Uptober started with a bang as BTC added over $15,000 in just days, blasted through its August 2025 all-time high, and charted a new one at just over $126,000.
However, it has been mostly downhill since then, especially in the past 8 days. In fact, BTC lost over $23,000 in the span of a week before it recovered slightly to $107,000 as of press time. Still, it’s down by nearly $20,000 since its October 6 peak. The question, which has garnered some attention in the cryptocurrency community now, is whether the top for this bull cycle is in.
PlanB raised it in a recent poll, and the results showed that 68% of the 36,089 voters believe this is not the case and BTC has more room to grow during this cycle.
32% thinks $126k was the top
63% thinks bitcoin will drop below $100,000
68% thinks 2026 will be a bear marketBut why? Can you please explain to me your reasoning behind a big drop and/or a bear market from here (ideally with data and charts)? pic.twitter.com/rzCZanpTtg
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) October 18, 2025
However, a previous poll by the popular Bitcoin commentator and the person behind the BTC Stock-to-Flow model indicated that 62.9% of 30,833 voters believe the cryptocurrency will eventually drop below the coveted $100,000 mark. As such, he asked what people’s reasoning is behind a significant drop or a bear market from here.
While some relied on historical performances to try to determine how long after a halving BTC peaks, others brought up liquidity architecture. Adlegoff84 said BTC’s price “no longer reflects organic demand; it reflects the timing of institutional liquidity operations.”
“ETFs and custodial products rebalance through controlled supply absorption. Derivatives amplify that through perpetual funding and delta-neutral hedging. Central-bank liquidity policy sets the tempo. I believe what people call “bear market risk” is often liquidity rotation: profit extraction before capital redeployment. Charts capture movement. Liquidity reveals motive,” they added, to which PlanB “agreed 100%.”
I agree 100%: it is all about rebalancing and rotations (and mandates), and would indeed that is very bullish. I would love to see these rotations/rebalancing in a chart (but of course that is very difficult because we do not have the data).
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) October 18, 2025
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