Nations braced for Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ levies

Hello and welcome to the working week.

Once is never enough for Donald Trump. The US president has named Wednesday as the date that he’ll begin secondary tariffs on top of the levies already announced to punish exporters of aluminium, steel, cars and fentanyl to America. The Don calls it “Liberation Day”, though a more appropriate moniker might be that coined by Marc Ostwald, chief economist and global strategist at ADM Investor Services International: “Demolition Day”.

Trump is considering a two-step approach to his new tariff regime, deploying rarely used powers to impose emergency duties while probes into trading partners are completed. The FT’s trade columnist Alan Beattie explains in his (premium subscriber) newsletter Trade Secrets the flaws in the Trump administration’s proposed methods, not least the suggestion that personalised tariffs be allocated to each trading partner.

FT economics leader writer Tej Parikh puts the case that many of the risks are on the US economy since it is not as important to globalisation as some think. America accounts for just 13 per cent of global goods imports — down from almost a fifth two decades ago, Parikh notes. Moreover, research from Simon Evenett, professor at the IMD Business School, found that even if the US cut off all goods imports, 70 of its trading partners would fully make up their lost sales to the US within a year, and 115 would do so within five years, assuming they maintained their current export growth rates to other markets.

Whatever the final ruling this week, the short-term impact of secondary tariffs could be the least of it for the American economy. Countries may just lose faith in doing business with the US.

Billions of pounds are at stake for banks with UK operations this week as Britain’s highest court hears an appeal against a judgment that shocked car finance providers by ruling that commissions they paid to motor dealerships were unlawful.

The Supreme Court hearing, which starts on Tuesday, has wide-ranging legal implications that stretch beyond the auto market to many areas of consumer finance, which are braced for a potential wave of consumer claims for vast amounts of compensation. The UK financial watchdog has said it is gearing up to launch an industry-wide redress scheme for customers.

Talking of jeopardy moments, the political future of French far-right leader Marine Le Pen hangs with a verdict on Monday over whether she committed fraud and embezzlement involving EU funds.

If convicted, the three-time presidential candidate and head of the opposition Rassemblement National could be sentenced to a five-year ban from running for public office which would stop her being a candidate in the 2027 presidential election, a move that would shake French politics.

The UK’s new tax year begins at the end of this week, meaning the introduction of the long-trailed increase in employers’ national insurance contributions. The rate rises by 1.2 percentage points to 15 per cent, while the per-employee threshold at which employers start to pay NICs is reduced from £9,100 per year to £5,000 per year. This story is like Trump’s tariffs in that the impact has been felt before it happens, in this case in terms of a hiring slowdown, and is likely to have an impact in the future potential of the economy where it is happening that might be hard to tease from other factors.

There is a trickle of corporate results on this week’s calendar, some notable central bank speeches and a limited run of economic data, notably German inflation numbers, G7 economic comparisons with the purchasing managers’ index data and further US employment updates. More details below.

One more thing . . . 

It will definitely be a better week for Microsoft, which will celebrate turning 50 at its Seattle headquarters on Friday. Special appearances are expected from key figures in the company’s history, such as co-founder Bill Gates and former chief executive Steve Ballmer. If you want to know more about Gates, I’d recommend his memoir (the first of a projected three, apparently), Source Code. Here’s the FT review by my colleague on the west coast Richard Waters.

What are your plans for the week ahead? Are you feeling optimistic about the future? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Germany: March consumer price index (CPI) and harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate data

• India, Iran, Malaysia, Nigeria, Singapore, Turkey, UAE: Eid e-Fetr (End of Ramadan) holiday. Financial markets closed

• Italy: provisional March CPI inflation rate data

• UK: Bank of England publishes its monthly Money and Credit data and February effective interest rate figures across UK deposit and loan accounts, Also, Adzuna UK Job Market report 

• Results: Bertelsmann FY, Pennon Group trading statement, Petershill Partners FY, Pets at Home trading statement, YouGov HY

Tuesday

• Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee external member Megan Greene gives keynote speech at the UK Women in Economics Network event in London

• European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde speaks at Frankfurt conference, The transformative power of AI: economic implications and challenges

• British lender Close Brothers and South Africa’s FirstRand appeal against the landmark ruling by London’s Court of Appeal that motor finance brokers must fully inform customers about commissions on car loans, amid a looming multibillion-pound consumer redress scheme. The hearing of the linked appeals at the UK’s Supreme Court is listed to take three days

• Ivan Espinosa becomes chief executive of Nissan, succeeding Makoto Uchida

• General meeting of Hornby shareholders to vote on the proposed voluntary delisting of its shares from trading on London’s junior AIM market. If approved, the cancellation becomes effective on April 10

• Australia: February retail trade figures

• Canada, China, Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global/HCOB/Caixin March manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

• EU: flash March inflation rate data. Also, February unemployment figures

• Japan: March Tankan survey of enterprise and February labour force survey (AM local time)

• UK: April Nationwide House Price Index plus Kantar grocery market share and inflation data

• US: February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (Jolts) data

• Results: Niox Group FY, Pinewood Technologies FY, PVH Q4

Wednesday

• India: HSBC March manufacturing PMI data

• Results: Big Technologies FY, Raspberry Pi FY, SSE trading update, Topps Tiles HY trading statement

Thursday

• Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global/HCOB/Caixin March services PMI data

• EU: European Central Bank publishes last monetary policy meeting minutes

• UK: March international reserves data

• Results: Baillie Gifford Shin Nippon FY, ConAgra Brands Q3, Moonpig trading update, Lamb Weston Holdings Q3

Friday

• 50th anniversary of the founding of US technology company Microsoft, by Bill Gates and Paul Allen in Albuquerque, New Mexico

• France, Germany, Italy, EU: S&P Global/HCOB March construction PMI data

• India: HSBC March services PMI data

• UK: British Chambers of Commerce Economic Survey

• US: March employment figures

• Results: Sodexo HY, Yaskawa Electric Corp FY

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• Belgium: trade unions are due to stage a general strike over the government’s proposed labour market reforms. Departing flights from Brussels airport and Charleroi airport are set to be cancelled for the day

• Denmark: King Frederik and Queen Mary begin a three-day state visit to France.

• EU: 15 per cent reduction in gas usage plan, designed to reduce reliance on power supplied from Russia, ends

• France: court decision due in far-right leader Marine Le Pen’s trial over allegedly using European parliament funds to pay party workers

• UK: Stamp Duty Land Tax reduced rate of £250,000 ends in England and Northern Ireland

Tuesday

• April Fool’s Day

• France assumes presidency of the UN Security Council

• UK: National Living Wage and National Minimum Wage increases take effect

• Sir James Mackey takes over from Amanda Pritchard as chief executive of NHS England

• US: Florida holds a pair of special elections to fill the House of Representatives seats vacated by Michael Waltz, picked as national security adviser by Donald Trump, and Matt Gaetz, the US president’s first choice for attorney-general. Republicans are expected to easily retake both seats

Wednesday

Thursday

• Belgium: Nato foreign ministers gather for a two-day meeting in Brussels. The military bloc’s chief Mark Rutte will address the media on both days

• Serbia: 49th Ordinary Uefa Congress is held in Belgrade. This annual event brings together the presidents and general secretaries of Uefa’s 55 member football associations to make decisions about European soccer governance

• Uzbekistan: EU-Central Asia Summit, the first between the EU and leaders from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan

Saturday

• UK: The Grand National, the world’s most famous steeplechase, runs at Aintree racecourse near Liverpool

• US: Washington’s TikTok ban comes into force, with its owner, Chinese internet company ByteDance, required to either shut the app down or sell it

Sunday