Analyst Warns BTC Price May Fall to $10K as Crypto Bubble Implodes

Analyst warns Bitcoin could crash to $10K as macro stress and risk-asset unwinding signal a bursting crypto bubble if equities slide further.

Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone has published a warning suggesting Bitcoin (BTC) could revert toward $10,000 as broader financial market turbulence spreads.

His remarks framed the current market slide as part of a broader risk-asset unwind tied to stocks, volatility cycles, and macro liquidity.

Macro Stress Signals Point to Rising Pressure

McGlone linked his outlook to several macro signals, including U.S. stock market capitalization relative to GDP at century highs, unusually low 180-day volatility in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, and a rally in gold and silver that he said is occurring at speeds last seen about fifty years ago.

He characterizes the current environment as one where “the crypto bubble is imploding” and framed 2026 as potentially reminiscent of 2008 in terms of market turbulence.

The analyst shared a chart that compared Bitcoin divided by ten with the S&P 500, which showed both hovering below 7,000 on February 13. He added that if equities revert toward 5,600 on the S&P, BTC could mirror that move toward about $56,000, then potentially much lower if stocks peak.

“It seems unlikely that volatile and beta-dependent Bitcoin can stay above this threshold if beta doesn’t,” McGlone wrote, which serves as the centerpiece of his bearish outlook. “Initial normal reversion is toward 5,600 SPX ($56K Bitcoin), then what? Part of my base case for Bitcoin to revert toward $10,000 is a US stock market peak. 7,000 S&P 500, 50,000 Dow can’t be tops — or else.”

Recent performance data shows why such warnings are gaining traction. Bitcoin is down about 2% in 24 hours and nearly 28% over the past month, with six-month losses near 39%. Trading activity remains elevated, with roughly $44 billion in futures volume and open interest near the same level, suggesting heavy derivatives positioning during the decline.

Furthermore, a February 16 report from CryptoQuant found that about 43% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is currently at a loss, while the Fear and Greed Index dropped to 8, a level seen during prior crisis periods such as the FTX collapse.

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Long-Term Holders and Institutions Still Accumulating

Despite the bearish signals, not all indicators point down, especially considering that data from CryptoQuant shows so-called accumulator addresses are buying about 372,000 BTC per month, up from about 10,000 in September 2024.

These wallets meet strict criteria, such as no outflows and multi-year activity, which analysts say reduces distortion and suggests long-term positioning rather than short-term trading.

Institutional behavior also shows major players still have faith in BTC, with Binance confirming it completed converting its $1 billion SAFU insurance reserve entirely into Bitcoin and is now holding about 15,000 BTC. Days earlier, a filing showed Goldman Sachs still had exposure to 13,740 BTC through spot ETFs, even though the value of those holdings had fallen sharply with the price.

Meanwhile, some commentators, like economist Holger Zschaepitz, are watching cross-asset links to explain the prevailing market conditions. The analyst wrote on X that Bitcoin has recently moved alongside software stocks under pressure from AI disruption, suggesting tech investors, many of whom hold BTC, may be selling crypto to raise cash.