Trump’s Win Is Big for Crypto, But Let’s Keep Expectations in Check (Op-Ed)

The recent U.S. elections campaign brought surprises and drama on multiple fronts, even before the results came through.

However, one standout trend emerged as an outlier: crypto has moved from the fringes to the heart of the electoral stage. Moreover, the community has become a key demographic, heavily courted throughout this election cycle.

The Race for the Crypto Vote

The most vocal crypto advocate among the initial candidates was RFK Jr., who positioned himself as a crypto ally from the start. I witnessed his eagerness to court the crypto vote when I heard him speaking at the latest Consensus conference in Austin and saw his campaign truck, manned by activists, parked there throughout the event days.

Kamala Harris, on the other hand, largely bypassed the crypto debate. Her campaign showed minimal engagement with the crypto industry, perhaps influenced by key figures in her party like Elizabeth Warren. Only closer to election day did Harris make general remarks about “encouraging innovative technologies,” including digital assets—a gesture many dismissed as “too little, too late.”

As for the winning candidate, Donald Trump’s stance on crypto was a surprising development for those who remembered his earlier statements, such as labeling crypto as a “scam.” In the 2024 election cycle, Trump emerged as a “crypto president,” enthusiastically rebranding himself as a supporter of Satoshi’s vision. This transformation peaked with his appearance at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville.

This sharp divide in stance between the front-runners—accentuated by RFK Jr. joining Trump’s team—presented a clear landscape for the crypto community: Trump’s bullishness contrasted with Harris’s reticence. This dichotomy reflected a correlation between Trump’s polling status and Bitcoin prices.

Now that Trump won, the real question looms: will this crypto-friendly rhetoric translate into policy or was it simply a campaign strategy to woo previously hard-to-reach voters?

Red Wave, Green Market

With Trump’s win, it’s no surprise that crypto enthusiasts are buoyant. It seems likely that crypto champions like RFK Jr., Vivek Ramaswami, and “the emperor of Doge” Elon Musk may join Trump’s cabinet in some shape or form. The “red wave” has already turned the crypto market green—Bitcoin recently hit an all-time high, reaching over $93K, with many other tokens following suit. Even Coinbase stock is rising, aiming to recapture its 2021 bull-run highs.

Beyond the numbers, many crypto leaders have voiced their approval. Figures like Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, Paxos CEO Charles Cascarilla, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson, venture capitalist Marc Andreessen, and the Winklevoss twins celebrated Trump’s win. Anthony Pompliano notably remarked, “We now have the first Bitcoin president.”

The Promised Land?

To understand the crypto industry’s enthusiasm and gauge what the future might hold, we can look at Trump’s election promises. Among his proposals, he’s discussed forming a crypto advisory committee, which would likely be staffed by crypto-savvy insiders.

Additionally, Trump has promised to halt the sale of BTC held by the federal government—events that historically disrupt the crypto market. He has also expressed concern about the U.S. issuing a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), calling it “dangerous” and warning it could trigger a “Cold War era” in currency.

Trump also pledged to replace SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, a figure many in the crypto world view as hostile. With over 100 enforcement actions against crypto companies, Gensler’s departure could signal a shift.

Another promise involves creating a more favorable environment for crypto mining in the U.S., a pivot from the previous administration’s taxing of BTC production for environmental reasons. Above all, Trump’s promise of Fed rate cuts may further boost crypto investments.

What’s Next?

After the confetti has settled, what can the crypto industry realistically expect from a Trump administration? First, it’s crucial to recognize that the election’s impact extends beyond the Oval Office. Around 250 pro-crypto members of Congress were elected, and their voices in the House and Senate will significantly shape crypto policy.

At a high level, we may see deregulation and lower taxes, both favorable for crypto companies. Notably, crypto miners likely won’t face steep environmental taxes; they might even benefit from specific tax cuts aimed at revitalizing U.S. manufacturing.

Gensler’s replacement is widely seen as a “when,” not “if,” event, with names like Dan Gallagher, Paul Atkins, and Hester Peirce floated as potential successors—figures more inclined toward clear, constructive regulation for crypto. The new SEC leader is expected to reverse Gensler’s regulation-by-enforcement approach and lay out a definitive framework for exchanges, DeFi protocols, token issuers, and stablecoins.

The push for crypto ETFs beyond BTC and ETH may also gain traction, opening the door for XRP, Solana, and others to offer the public new crypto investment options.

Another potential shift involves devolving some federal authority to states, a concept aligned with Republican ideals. This could foster varied regulatory frameworks across states, introducing regulatory arbitrage that has proved effective in countries like the UAE.

Not All Roses

While election season is ripe for grand promises, not all commitments will be kept, and some may be contradictory. Firstly, it’s important to understand that Trump has bigger fish to fry—from immigration and energy policy to global conflicts—that will likely take precedence over crypto.

In some cases, Trump’s broader goals could even counter crypto’s interests. As a decentralized, borderless industry, crypto depends on free trade and open data flow—values that clash with isolationist policies and trade tariffs. For example, potential restrictions on work visas could hinder the U.S. tech industry, including crypto, which relies on international talent and in-person global meetings.

Furthermore, while Trump’s team has shown skepticism toward a U.S. CBDC, global developments could force the administration’s hand. China is racing ahead with its own CBDC, and the BRICS nations are inching toward a unified currency. Should Trump perceive the U.S.’s broader economic interests to be at stake, a pivot on the CBDC front wouldn’t be surprising.

Realistically Optimistic

In sum, a Trump presidency offers promising prospects for crypto. The presence of crypto-friendly figures on his potential team, the recognition of crypto as a legitimate financial and social movement, and the absence of staunch crypto skeptics like Gary Gensler and Elizabeth Warren in key roles all signal positive momentum. While some of Trump’s promises may materialize, the crypto community would do well to temper its expectations. This administration faces numerous critical challenges, and not all decisions will be pro-crypto.

The recent US elections were surprising and dramatic on many levels. The Democrats managed to break records in fundraising, while the Republicans joined forces with one of the brightest scientific and entrepreneurial geniuses – Elon Musk.

Authored by:

Michael Pearl is a seasoned executive in fintech and blockchain with over a decade of experience in business development and growth. Before joining Cyvers, he was the COO of Intentable and served as Director of Content at Finance Magnates and global economy editor at Calcalist. Michael is also the host of the “Free and Decentralized” podcast and is launching a new podcast called “Web3 Watchdogs.” He is a lawyer and holds a Master’s degree in International Relations and a Bachelor of Law from the University of Haifa.