{"id":31175,"date":"2025-06-18T05:35:22","date_gmt":"2025-06-18T05:35:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/?p=31175"},"modified":"2025-06-18T05:35:22","modified_gmt":"2025-06-18T05:35:22","slug":"restaurants-flash-a-warning","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/?p=31175","title":{"rendered":"Restaurants flash a warning"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> \n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for free<\/p>\n<p class=\"article__content-sign-up-topic-description o3-type-body-base\">Your guide to what Trump\u2019s second term means for Washington, business and the world<\/p>\n<p><iframe class=\"article__content-sign-up-iframe close\" scrolling=\"no\" id=\"signUpIframe\" data-prev-url=\"\/register\/in-article-sign-up?ft-content-uuid=c6bfad03-e495-4603-af2b-9d4b4fe5cb2f&amp;newsletter-id=65b8fec772badb00166eafc6\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<div id=\"article-body\">\n<div class=\"n-content-layout\" data-layout-name=\"card\" data-layout-width=\"full-width\">\n<div class=\"n-content-layout__container\">\n<div class=\"n-content-layout__slot\">\n<p>This article is an on-site version of our Unhedged newsletter. Premium subscribers can sign up <a href=\"https:\/\/ep.ft.com\/newsletters\/subscribe?newsletterIds=584573e552860d000491cdb8\" data-trackable=\"link\">here<\/a> to get the newsletter delivered every weekday. Standard subscribers can upgrade to Premium <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/manage\/subscription\/change\/713f1e28-0bc5-8261-f1e6-eebab6f7600e?segmentId=5d1c2689-3304-f81f-a9e5-b3e96e93c176\" data-trackable=\"link\">here<\/a>, or <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/newsletters\" data-trackable=\"link\">explore<\/a> all FT newsletters<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Good morning. Tensions continue to rise in the Middle East. Yesterday, President Donald Trump <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/00996449-94bf-48d5-ad8c-21eef78a91f4\" data-trackable=\"link\">called<\/a> for Iran\u2019s \u201cunconditional surrender\u201d (what does that mean in this context?) and US military assets moved closer to the region. The Brent crude price rose 5 per cent. Email us: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/mailto:unhedged@ft.com\" data-trackable=\"link\">unhedged@ft.com<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"restaurants\" class=\"n-content-heading-2 o3-editorial-typography-chapter\">Restaurants<\/h2>\n<p>The May retail sales <a href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/retail\/marts\/www\/marts_current.pdf\" data-trackable=\"link\">report<\/a> was dreary. Sales fell 0.9 per cent from April, with particular weakness in autos and building materials. It\u2019s too early to declare this the start of the tariff-and-poor-sentiment consumer slowdown everyone has been expecting. But it sure isn\u2019t good news. \u201cWe think further weakness in spending is likely in the coming months as tariff costs are passed on to consumers,\u201d sighed Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics. Steven Blitz of TS Lombard points out that real growth in discretionary spending, on a rolling six-month basis, peaked back in October.<\/p>\n<p>We\u2019re particularly interested in the sharp fall in spending at restaurants and bars, which we think of as the paradigmatic discretionary spending item (what do we all resolve to do when we want to save money? Eat out less).\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure class=\"n-content-image n-content-image--full\" data-component=\"image-set\"><picture><source media=\"(min-width: 700px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/ftcms%3A01b341eb-7422-48f2-a7cb-afe74db9bd24?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=700&amp;dpr=1 1x,https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/ftcms%3A01b341eb-7422-48f2-a7cb-afe74db9bd24?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=700&amp;dpr=2 2x,https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/ftcms%3A01b341eb-7422-48f2-a7cb-afe74db9bd24?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=700&amp;dpr=3 3x,https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/ftcms%3A01b341eb-7422-48f2-a7cb-afe74db9bd24?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=700&amp;dpr=4 4x,https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/ftcms%3A01b341eb-7422-48f2-a7cb-afe74db9bd24?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=700&amp;dpr=5 5x\" width=\"3500\" height=\"2500\"\/><source media=\"(max-width: 490px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/ftcms%3A1730b6a7-afee-44f5-8564-33cf35b54e5c?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=490&amp;dpr=1 1x,https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/ftcms%3A1730b6a7-afee-44f5-8564-33cf35b54e5c?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=490&amp;dpr=2 2x,https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/ftcms%3A1730b6a7-afee-44f5-8564-33cf35b54e5c?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=490&amp;dpr=3 3x\" width=\"1500\" height=\"2000\"\/><\/picture><\/figure>\n<p>Restaurant sales are a noisy series so, again, we aren\u2019t reading too much into one bad month. But we\u2019ll be watching this area closely. The restaurant stocks in the S&amp;P 500 have been underperforming the wider index for a few months, as Starbucks, McDonald&#8217;s and Yum Brands all struggle.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>There is another angle here too, pointed out by Matt Klein over at <a href=\"https:\/\/theovershoot.co\/\" data-trackable=\"link\">The Overshoot<\/a>: inflation. He notes that restaurant prices provided a warning that pandemic reopening inflation would last, that they have never got all the way back to their pre-pandemic trend, and that they are reaccelerating now. His chart (gold star for the title):\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure class=\"n-content-image n-content-image--full\" data-component=\"image-set\"><picture><source media=\"(min-width: 700px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/ftcms%3Afd5c356a-93e9-4dc9-babe-7148108db96a?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=699&amp;dpr=1 1x\" width=\"699\" height=\"632\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/https%3A%2F%2Fd1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net%2Fproduction%2Ffd5c356a-93e9-4dc9-babe-7148108db96a.png?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=700&amp;dpr=1\" alt=\"Restaurant inflation chart\" data-image-type=\"image\" width=\"699\" height=\"632\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/picture><\/figure>\n<p>Weak sales and rising prices. Isn\u2019t there a name for that sort of thing?<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"oil-options\" class=\"n-content-heading-2 o3-editorial-typography-chapter\">Oil options<\/h2>\n<p>We have nattered on in the past <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/71b2e681-0a8f-4c7c-b698-df918af64764\" data-trackable=\"link\">few<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/499612e1-e10a-477d-804d-b7f9a9557909\" data-trackable=\"link\">days<\/a> about how, while oil prices have been relatively stable in the face of the war in Iran, there were \u201ctail risks\u201d in that market, should the conflict escalate. Michael Chin of the research shop Allocation Strategy wrote to point out that our readers didn\u2019t have to settle for our verbiage. The options markets quantifies how investors see the risk of an oil price jump. Here is his chart of option-implied probabilities (the vertical axis) of Brent crude prices (horizontal axis), from before Israel\u2019s attack began and then on Monday:\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure class=\"n-content-image n-content-image--full\" data-component=\"image-set\"><picture><source media=\"(min-width: 700px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/ftcms%3A9b2e45e1-28df-46ef-a57d-393f7513db76?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=690&amp;dpr=1 1x\" width=\"690\" height=\"427\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/https%3A%2F%2Fd1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net%2Fproduction%2F9b2e45e1-28df-46ef-a57d-393f7513db76.png?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=700&amp;dpr=1\" alt=\"\" data-image-type=\"image\" width=\"690\" height=\"427\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/picture><\/figure>\n<p>\u201cThe mean of the distribution has not shifted dramatically (matching futures prices), but a significant right tail has formed. The probability of a 10 per cent or greater increase is currently at 17 per cent,\u201d Chin writes. That strikes us as probable enough to worry about \u2014 and yesterday, the oil price started moving towards that right tail.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"immigration-and-the-economy\" class=\"n-content-heading-2 o3-editorial-typography-chapter\">Immigration and the economy<\/h2>\n<p>Last Friday, after a week of skirmishes between protesters, police and the National Guard in Los Angeles, Donald Trump did what he often does: walk things back. He <a href=\"https:\/\/truthsocial.com\/@realDonaldTrump\/posts\/114670684664650262\" data-trackable=\"link\">posted<\/a> on Truth Social:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"n-content-blockquote o3-editorial-typography-blockquote\">\n<p>Our great Farmers and people in the Hotel and Leisure business have been stating that our very aggressive policy on immigration is taking very good, long time workers away from them, with those jobs being almost impossible to replace.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Trump\u2019s immigration rules are expected to do particular harm to the agriculture, construction and leisure industries by driving up labour costs. We have anecdotal evidence that undocumented workers are staying home to avoid the authorities. And we know that illegal border crossings have slowed to a trickle:\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure class=\"n-content-image n-content-image--full\" data-component=\"image-set\"><picture><source media=\"(min-width: 700px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/ftcms%3A90df0fc9-8ad5-4ee7-8301-d5ae37691335?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=700&amp;dpr=1 1x,https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/ftcms%3A90df0fc9-8ad5-4ee7-8301-d5ae37691335?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=700&amp;dpr=2 2x,https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/ftcms%3A90df0fc9-8ad5-4ee7-8301-d5ae37691335?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=700&amp;dpr=3 3x,https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/ftcms%3A90df0fc9-8ad5-4ee7-8301-d5ae37691335?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=700&amp;dpr=4 4x,https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/ftcms%3A90df0fc9-8ad5-4ee7-8301-d5ae37691335?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=700&amp;dpr=5 5x\" width=\"3500\" height=\"2500\"\/><source media=\"(max-width: 490px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/ftcms%3A72803771-ecc5-4747-8a27-00820b528a63?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=490&amp;dpr=1 1x,https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/ftcms%3A72803771-ecc5-4747-8a27-00820b528a63?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=490&amp;dpr=2 2x,https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/ftcms%3A72803771-ecc5-4747-8a27-00820b528a63?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=490&amp;dpr=3 3x\" width=\"1500\" height=\"2000\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/https%3A%2F%2Fd6c748xw2pzm8.cloudfront.net%2Fprod%2Fee0951b0-4bb4-11f0-80ae-876d92be228d-standard.png?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=700&amp;dpr=1\" alt=\"Line chart of Encounters at the south-west border ('000s) showing Trickle\" data-image-type=\"graphic\" width=\"3500\" height=\"2500\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/picture><\/figure>\n<p>But we have not seen the effects in the macroeconomic data. Labour force And major companies in industries likely to be affected by Trump\u2019s immigration policies (including homebuilders Lennar, PulteGroup and Toll Brothers; hotel chains Wyndham Hotels &amp; Resorts and Marriott International; and healthcare companies such as Encompass and Tenet) have not mentioned immigration crackdowns in recent earnings calls.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Troy Ludtka at SMBC Nikko Securities America says that, in theory, one would see the effects of less migrant inflows in rising construction backlogs or rising construction costs. But both are flat or trending down, not up. Backlog chart from Ludtka:<\/p>\n<figure class=\"n-content-image n-content-image--full\" data-component=\"image-set\"><picture><source media=\"(min-width: 700px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/ftcms%3Adee6658b-ca3f-426a-85b8-73f0cbe43cf1?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=694&amp;dpr=1 1x\" width=\"694\" height=\"321\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/https%3A%2F%2Fd1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net%2Fproduction%2Fdee6658b-ca3f-426a-85b8-73f0cbe43cf1.png?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=700&amp;dpr=1\" alt=\"Construction costs indicator chart \" data-image-type=\"image\" width=\"694\" height=\"321\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/picture><\/figure>\n<p>It could just be a matter of time. According to Wendy Edelberg at the Brookings Institution, the labour market is still seeing the run-on impacts of higher migration from last year. Work permit applications from documented migrants in the US and abroad have soared, and approvals are elevated. Documented migrants may be rushing to get into jobs before the rules change. It\u2019s possible, Edelberg says, that the pick-up in documented workers entering the labour force is outweighing any decrease in undocumented labour:<\/p>\n<figure class=\"n-content-image n-content-image--full\" data-component=\"image-set\"><picture><source media=\"(min-width: 700px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/ftcms%3A462fe752-1dcc-4e06-ab8a-1f3f2e031659?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=700&amp;dpr=1 1x,https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/ftcms%3A462fe752-1dcc-4e06-ab8a-1f3f2e031659?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=700&amp;dpr=2 2x,https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/ftcms%3A462fe752-1dcc-4e06-ab8a-1f3f2e031659?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=700&amp;dpr=3 3x,https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/ftcms%3A462fe752-1dcc-4e06-ab8a-1f3f2e031659?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=700&amp;dpr=4 4x,https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/ftcms%3A462fe752-1dcc-4e06-ab8a-1f3f2e031659?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=700&amp;dpr=5 5x\" width=\"3500\" height=\"2500\"\/><source media=\"(max-width: 490px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/ftcms%3A3026f4e0-bc5d-4b8a-b6e5-06c17ad5abb5?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=490&amp;dpr=1 1x,https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/ftcms%3A3026f4e0-bc5d-4b8a-b6e5-06c17ad5abb5?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=490&amp;dpr=2 2x,https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/ftcms%3A3026f4e0-bc5d-4b8a-b6e5-06c17ad5abb5?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=490&amp;dpr=3 3x\" width=\"1500\" height=\"2000\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/https%3A%2F%2Fd6c748xw2pzm8.cloudfront.net%2Fprod%2F3a3a8bf0-4bb3-11f0-9f6e-d174e646a432-standard.png?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=700&amp;dpr=1\" alt=\"Line chart of Work permit applications received (mn) showing Trending up\" data-image-type=\"graphic\" width=\"3500\" height=\"2500\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/picture><\/figure>\n<p>The US labour force and economy expand to accommodate new entrants; less migration <a href=\"https:\/\/www.piie.com\/sites\/default\/files\/2024-09\/wp24-20.pdf\" data-trackable=\"link\">implies<\/a> slower growth. With less migration, more deportations and a possible break in the wave of work permit applications soon, we could reach a turning point.<\/p>\n<p>(<em>Reiter<\/em>)<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"one-good-read\" class=\"n-content-heading-2 o3-editorial-typography-chapter\">One good read\u00a0<\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/06\/15\/world\/africa\/angola-mennonites-diamonds.html\" data-trackable=\"link\">Mennonites in Angola.<\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"n-content-layout\" data-layout-name=\"card\" data-layout-width=\"full-width\">\n<div class=\"n-content-layout__container\">\n<h3 id=\"ft-unhedged-podcast\" class=\"n-content-heading-3 o3-editorial-typography-subheading\">FT Unhedged podcast<\/h3>\n<div class=\"n-content-layout__slot\">\n<figure class=\"n-content-image n-content-image--full\" data-component=\"image-set\"><picture><source media=\"(min-width: 700px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/ftcms%3Adfee3b6d-9e31-411d-9bdf-ba4b484346d9?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=700&amp;dpr=1 1x,https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/ftcms%3Adfee3b6d-9e31-411d-9bdf-ba4b484346d9?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=700&amp;dpr=2 2x,https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/ftcms%3Adfee3b6d-9e31-411d-9bdf-ba4b484346d9?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=700&amp;dpr=3 3x,https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/ftcms%3Adfee3b6d-9e31-411d-9bdf-ba4b484346d9?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=700&amp;dpr=4 4x,https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/ftcms%3Adfee3b6d-9e31-411d-9bdf-ba4b484346d9?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=700&amp;dpr=5 5x\" width=\"4001\" height=\"2251\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/__origami\/service\/image\/v2\/images\/raw\/https%3A%2F%2Fd1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net%2Fproduction%2Fdfee3b6d-9e31-411d-9bdf-ba4b484346d9.jpg?source=next-article&amp;fit=scale-down&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=700&amp;dpr=1\" alt=\"\" data-image-type=\"image\" width=\"4001\" height=\"2251\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/picture><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"n-content-layout__slot\">\n<p>Can\u2019t get enough of Unhedged? Listen to <a href=\"http:\/\/unhedged.ft.com\/\" data-trackable=\"link\">our new podcast<\/a>, for a\u00a015-minute dive into the latest markets\u00a0news and financial\u00a0headlines, twice a week.\u00a0Catch up on past editions of the newsletter\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ep.ft.com\/newsletters\/subscribe?newsletterIds=584573e552860d000491cdb8\" data-trackable=\"link\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"n-content-layout\" data-layout-name=\"card\" data-layout-width=\"full-width\">\n<div class=\"n-content-layout__container\">\n<h3 id=\"recommended-newsletters-for-you\" class=\"n-content-heading-3 o3-editorial-typography-subheading\">Recommended newsletters for you<\/h3>\n<div class=\"n-content-layout__slot\">\n<p><strong>Due Diligence<\/strong> \u2014 Top stories from the world of corporate finance. Sign up <a href=\"https:\/\/ep.ft.com\/newsletters\/subscribe?newsletterIds=58db721900eb6f0004d56a23\" data-trackable=\"link\">here<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>The Lex Newsletter<\/strong> \u2014 Lex, our investment column, breaks down the week\u2019s key themes, with analysis by award-winning writers. 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