The creator of the Bitcoin stock-to-flow model has started to question his own creation and the relevance of four-year market cycles.
Bears think $126,000 was the top, and BTC will fall below $100,000, and 2026 will be a bear market mainly because of the four-year cycle, he observed before adding:
“IMO that is a BIG misunderstanding.”
There have been four-year cycles that revolve around the Bitcoin halving, “But three cycles are not enough for a reliable pattern,” he said. It is also “absolutely not guaranteed” that the top is again 18 months after the previous halving, which is now in October.
This Cycle Is Different … Or Is It?
The analyst then suggested that the cycle top could very well be in 2026, or 2027, or 2028. “Actually, I am much more interested in the average price level than the top (or the bottom),” he said.
“What I do know is: there has not been a fundamental Bitcoin phase transition yet in this cycle,” he continued.
“Either the big jump has yet to come, or we have transitioned into a more stable price regime, dominated by institutions, fund mandates, and rebalancing … Both scenarios are very bullish for Bitcoin.”
Bears think $126k was the top, and btc will fall below $100k, and 2026 will be a bear market mainly because … the 4 year cycle!?
IMO that is a BIG misunderstanding. Yes, there is a 4y halving cycle that doubles S2F-ratio, and 6 months before until 18 months after a halving was… pic.twitter.com/tehnZ4rRab
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) October 20, 2025
‘PlanB’ is not the only analyst who thinks the bull market has longer to run. Willy Woo observed that the liquidity driving the cycle top of the last bull market came from from paper derivative markets, which is a short term instrument.
“This cycle is shaping up differently. Paper has already started dropping away, while longer term spot liquidity is holding up for now.”
When Bitcoin dropped below $104,000 last week, many feared a bear market had just begun and were wishing for the price to go up a bit more so that they could just exit at a decent level, said analyst ‘Rekt Capital.’ They added that “people feel differently about price now,” after the recovery, but that was posted before today’s slump.
Bitcoin Price Tanks Again
Bitcoin has tanked more than 3% over the past few hours, crashing back to $107,700 during the Tuesday morning Asian trading session. It appears to have hit support around the critical $108,000 level and the plunge had stopped there at the time of writing.
What remains clear is that crypto markets are still very jittery and need some solid fundamentals to get the boost that analysts are looking for.
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