{"id":31307,"date":"2025-06-19T11:21:51","date_gmt":"2025-06-19T11:21:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/?p=31307"},"modified":"2025-06-19T11:21:51","modified_gmt":"2025-06-19T11:21:51","slug":"us-weighs-risks-of-iranian-retaliation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/?p=31307","title":{"rendered":"US weighs risks of Iranian retaliation"},"content":{"rendered":"

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As Donald Trump huddles with advisers in the White House\u2019s situation room weighing whether to join Israel in striking Iran, the US president will also be considering how Tehran might retaliate.<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has warned Washington of \u201cirreparable damage\u201d if the US joins in Israel\u2019s war on the Islamic republic.<\/p>\n

That could include direct attacks on US forces or diplomatic missions in the Middle East, cyber attacks, terrorism, strikes by Tehran\u2019s proxies in the region, or disruption to shipments of oil and gas out of the Gulf, the world\u2019s biggest energy-exporting region, said former US national security officials.<\/p>\n

\u201cTrump is likely hearing the list of options open to the Ayatollah: attacking US ships and bases, or attacking US Gulf allies such as Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates,\u201d said Elliott Abrams, who was the special representative for Iran and Venezuela in the first Trump administration. <\/p>\n

A third option for Iran<\/a>, Abrams said, was to \u201cclose\u201d the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which a third of the world\u2019s seaborne crude passes each day. That would \u201c[raise] world oil prices immediately\u201d, he said. <\/p>\n

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Since rushing back to Washington from the G7 summit in Canada on Monday night, Trump<\/a> has met his top intelligence, security and defence advisers twice in the situation room, the president\u2019s intelligence nerve centre in the White House\u2019s West Wing. He is due to have a third meeting on Thursday. A decision has not yet been made on whether the US will fully join the war.<\/p>\n

On Wednesday, six days after Israel launched its assault on Iran, Trump said the next week would be \u201cvery big\u201d in determining the course of the new conflict \u2014 and whether the US would get involved.<\/p>\n

\u201cI have ideas as to what to do, but I haven\u2019t made a final, I like to make a final decision one second before it\u2019s due\u2009.\u2009.\u2009.\u2009because things change\u2009.\u2009.\u2009.\u2009especially with war,\u201d he told reporters in the Oval Office.<\/p>\n

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Iran\u2019s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei delivers a televised message to the country on Wednesday following Israel\u2019s strikes<\/span> \u00a9 Iranian Supreme Leader\/WANA\/Reuters<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

As he spoke, US military assets, including a new aircraft carrier group, were on their way to the Middle East<\/a>.<\/p>\n

But Iran was \u201cprepared now\u201d for a counterstrike against the US, with a \u201crange of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones\u201d available that it could use to hit American bases and ships, said former air force secretary Frank Kendall.<\/p>\n

That did not mean it would do so immediately, Kendall said. It would be \u201can escalation question\u201d for the Iranians, he added, and \u201ca calculation of what additional attacks would be remounted if they responded\u201d to the US.<\/p>\n

The US has approximately 40,000 troops and military personnel in the Middle East, according to a US defence official. It operates eight permanent bases in the region, in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE. It also has a presence at 11 other military sites, including in Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Syria.<\/p>\n

The biggest US base is Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the regional headquarters for US Central Command, which is responsible for military operations throughout the Middle East. The base houses about 10,000 US troops. Another 13,500 or so troops are in Kuwait, while a further 9,000 reside at the US naval base in Bahrain.<\/p>\n

Iran could target the sites and bases in the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait, said Kendall. These are equipped with aerial defences, but are within closer range of Iran than Israel, meaning shorter-range missiles could be used and there would be less warning time.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey\u2019re always on a reasonable set of alert because of potential attacks, but I would assume [it] would be higher 1750332111,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

The US also has about 2,500 troops in Iraq and hundreds in Syria. These personnel could be vulnerable to attacks from Iranian-backed Shia militants \u2014 who have in the past fired rockets and drones at US assets and troops \u2014 as well as from Iran\u2019s missiles.<\/p>\n

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Iranian small boats near a US Navy convoy in the Strait of Hormuz in 2018. One risk is that Iran could use fast-attack boats and other weapons to disrupt Gulf oil shipments in the narrow waterway<\/span> \u00a9 APFootage\/Alamy<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Another risk Trump must consider is that the US could fail to destroy Fordow, the Iranian nuclear facility buried half a kilometre beneath a mountain. <\/p>\n

Fordow is one of Iran\u2019s two main uranium enrichment facilities and the US and Israel consider its destruction key to eliminating the republic\u2019s nuclear programme. Iran says the programme is for civilian purposes.<\/p>\n

Demolishing the subterranean facility could involve the US dropping 30,000-pound \u201cbunker buster\u201d bombs<\/a> from stealth bombers.<\/p>\n

But the mission would be laced with risk \u2014 and could fail. <\/p>\n

If so, Fordow would be likely to \u201cremain a challenge for non-proliferation efforts\u201d, Heather Williams, director of the Project on Nuclear Issues at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think-tank, said in a note.<\/p>\n

Iran could also regroup and be more determined to covertly develop a nuclear weapons programme. The republic was already enriching uranium to levels close to weapons grade. <\/p>\n

\u201cAny additional damage would set them back perhaps years, but it would not stop them from reconstituting or continuing a programme to acquire nuclear weapons,\u201d said Kendall. <\/p>\n

Iran could also strike back with punishing economic effect by targeting energy supplies out of the Gulf.<\/p>\n

In 2019, the vulnerabilities were exposed when a missile and drone attack blamed on Iran temporarily knocked out half of Saudi Arabia\u2019s crude oil output. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states have in recent years engaged in a d\u00e9tente with Iran, seeking to reduce tensions and ward off more strikes. <\/p>\n

In the Strait of Hormuz, Iran could use fast-attack boats, submarines and land-based anti-ship weapons to strike sailing ships, said Kendall. Alternatively, it could mine the waterway. <\/p>\n

But Iran also uses the strait for its own oil exports, its key source of foreign currency. That could reduce the risk of Tehran targeting the strait, but ships would still be \u201cvulnerable to attack\u201d, added Kendall.<\/p>\n

Since Hamas\u2019s October 7 2023 attack on Israel, Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen have already severely disrupted maritime traffic through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, despite months of air strikes by the US targeting the group.<\/p>\n