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The stories that matter on money and politics in the race for the White House
Depending on how things play out next week, Donald Trump will most likely be a key figure in the Republican party for somewhere between a handful of days and four more years. Either way, come 2028, the GOP will have a new figurehead. But will it have a new direction?
One school of thought says the turn towards populism on the American right — and culture-war conflicts more broadly over the past eight years —are functions of Trump’s singular personality and brand of politics. Freed of his influence, US political culture could return to the days where the hot button issues were tax rates rather than reproductive rights.
But this is a misdiagnosis. For one, the rise of the populist right and elevated prominence of social issues is neither specific to the US nor even originated there. Brexit preceded Trump, and radical right politicians and parties are now in power, or close to it, across much of Europe. Looking at wider societal shifts across the west suggests this is no coincidence, but the result of strong headwinds.
Many on the left scoff at the idea that the modern right can call itself anti-establishment. Trump is a billionaire. Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage were privately educated. But a closer look at the data suggests the label has legitimacy.
In their book Polarized by Degrees, political scientists Matt Grossman and David Hopkins set out how the realignment of the political divide from class to education has formed strong new alliances that are likely to survive changes in political personnel.
While arts and entertainment elites have long leaned leftward, academia has veered further to the left of the general population over recent decades. Conservatives have become a rare breed in journalism, and corporate bosses are increasingly aligned with the left.
Of course, pockets of the business world remain bastions of conservatism but, as a general rule, the highest earners, the most influential individuals, and those who shape what is seen as cool vs uncool or correct vs incorrect now hold predominantly progressive views. This ties the right to anti-establishment politics in a way it never has been before.
Another key shift is the breakdown of norms against airing rightwing views, set out in a fascinating new book by the Portuguese researcher Vicente Valentim. He argues that the rise of the populist right has been too rapid to have been caused by changes in people’s beliefs and values, and is better explained by the activation of reactionary views that were already beneath the surface.
The increasingly fragmented media landscape and rise of social platforms have probably played a part, both by showing individuals who have views previously seen as unpalatable that they are in good company, and by making it harder for elites to keep public discourse within certain guardrails.
In a self-reinforcing loop, politicians now know there is a constituency for reactionary politics, and this part of the electorate knows its concerns have entered the “Overton window” of acceptability. Given the momentum behind these shifts, it is hard to see how the populist-right genie could be put back in the bottle.
Finally, these two trends have coincided with — or perhaps engendered — a rise in the importance voters place on political authenticity. A new paper from the University of Southampton finds the public increasingly resents politicians who appear to be acting. Instead we prize the trait of being an unfiltered version of one’s self — someone who ‘tells it like it is’ — just as highly as competence.
It would be naive to imagine that culture-centric, anti-establishment politics will fade with Trump. The left has measurably become the party of the upper echelons, giving the right free rein to appeal to the lower-status majority just as norms against reactionary politics break down and voters sour on the polished elite.
A return to the era of moderate centre-right politics would be welcome, but we’re unlikely to go back to the days of Romney and Reagan any time soon.
