Ukraine has been building on its “victory plan” for the incoming Trump administration, highlighting potential business deals, access to raw materials and troop deployments in an effort to sway the famously transactional US president-elect.
Ukraine’s allies in Europe and the US, including senior Republicans, have offered advice on how to best frame proposals that incentivise close co-operation with Kyiv rather than cutting off critical aid to the country, according to Ukrainian and European officials.
The proposals stem from concerns among Ukrainian and European officials that Donald Trump could move quickly to seal a peace deal with Russia, in effect torpedoing western support to Ukraine.
Two of the ideas were laid out in Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s “victory plan” with Trump specifically in mind, according to people involved in drawing it up. The proposals were later presented to Trump when the Ukrainian president met him in New York in September.
One idea would replace some US troops stationed in Europe with Ukrainian forces after the war.
The other — first devised by Republican senator Lindsey Graham, a Trump ally, according to people involved in designing Zelenskyy’s “victory plan” — suggests sharing Ukraine’s critical natural resources with western partners.
Graham’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Trump was “interested” in the two points, according to a person briefed on the meeting.
Separately, business leaders in Ukraine are also talking with the government about offering Trump “investment screening” powers, allowing him to essentially choose who can do business in the country.
One person involved in the planning described the idea as “ABC — anybody but China,” which could play especially well with Trump. Ukrainian industries dependent on Chinese technology and materials, such as telecoms, according to the person involved, could switch to US suppliers and attract more western investment. The idea is in the early stages but some business leaders close to the president’s office believe it could play well with Trump.
Zelenskyy last week said he had a “great” initial phone call with Trump following his re-election. But Kyiv and its allies fear the US could still wind down its military support after the Republican takes office in January, the officials said.
Ukraine and its allies are worried that Russian President Vladimir Putin, buoyed by Russia’s advantage on the battlefield, could press a hard bargain and prompt the US to accept a peace settlement that ends the war on terms favourable to Moscow, the officials added.
“The first who blinks loses this game,” said a person involved in forming Ukraine’s pitch to Trump. “Putin believes he is on a good track right now and can get all that he wants.”
European officials, meanwhile, are concerned about being cut out of the Trump-led talks, giving them no leverage over a possible settlement that could define the continent’s medium-term security.
Western allies have so far responded rather tepidly to the “victory plan”, especially to the call to formally invite Kyiv to join Nato and supply it with more advanced weaponry.
Ukraine began devising its proposals over the summer, “to impose our narrative before Trump could impose his own”, said a person involved in the planning.
Kyiv, long frustrated with outgoing US President Joe Biden’s hesitance in increasing military support, hopes Trump will be swayed by the points specifically designed with him in mind.
“The level of dissatisfaction with the Biden administration was at such a level that they felt that it was time for a change and that this change to [Trump] could maybe be good,” the person said.
Oleksandr Merezhko, chair of the foreign affairs committee in the Ukrainian parliament, described the pitch to the incoming US president as a “wise move to show that Ukraine is not a burden for the west”.
“Trump wants to be a winner, not a loser. To become a winner, he needs to show Putin his place,” Merezhko added.
But Zelenskyy would also need to show his willingness to attend peace talks with Russia, said Alyona Getmanchuk, director of Kyiv-based think-tank New Europe Center. She said the Ukrainian leader was “limited” by his country’s national interests and “the expectation of Ukrainian society”.
Zelenskyy, she added, “could offer Trump the chance to be the greatest peacekeeper of all time”.
Kyiv is also looking to appease the Trump camp by replacing its ambassador to Washington, Oksana Markarova, according to people with knowledge of the situation.
Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson demanded Makarova’s sacking after she organised a visit for Zelenskyy to a US ammunition plant in September that was attended only by Democrats. Dmytro Kuleba, the former foreign minister, was offered the position but declined, the people said. Kuleba, the embassy in Washington and the foreign ministry in Kyiv did not comment.
Putin last week praised Trump’s ideas for a possible peace settlement and opened the door to talks with the US president-elect before he takes office in January.
But western officials said Russia was likely to begin any negotiations over Ukraine from a maximalist position similar to the one it adopted in the run-up to the war three years ago when it demanded Nato withdraw troops and weapons from eastern Europe.
Dmitri Trenin, a research professor at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics, said Russia would be “open for dialogue” if Trump came up with “something that fits with the Russian idea of eliminating the roots of the Ukraine problem for Russia”.
The US and its European allies baulked at the proposals in 2021. This time, however, Russia could rely on its superior manpower and firepower in Ukraine to extract more concessions from Trump, according to the western officials and a former senior Kremlin official.
“Everything is working in Putin’s favour right now. He might just decide to keep going if he doesn’t get what he wants because he can press his advantage,” said a former senior Kremlin official. “Putin will want to discuss all these issues of Nato beyond Ukraine itself.”
Russia is cautiously encouraged by Trump’s willingness to do a deal, but is wary that he could continue to enact tough policies against Moscow, said the former Kremlin official.
“It depends on the people he appoints to do a deal. Last time, Trump and Putin wanted a deal they didn’t have the right people in charge,” the former official said. “It’s entirely possible it all goes to hell.”
Kirill Dmitriev, a Kremlin sovereign wealth fund executive who has previously been involved in back-channel talks with people in Trump’s orbit, said the US president-elect had a mandate to mend fences with Moscow. “This may — and the key word is may — open opportunities for dialogue between Russia and the US, because we believe that Trump and his team have a reputation for being pragmatic and thoughtful,” Dmitriev said. “Any dialogue is better than no dialogue.”
But Trump’s perceived closeness to Russia could also backfire domestically.
“What we got from Trump in his first term was from someone who was trying to escape the allegations . . . of being a puppet of Russia. He wasn’t resistant to these allegations,” said the person involved in Zelenskyy’s pitch to Trump. “Now if he is resistant to that, then we are in big trouble.”
Additional reporting by Isobel Koshiw in Kyiv, Polina Ivanova in Berlin and Anastasia Stognei in Tbilisi
Source link
