Will BTC Rally to $100K or Correct Below $80K First?

Bitcoin has surged to a new all-time high, approaching the $90K threshold in an impulsive rally. The combination of another Federal Reserve rate cut and President Trump’s re-election has fostered a risk-on sentiment in the markets, driving demand for risk assets like Bitcoin.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

On the daily chart, Bitcoin’s price action reflects a robust shift toward a bullish market structure. It recently broke past both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages with significant momentum and reached an ATH of $90K.

On the other hand, the 100-day MA has crossed above the 200-day MA, marking a Golden Cross. This technical indicator signals bullish dominance, sparking FOMO among participants who are rushing to accumulate Bitcoin.

However, after this sharp rise, the market is expected to enter a corrective retracement phase. For this pullback, the 0.5 ($74K) to 0.618 ($70K) Fibonacci retracement levels, aligned with Bitcoin’s prior swing high, may serve as critical support zones, providing a target for profit-taking and re-entry in the mid-term.

The 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin remains in a bullish price channel, consistently marking higher highs and higher lows, which is characteristic of a healthy uptrend.

The price recently saw a strong rebound from the channel’s lower boundary near $70K, fueling the push to the new ATH of $90K.

Now that the price has reached the channel’s upper boundary, consolidation is underway. For the short term, a period of distribution near this level is expected, followed by a slight correction back to the channel’s middle boundary around $80K.

Although the current uptrend is strong, caution is advised against FOMO. The market often offers multiple opportunities for strategic entries, and a healthy correction would provide a more sustainable foundation for future gains.

On-chain Analysis

By Shayan

Bitcoin’s recent surge to a new all-time high of $90K has prompted many market participants to take profits, with miners notably contributing to the selling pressure.

The Miners Position Index (MPI), which gauges miners’ selling pressure, has surged past the critical level of 2, marking a yearly high. Values above two typically signal intensified selling pressure from miners. This spike suggests that miners are offloading a substantial portion of their holdings, likely to cover operational costs given Bitcoin’s elevated price levels.

Since miners hold a considerable share of Bitcoin’s supply, their increased selling can intensify overall selling pressure, especially if it coincides with a reduction in demand. However, in the current context, where market participants have already been profit-taking at ATH levels, there is an increased risk of price corrections. Without sufficient buy-side support in the short term, the market may experience a deeper retracement as the selling continues.