Yemeni mercenaries duped into joining Russia’s war by Houthi-linked group

Today’s agenda: Retailers stretch Black Friday; Sahel fatalities soar; a Nato without US aid; Rana Foroohar on techno-libertarians; and the science of measuring time

Good morning. We start with an exclusive story on how Russia has recruited hundreds of Yemeni men to fight in Ukraine. Here’s what we know.

How has Russia been recruiting? The ragtag group of mainly involuntary mercenaries was brought in through a shadowy trafficking operation that appears to have begun as early as July. Yemeni recruits who travelled to Russia told the Financial Times they were promised high salaried employment and even Russian citizenship. When they arrived with the help of a Houthi-linked company, they were then forcibly inducted into the Russian army and sent to the front lines in Ukraine.

Why it matters: The move shows how the conflict is increasingly sucking in soldiers from abroad, including thousands of North Korean troops deployed in Kursk, as casualties rise and the Kremlin tries to avoid a full mobilisation. It also underscores how Russia, driven by its confrontation with the west, is growing closer to Iran and its allied militant groups in the Middle East. US diplomats say the entente between the Kremlin and the Houthis, unimaginable before the war in Ukraine, is a sign of how far Russia is willing to go to extend that conflict into new theatres.

We have more details here, including interviews with Yemeni recruits who said they were tricked or threatened into signing Russia contracts.

Here’s what else we’re keeping tabs on today:

• Economic data: Ifo has its business climate survey for Germany.

• CBI: UK businesses are cutting plans for growth following Budget tax rises, the lobby group will warn at its annual conference today.

• The Hague: The 29th Conference of States Parties to the Chemical Weapons Convention, seeking cuts to such munitions, starts today.

• Companies: Barclays begins its tribunal appeal against a £50mn fine over its 2008 fundraising with Qatari investors. Bath and Body Works and Zoom report results.

Five more top stories

1. US retailers are extending one-day Black Friday discount offers into a sales event lasting weeks in a bid to tempt US consumers to keep spending, as data suggests that their spree which has driven economic growth is beginning to falter. Here are the retailers already offering deep seasonal discounts.

• Film industry: Wicked and Gladiator II took in $385mn worldwide at the weekend, giving cinemas hope for a strong holiday box office.

• Music industry: The sector’s revenues last year overtook cinema’s pre-pandemic sales peak, on the back of booming streaming platforms.

2. Exclusive: France has dropped its opposition to non-EU companies accessing EU-funded financial incentives for Europe’s defence industry, as the bloc pushes to develop a stronger domestic arms industry less dependent on the US. Henry Foy and Paola Tamma have more details from Brussels.

• Defence race: Europe has been building up its defence base, but change will need to happen fast to make a difference to regional security, writes Arizona State University’s Candace Rondeaux.

3. Exclusive: One of Europe’s largest property groups is bracing for the impact of a complex legal dispute between its billionaire owner and two convicted money launderers who say they privately bankrolled him. Senior executives at CPIPG, the Frankfurt-listed group run by Czech billionaire Radovan Vítek, are preparing plans to segregate €537mn of assets following a freezing order from a Cypriot court. Read the full story.

4. Huawei is poised to launch its first flagship phone that can run its own apps on a fully homegrown operating system, in the latest sign of how technology is splintering into competing US and Chinese ecosystems. The smartphone will feature HarmonyOS Next, which the Chinese company hopes to establish as a major rival to Apple’s iOS and Google’s Android. Here are more details on the new Mate 70, launching tomorrow.

5. Fatalities in the Sahel have soared as military juntas fail to contain a surge in jihadi violence in Africa’s “coup belt”. There were a record 7,620 such deaths across Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger in the first half of this year, according to a non-profit group, up 190 per cent from the same time in 2021.

The Big Read

For 75 years, the US has played an outsized role in Nato. Yet Donald Trump’s return to the White House has raised the spectre of a war in Europe in which Nato allies may no longer be able to count on full American support — or maybe any US support at all. “Europeans are going to have to pick up more of the burden,” one European official said. “The question is whether this will be a managed process or a chaotic one.”

We’re also reading . . . 

• Winter in Gaza: Aid officials warn that rains threaten to unleash a deluge of sewage for displaced people living in tents in the territory as temperatures fall.

• Northvolt dilemma: The Swedish battery group’s fall has left Europe struggling over how to recraft its electric vehicle strategy to compete with China.

• UK pensions: Pension arrangements shape national prosperity over multiple generations, and “long-termism” is the only sane approach, writes Martin Wolf.

• Techno-libertarians: Silicon Valley billionaires are selling a dream of unfettered markets — but reality is not so certain, writes Rana Foroohar.

Chart of the day

US monetary policy is on course to sharply diverge from Europe, with the Federal Reserve set to cut its benchmark interest rate only half as much by the end of next year as the European Central Bank. With Trump preparing to cut taxes and increase tariffs, US inflation is forecast to stay above 2 per cent throughout the whole of 2025.

Take a break from the news

How long is a second? Oliver Roeder looks at the mind-bending new science of measuring time, as physicists grapple with fundamental questions that have international political implications.