This is an on-site version of the White House Watch newsletter. You can read the previous edition\u00a0here<\/a>. Sign up for free here<\/a> to\u00a0get it on Tuesdays and Thursdays. Email us at\u00a0whitehousewatch@ft.com<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Good morning and welcome to White House Watch. Let\u2019s get right into:<\/p>\n Will he or won\u2019t he?\u00a0<\/p>\n Yesterday Donald Trump made his most explicit comments yet about possible US military action against Iran, saying that the next week would be \u201cvery big\u201d<\/a> in determining the course of the Iran war \u2014 and whether the US would get involved.<\/p>\n \u201cI may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I\u2019m going to do,\u201d the president said at the White House.<\/p>\n Later in the Oval Office, he told reporters that \u201cI have ideas as to what to do, but I haven\u2019t made a final, I like to make a final decision one second before it\u2019s due\u2009.\u2009.\u2009.\u2009because things change\u2009.\u2009.\u2009.\u2009especially with war\u201d.<\/p>\n Trump has huddled with his advisers in the Situation Room twice in the past two days, and has a third meeting planned later this morning.<\/p>\n As he weighs striking Iran alongside Israel, he will also be considering how Tehran might retaliate<\/a>.<\/p>\n Possible responses could include direct attacks on US forces or diplomatic missions in the Middle East, cyber attacks, terrorist acts, strikes by Tehran\u2019s proxies in the region, or disruption to shipments of oil and gas from the Gulf, former national security officials told me.<\/p>\n Iran\u2019s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has warned Washington of \u201cirreparable damage\u201d if the US joins Israel in attacking the Islamic state.<\/p>\n Iran is \u201cprepared now\u201d for a counterstrike against the US, and has a \u201crange of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones\u201d that it could use to hit American bases and ships, former Air Force secretary Frank Kendall told me.<\/p>\n But that did not mean it would do so immediately, he added. That was \u201can escalation question\u201d for the Iranians, he said, and \u201ca calculation of what additional attacks would be remounted if they responded\u201d to the US.<\/p>\n A US strike also poses a political risk for Trump. There\u2019s a fierce battle playing out publicly on the right<\/a>, with the president\u2019s supporters divided on what he should do.<\/p>\n Maga supremo Steve Bannon said yesterday that \u201cwe can\u2019t do this again. We\u2019ll tear the country apart. We can\u2019t have another Iraq\u201d.<\/p>\n The former chief strategist to Trump said: \u201cMy mantra right now: the Israelis have to finish what they started. They started this. They should finish it.\u201d<\/p>\n Follow the latest developments on the Israel-Iran conflict at our <\/em>live blog<\/em><\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n The Federal Reserve cut its outlook for the US economy<\/a>, with policymakers split on whether they would be able to reduce interest rates at all this year.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Foreign investors\u2019 stockpile of US government debt fell only modestly in April <\/a>despite turbulence in the Treasury market driven by \u201cliberation day\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n US residential construction dropped to a five-year low<\/a> in May, as homebuilders grappled with Trump\u2019s tariffs, high mortgage rates and excess inventory.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n The president plans to sign an executive order to delay for a third time the US ban on TikTok<\/a>, as the Chinese-owned social media app approaches a deadline to divest a stake in the platform to satisfy American law. <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n So what would a US strike on Iran actually look like<\/a>? [Free to read]\n The most likely scenario is that the US would strike Fordow, that critical nuclear facility under a mountain we were talking about on Tuesday.<\/p>\n I had a chat with retired four-star general Joseph Votel, the former head of US Central Command, which is responsible for US military operations in the Middle East. He told me:<\/p>\n In order to deliver this thing, we have to make sure that we\u2019re operating in an environment where we kind of control all the variables [such as] air defence systems of the Iranians or electronic warfare, things [that] can be suppressed.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n The US would drop GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs, also called \u201cbunker busters<\/a>\u201d, which can only be carried by stealth B-2 bombers. Each plane can carry two of the 30,000-pound mega bombs. <\/p>\n \u201cThere are fairly significant but not insurmountable logistics\u201d for the Pentagon and Centcom, Votel said.<\/p>\n The US would be likely to get four or five B-2 bombers over to the US-UK base on Diego Garcia \u2014 enough to carry out the mission and have backup aircraft ready, Votel said. B-2 bombers would be joined by other jets, including ones outfitted with GPS \u2014 or laser-guided munitions, to carry out the strike.\u00a0<\/p>\n The US has already deployed air-to-air refuelling aircraft \u2014 essentially flying jet fuel tanks \u2014 to Europe that could fill up US or Israeli planes on the strike mission.\u00a0<\/p>\n The B-2s would probably drop multiple bombs on Fordow: \u201cOur targeting process is to target, assess and then retarget\u201d, Votel said.<\/p>\n As Trump makes a fateful choice on Iran, the US president risks being dragged into another regime change folly<\/a> in the Middle East, writes our editorial board. <\/p>\n<\/li>\n Nippon Steel\u2019s $15bn deal for US Steel introduces the era of \u201cstick-holder capitalism\u201d,<\/a> which doesn\u2019t fully serve shareholders\u2019 interests, says Leo Lewis. <\/p>\n<\/li>\n As Trump warms to the idea of using US military might against Iran, there are signs that the anti-war right is linking up with the anti-war left,<\/a> writes Gideon Rachman.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n US exceptionalism has not disappeared, but it may be shifting significantly<\/a>, argues Grace Peters, co-global head of investment strategy for JPMorgan Private Bank.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n As some investors worry that US economic institutions are being eroded, former central banker Raghuram Rajan reminds readers that strong institutions don\u2019t fix broken politics.<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n FT Exclusive <\/strong>\u2014 Be the first to see exclusive FT scoops, features, analysis and investigations. Sign up here<\/a><\/p>\n Breaking News<\/strong> \u2014 Be alerted to the latest stories as soon as they\u2019re published. Sign up here<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\nThe latest headlines<\/h2>\n
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