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Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
Investors will carefully parse a busy line-up of US corporate earnings for clues about the health of the US economy.
After weeks of strong beats on earnings, investors will also be focused on whether companies can deliver meaningful forward guidance. With macroeconomic data on hold because of the federal government shutdown, earnings reports are one of the primary ways investors are currently able to judge the state of the economy and the durability of corporate growth.
Much of the attention will fall on the tech sector, where artificial intelligence and data centre investments have driven lofty valuations. AI cloud computing company CoreWeave will report on Monday, while semiconductor maker Applied Materials reports on Thursday. Shares in big tech companies fell this past week, as concerns about elevated valuations wiped more than $900bn from the market value of eight of the most valuable AI-related stocks. Strong earnings in the coming week could help those prices recover.
Earnings from companies in cyclical sectors — industry giant Tyson Foods reports on Monday and retailer Dillard’s on Thursday, among others — will be watched for any cracks in consumer demand.
Two big names in crypto are also reporting: Circle, which issues the second biggest stablecoin USDC, will report on Wednesday, while American Bitcoin Corp, the crypto mining company founded by Donald Trump’s two sons, reports on Friday. Those companies’ stocks are up 20 per cent and 110 per cent respectively in the year to date. The administration’s support for crypto is likely to further bolster companies in the industry. Kate Duguid
Will jobs and GDP data open the way for a UK rate cut?
Investors will look to labour market data on Tuesday and GDP figures on Thursday for indications of the state of the UK economy, after the Bank of England said this week that inflation had “peaked”.
The central bank’s policymakers voted to hold interest rates at 4 per cent in a knife-edge decision on November 6, but governor Andrew Bailey hinted that the bank could cut rates in December “if the durability in disinflation is confirmed in upcoming economic developments this year”.
Tuesday’s labour market data may offer some clues. Economists polled by Reuters expect the unemployment rate in the three months to September to have risen slightly to 4.9 per cent, from 4.8 per cent in the three months to August. They expect annual wage growth, excluding bonuses, for the same period to edge down to 4.6 per cent from 4.7 per cent.
Both the BoE and economists polled by Reuters expect GDP growth to slow slightly to 0.2 per cent in the three months to September, from 0.3 per cent in the three months to August.
The BoE said its forecast “reflects weaker than expected growth in exports to the US” as well as a one-off shock from the shutdown at Jaguar Land Rover caused by a cyber attack.
It expects those factors to be transitory, with GDP growth returning to 0.3 per cent in the final three months of this year. Rachel Rees
Will Chinese retail sales growth keep slowing?
China will publish a slew of economic data for October on Friday, a week after disappointing trade figures showed that exports had dropped for the first time since Donald Trump’s “liberation day” trade shock in April.
Data on retail sales will be among the most closely watched. Economists polled by Reuters expect sales to rise 2.8 per cent year on year in October, a slower pace than the 3 per cent recorded in September.
Retail sales growth has been slowing since May. The government has tried to address weak consumer sentiment by subsidising trading in used items such as cars, appliances and phones. Analysts say this encouraged consumers to buy things earlier in the year than might otherwise have been the case, rather than contributing to a structural increase in demand.
Economists at ING expect retails sales to rise 2.6 per cent “as the impact of the trade-in policy continues to fade”. Peers at ANZ expect 3 per cent growth but warn that “consumption appetite remains sluggish”.
Also out on Friday will be urban fixed asset investment and industrial output. Year on year growth in the former has been slowing since March and turned negative by 0.5 per cent in September, as Beijing attempts to address overcapacity as a way to stop further falls in prices. Industrial output is expected to grow 5.5 per cent year on year, down from 6.5 per cent in September.
Despite signs of sluggish demand, expectations of substantial stimulus have faded. Analysts think Beijing is content with economic growth running around 5 per cent for the year, and will dole out stimulus piecemeal to make sure that target is met. William Sandlund
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