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Your guide to what Trump’s second term means for Washington, business and the world
There has been no year in US history quite like the first of Donald Trump’s second term. Though Trump warned Americans that he would be their “retribution”, he offered little idea of the scale on which he would seek to monetise his office. In one form or another, he did vow to take on the universities, regulatory agencies, the rest of the world on trade and the media. That he acted so rapidly, if haphazardly, on all these fronts in 2025 is nevertheless striking. That he encountered such little resistance is even more so. As we enter 2026, those who still believe in America’s checks and balances should bear in mind he is only a quarter of the way through. The battle to preserve the US system will only intensify.
On its own terms, Trump’s America First project to date must be judged a success. He promised to dismantle “the deep state”. His defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, has purged the Pentagon and replaced senior generals with men who seem likelier to follow dubious orders — striking civilians in the Caribbean, for example. Hegseth is also enthusiastic about deploying troops at home. Political loyalty tests at the intelligence agencies and the FBI are now routine. The conversion of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency into Trump’s praetorian guard has instilled fear in the lives of millions. It is routine for masked men to whisk suspected undocumented migrants off the streets to remote detention centres.
On tariffs too, Trump has belied widespread forecasts of domestic recession. But little in US history can compare with his monetisation of office. On the Bourbon principle of L’etat, c’est moi, Trump has blurred the lines between public and private. Foreign partners that offer crypto or real estate sweeteners have the opportunity to be treated far better in Trump’s tariff wars than states that operate by rules.
The same applies to Trump’s approach to Russia-Ukraine peace talks. That the talks have been led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, rather than the secretary of state, Marco Rubio, is telling. Their calling is business not geopolitics. Chief executives who donate to Trump’s causes are rewarded. Big corporations have either been forced to tame or divest their media arms. The so-called broligarchs, meanwhile, are enjoying a golden age. Trump has scrapped regulations in a lucrative merry-go-round where it is the titans who write most of the executive orders.
Yet he is encountering increasing pushback. Defeats in November’s off-year elections have emboldened some Republican lawmakers to take a stand. Trump’s dismissal of concerns about affordability has depressed his ratings and raised the prospect of Republican loss of Congress in this year’s elections. As Trump’s fortunes decline, however, his temptation to meddle with the midterm vote will grow. His reconciliation with Elon Musk means he will not be short of social media backing. After Trump’s 2020 defeat to Joe Biden, Bill Barr, the then attorney-general, and Mike Pence, his vice-president, blocked his attempts to reverse the outcome. Neither Pam Bondi nor JD Vance is likely to act as restrainers.
Many lower court judges have acted boldly in blocking illegal orders. The Supreme Court could even strike down Trump’s tariffs this month. But anyone who assumes that Trump will quietly slide into lame duck status would be misguided. His recent targeting of Somali immigrants is a reminder that there are few limits on what he will consider doing. In Trump’s mind and according to Project 2025 there are no restraints on a president’s power. It is up to the rest of America in this coming year, particularly elected Republicans and business leaders, to remind Trump that the rule of law still applies.
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