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Mike Johnson is facing a knife-edge vote to keep his job as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, as top Republicans try to avoid a chaotic start to the second Donald Trump era in Washington.
Congress’s lower chamber will open for business at noon on Friday, with its first task being the election of a new Speaker.
Although Johnson, the Louisiana lawmaker who replaced Kevin McCarthy after his ousting in October 2023, remains the favourite and is backed by Donald Trump, Republicans have a majority of just 219 to 215 members, meaning he will need near-unanimous support to be re-elected.
Thomas Massie, a Kentucky lawmaker, has vowed to oppose Johnson’s re-election, so one more defection from Republican ranks could jeopardise his position, assuming all Democrats also vote against him.
The vote is crucial in the short term because the House will need to have a Speaker in place to certify Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election on January 6, paving the way for his inauguration on January 20.
Longer term, trouble for Johnson in keeping the speakership could be a bad sign for Trump’s ability to pass his agenda through the House, because it would show some Republicans are willing to buck his wishes and defy party discipline.
If Johnson is not elected on the first ballot on Friday, the process could drag on for multiple rounds, as it did in early 2023 when McCarthy was chosen as Speaker after 15 votes and dramatic negotiations with the holdouts within his party.
Johnson on Thursday met a group of Republicans who have said they are undecided on whether to support him as Speaker — and expressed confidence that he would win them over. “I think tomorrow’s going to go well,” he said.
No other Republican besides Massie has said they would vote against him. But dozens of rank-and-file conservatives were angered before the Christmas holiday when Johnson proposed a government funding deal that required compromise with Democrats to ensure its passage.
However, Johnson has stayed very close to Trump and his inner circle in recent weeks, co-ordinating plans to quickly pass his top priorities through Congress, which will make it hard for any Republican to join Massie and block Johnson.
“Speaker Mike Johnson is a good, hard working, religious man,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Monday, in an attempt to quash any move to replace him. “He will do the right thing, and we will continue to WIN. Mike has my Complete & Total Endorsement. MAGA!!!”
No other candidate has emerged as a possible rival to Johnson for the speakership, but the Republican discontent is concentrated within the House Freedom Caucus, which includes the most ardent hardline conservatives. Even if Johnson survives the speakership vote, members of the House Freedom Caucus are expected to remain a thorn in his side as he tries to pass Trump-backed legislation.
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