{"id":17273,"date":"2025-02-16T18:33:59","date_gmt":"2025-02-16T18:33:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/?p=17273"},"modified":"2025-02-16T18:33:59","modified_gmt":"2025-02-16T18:33:59","slug":"a-sobering-milestone-for-gaza-and-german-democracy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/financialrush.com\/?p=17273","title":{"rendered":"A sobering milestone for Gaza and German democracy"},"content":{"rendered":"

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This article is an on-site version of our The Week Ahead newsletter. Subscribers can sign up here<\/a> to get the newsletter delivered every Sunday. Explore all of our newsletters here<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Hello and welcome to the working week.<\/p>\n

Firstly, thank you to the Nick Lowe fans out there, especially those who pointed out that the original of \u201cPeace, Love and Understanding\u201d by Elvis Costello and the Attractions is superior. The other Elvis had a better grasp of this week\u2019s theme: \u201cSuspicious Minds\u201d.<\/p>\n

Monday will be the 500th day since the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict and trust between the two sides, and the economic powers trying to resolve the war, remains at rock bottom. European heads are now working on a solution<\/a> to counter US President Donald Trump\u2019s proposals to clear Gaza of Palestinians to enable an American reconstruction. The next few days will tell us not only for how long the current fragile ceasefire in that region holds<\/a>, but whether fresh ones can be agreed given that the Israel-Hizbollah ceasefire ends on Tuesday.<\/p>\n

European heads of state will gather in Paris on Monday to agree a proposal to resolve the war in Ukraine, at the start of what will be a decisive week for European defence strategy<\/a>. This is a catch-up exercise, however, after Trump\u2019s call to Vladimir Putin and his decision to open talks with the Russian president.<\/p>\n

Another (depressing) theme for the coming days is the rise of rightwing populist political groups. One focus for this is the Conservative Political Action Conference, which starts in Washington on Wednesday. Another is the snap German election, which feels anything but given the acres of coverage and debate, where the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is expected to poll strongly. Click here for the latest polling figures<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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The AfD might be on the rise, but it is highly unlikely to be the largest party when the votes are counted. The centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Christian Social Union sister party have gained the most in the polls since the election was called, meaning that CDU leader Friedrich Merz is the frontrunner to be the country\u2019s next chancellor, despite recent political stumbles<\/a>. <\/p>\n

He will inherit an ailing economy that after years of impressive growth has slipped into stagnation \u2014 two years in recession, with a third likely in 2025. The German labour market statistics, out on Tuesday, are likely to reinforce the gloom in the run-up to Sunday\u2019s national vote, making a Merz victory more likely but the scale of the challenge all the more obvious.<\/p>\n

Difficult economics will be laid bare for other countries this week with a run of data including UK inflation, public sector finances and employment figures, a purchasing managers\u2019 index (PMI) report for the G7 nations and Japanese inflation and GDP estimates all in the schedule.<\/p>\n

Earnings season has peaked, but there will continue to be a steady flow of results. They include the last of the British banks to report numbers, HSBC<\/strong>, Standard Chartered<\/strong> and Lloyds Banking Group<\/strong>, and European carmakers Mercedes<\/strong> and Renault<\/strong>. Expect more debate on electric vehicles. <\/p>\n

Retail is another theme, notably US retailer Walmart<\/strong>, whose success in seeing off the Amazon<\/strong> threat with revamped physical stores and increased online investment is the subject of an enlightening piece<\/a> by the FT\u2019s consumer editor Gregory Meyer, reporting from Bentonville, Arkansas, home of the 63-year-old company founded by Sam Walton.<\/p>\n

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One more thing\u2009.\u2009.\u2009.\u2009<\/h2>\n

With two children taking significant school exams this year, I\u2019ve been banned from organising the important annual ski trip<\/s> family gathering with our Austrian relatives in their joyously alpine surroundings. The fact that there is a bid to build the world\u2019s biggest fondue<\/a> in France next weekend is, frankly, rubbing it in. For those fortunate enough to be hitting the slopes, the good news is that the FT is on hand to help with a guide to the best resort restaurants<\/a>.<\/p>\n

However you are filling the next seven days, feel free to email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com<\/a>, or, if you are reading this from your inbox, by hitting reply. <\/p>\n

Key economic and company reports<\/h2>\n

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.<\/p>\n

Monday<\/h3>\n