Trump and Harris stump for votes in Pennsylvania in campaign’s final day

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In today’s newsletter:

The US election campaign’s final hours
Ukraine attacks North Korean troops in Kursk
The end of India’s stock market boom

Good morning — we start in the US, where the presidential race is in its final hours.

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump used their last day on the campaign trail stumping for votes in Pennsylvania, the election’s biggest battleground state where polls continue to show the candidates in a dead heat.

The state has 19 electoral votes and has been long viewed as key for both candidates’ path to the White House. Trump won there in his successful 2016 campaign but lost by 80,000 votes out of nearly 7mn cast four years ago.

The Financial Times poll tracker shows the candidates in a statistical tie in all seven swing states, which stretch from the eastern seaboard to the industrial Midwest to the western sunbelt.

In the campaign’s final days, Democrats have been cheered by what they believe is a decided shift in polling towards Harris — including a surprising lead in a much-watched survey of Iowa that showed her ahead in what many analysts believed was a solid state for Trump. Aides to the former president dismissed the poll as an outlier.

Jen O’Malley Dillon, the Harris campaign chair, acknowledged that the race was so close that the outcome may not be immediately clear. “We may not know the results of this election for several days, but we are very focused on staying calm and confident throughout this period,” she said.

Read our dispatch from Pennsylvania — and here’s more coverage to prepare you for the pivotal vote:

A country on edge: Law enforcement agencies are braced for civil unrest after a campaign season characterised by “unprecedented” violence, or threats of violence, against public figures and election workers.
The Big Read: James Politi goes inside the dark and sometimes bizarre final days of the Trump campaign.
The dollar: The US currency weakened and Treasuries advanced yesterday as global markets sharply reined in their bets on a victory for Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Explainer: Razor-thin margins and possible legal challenges mean America’s next president might not be known for some time. Here’s what to look for on US election night.
Trump’s criminal cases: The historic indictments against the former president would be derailed — or disappear entirely — if he returns to the White House.

Make sure you’re signed up for our US election newsletter to get updates as the results unfold. Here’s what else I’m keeping tabs on today:

Economic data: China’s Caixin Services PMI for October is due, South Korea reports inflation data for the month and Indonesia announces third-quarter GDP.
Monetary policy: Australia’s central bank announces its interest rate decision.
China: The China International Import Expo begins in Shanghai.

Five more top stories

1. Ukrainian officials said yesterday that their forces had fired at North Korean soldiers for the first time since their deployment by Russia to its western Kursk region. The clashes mark the first direct intervention by a foreign army since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022.

Indonesia-Russia naval drills: The two countries have begun their first joint naval exercises, as Jakarta’s new leader Prabowo Subianto seeks a bigger role for the south-east Asian country on the global stage.

2. A Chinese-built megaport in Peru could be used by Beijing’s navy, a top US general has said, highlighting the security risks to the US from “Belt and Road” projects in Latin America. Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to inaugurate the $1.3bn Chancay port on the Pacific coast when he visits Peru for a summit in mid-November.

3. Exclusive: Wall Street’s largest financial institutions have loaned more than $11bn to a niche group of tech companies based on their possession of the world’s hottest commodity: Nvidia’s artificial intelligence chips. Blackstone, Pimco, Carlyle and BlackRock are among those that have created a lucrative new debt market over the past year by lending to so-called neocloud companies.

4. Germany’s deputy chancellor has made a major concession in talks on next year’s budget, amid fears that a simmering row over the spending plan could bring down the country’s fragile coalition government. Robert Habeck said €7bn in government subsidies previously earmarked for a new Intel chip factory could now be used to plug a hole in the budget. He told reporters it was “the worst possible time for the government to fail”.

5. Iran is under pressure to release a female university student who removed her clothing in an apparent protest at compulsory hijab laws. The unprecedented act has turned her into a symbol of civil disobedience and tested the Islamic republic’s grip on its social and cultural policies.

News in-depth

A shopkeeper sells items in preparation for Diwali. The slowing of India’s economy is one factor contributing to investors’ concerns © Sudipta Das/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Foreign investors are increasingly fearful that India’s stock market boom may finally be coming to an end as the economy slows. India’s two main share indices in October posted their worst monthly losses since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, with investors pulling more than $10bn out of Indian stocks. “It’s a pretty classic cyclical economic downturn in India,” said Saurabh Mukherjea, chief investment officer at Marcellus Investment Managers. “The question is if it’s a few quarters or a more prolonged affair,”

We’re also reading . . .

Mattel after ‘Barbie’: With the film’s success, chief executive Ynon Kreiz now plans to turn the company’s other toy brands into a “playground” for filmmakers.
Gen Z’s woes: Does the younger generation really have it tougher than previous ones? Amy Borrett finds out.
What is left of Hamas: Israel believes it has shattered the group’s military force in Gaza but the remnants will be harder to destroy.

Chart of the day

Pakistan’s agricultural industry is struggling to adjust to the end of a shortlived boom in supplying sesame seeds to China, where it is a staple for the country’s kitchens.