Trump and Germany loom over uncertain COP29 finance talks

Good morning. A scoop to start: Brussels is set to unlock tens of billions of EU budget funds for defence by allowing cohesion funds to be spent on security-related projects.

Today, our COP29 correspondent reports that the talks in Baku are already overshadowed by US and German politics, while Laura and our EU finance correspondent preview today’s European commissioner hearings showdown.

Green screen

As the UN COP29 climate summit kicked off in Baku yesterday, all eyes were on the US’s most senior climate diplomat, who is trying to reassure nations that the country is “committed to a successful COP” despite the election of Donald Trump, writes Attracta Mooney.

The outcome of the election was “bitterly disappointing” for those concerned about climate change, John Podesta said, but he added: “We are here to work.”

Context: Following Trump’s victory, the expectation is the EU will have to do much of the heavy lifting at this year’s summit — not least when it comes to climate finance. Host country Azerbaijan has been busy organising negotiations for gas deals alongside the climate talks, according to officials.

At Baku’s Olympic stadium, where food ran out by 7pm on the first day, German climate envoy Jennifer Morgan also faced questions about whether she would be hamstrung by the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government.

But she said: “We have a full mandate here from our government and we stand by the commitments we have made around climate finance, around climate action, on climate laws.”

While she acknowledged the potential impact of the US election on global efforts to fight climate change, she said there would be no rollback in the EU.

“It’s quite clear that the global climate crisis and the global race for clean industries will continue irrespective of elections. Germany and the European Union see the transition to a climate neutral economy as a cornerstone of our future competitiveness,” Morgan said.

Countries are due to agree to a new climate finance goal at this year’s summit to help poorer countries decarbonise and mitigate the damages from the weather changes.

Small islands, Arab countries and African nations have called for a goal of at least $1tn a year, up from the $100bn that rich countries agreed to provide more than a decade ago.

Wealthier countries say they cannot afford such a large sum and want a wider range of countries, including China and Saudi Arabia, to contribute. It will be a testy two weeks in the Azerbaijani capital.

Chart du jour: The other gas

Methane has been responsible for an estimated 30 per cent of the world’s warming since the industrial revolution. Yet emissions from the energy sector reached a record high in 2023.

Hear me out

It’s showdown for the parties in the European parliament who will today decide the fate of the six highest ranking officials in the next European Commission, write Paola Tamma and Laura Dubois.

Context: MEPs will quiz Italy’s Raffaele Fitto, Estonia’s Kaja Kallas, French candidate Stéphane Séjourné, as well as Henna Virkkunen of Finland, Spain’s Teresa Ribera and Romanian politician Roxana Mînzatu.

Last week, 19 commissioners survived their hearings, and there is a general sense that it’s not worth delaying the start of the new commission over party politics. Yet party politics is the name of the game in the hemicycle.

Nominees need the backing of two-thirds of political groups represented in their committee hearing. By holding all the hearings for executive vice presidents on the same day, political groups have built in a “mutual destruction clause on all the big ones”, said one EU parliament official.

Yesterday, MEPs postponed a decision on Hungary’s Olivér Várhelyi until tomorrow, to build leverage against Hungarian premier Viktor Orbán and his Patriots for Europe, the third-largest group in the parliament.

The one to watch is Fitto, from the hard right European Conservatives and Reformists grouping. He can count on the support of the European People’s party, the largest group in parliament.

But the Social Democrats (S&D) — alongside the Greens, liberal Renew and the Left — have asked for him to be downgraded from the rank of executive vice-president.

This is unlikely to fly and voting against Fitto could endanger the approval of the S&D’s Ribera, if the EPP and ECR choose to retaliate. EPP lawmakers also want to question her over her role as climate minister during Spain‘s recent deadly floods.

“They have a loaded gun on the table against Ribera,” said another parliamentary official.

Renew is also wary of jeopardising the chances of their candidates, Kallas and Séjourné.

One likely outcome is that the votes will be held after all the candidates’ hearings are over, subject to a “don’t shoot” pact among political groups.

What to watch today

1. World leaders attend COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan.

2. Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte meets French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris.

Now read these

• Invest to survive: The price of climate change inaction is rising by the day, writes ECB chief Christine Lagarde, urging a greater push for green finance.

• Desperate pitch: Ukraine has been refining its “victory plan” to make it more attractive to US president-elect Donald Trump.

• ‘Surreal’ scenes: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition has just collapsed, but he has rarely been so popular inside his party.