u2019s clearly good at it,\u201d Putin said on Wednesday. \u201cHe\u2019s done the math on various steps [the US] could take on Russia, what it would cost taxpayers, would the economy get a boost or take a hit [\u2026] I\u2019m counting on the [US] to make decisions that will restore US-Russia relations.\u201d But by not taking the very favourable deal Witkoff offered him, Putin showed he\u2019s only really interested if Trump throws Ukraine under the bus for good. It\u2019s a gamble that Russia can press home its advantage and finally win the crushing victory Putin thought his troops would secure three years ago. After all, Trump may not be around four years from now. But Putin almost certainly will \u2014 and wants his historical achievement of restoring Russia\u2019s glory, as he sees it, to last much longer.<\/p>\n I\u2019d also argue Putin isn\u2019t the only world leader to learn how to push Trump\u2019s buttons. Is he even the best at it, Ed? Shinzo Abe, Benjamin Netanyahu, and the Gulf monarchies all secured tangible results. Putin, meanwhile, for all Trump\u2019s admiration, doesn\u2019t have that much to show for it.<\/p>\n We\u2019d love to hear from you. You can email the team on <\/em>swampnotes@ft.com<\/em><\/a>, contact Ed on <\/em>edward.luce@ft.com<\/em><\/a> and Max on <\/em>max.seddon@ft.com<\/em><\/a>, and follow them on X at <\/em>@maxseddon<\/em><\/a> and <\/em>@EdwardGLuce<\/em><\/a>. We may feature an excerpt of your response in the next newsletter<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Trade Secrets<\/strong> \u2014 A must-read on the changing face of international trade and globalisation. Sign up here<\/a><\/p>\n Unhedged<\/strong> \u2014 Robert Armstrong dissects the most important market trends and discusses how Wall Street\u2019s best minds respond to them. Sign up here<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\nRecommended reading<\/h2>\n
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