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Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world
Donald Trump is the Maga movement’s greatest asset and its greatest liability.
The US president is a political genius. But he is also, in the memorable phrase, attributed to Rex Tillerson, his first secretary of state, “a fucking moron” when it comes to understanding policy.
That tension between Trump the genius and Trump the moron is dangerous for the “Make America Great Again” movement that he created and leads.
As a political actor, there is no denying that Trump has an intuitive genius that has enabled him to completely reshape American politics. Winning a second term in office by a decisive margin has given him absolute authority within his party. For now, Trump can do what he wants. The problem is that what he wants is likely to be very damaging to America.
The most obvious example of the self-destructive nature of Trump’s policies is his obsession with tariffs. The US president cannot or will not understand that tariffs are paid by importers and that much of the cost will be passed on to consumers. He also regards unpredictability as a virtue. So tariffs are imposed, lifted and then reimposed, seemingly on a whim. The result is that businesses cannot plan ahead and that consumers and investors are panicking.
In Trump’s first term, when his political authority was weaker and his advisers more conventional, the president’s aides were able to deflect some of his worst ideas. Officials sometimes ignored or reinterpreted his instructions, or even removed papers from his desk, in an effort to contain his instincts.
But in term two, the president has surrounded himself with sycophants who want to “let Trump be Trump”. Howard Lutnick, his commerce secretary, assures us that Trump is “the most important, the smartest, the most capable leader in the world”. So the president can press ahead with policies that are likely to damage the majority of Americans in direct and tangible ways.
Trump has done many outrageous things in the past, such as attempting to overturn the result of the 2020 presidential election. But few of his previous actions affected the daily lives of ordinary Americans. Causing a recession, higher inflation or a stock market crash would be different. Some 60 per cent of Americans own shares, often in their retirement funds. Many will be dismayed by the recent slump in share prices. Consumer confidence is also falling, as inflation expectations rise.
The economy was rated the most important issue by voters in the last election. But Trump’s ratings for handling the economy have already turned negative. There may be more pain to come as cuts in the federal workforce ripple out beyond Washington. Possible cuts in social security or government-funded health benefits would also hit millions.
Picking fights with America’s neighbours and allies might seem to fall into the category of issues that the average voter can shrug off. But threatening to annex Canada (another moronic idea) has started a needless trade war with a peaceable neighbour. If the Canadians retaliate by forcing up the price of exports of oil or electricity to the US, ordinary Americans will suffer. Tariffs on Mexico could also raise supermarket prices. Some 50 per cent of America’s imported fruit comes from Mexico. The profits of the big three US car companies could be wiped out by a 25 per cent tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico.
The economic effects of Trump’s policies are likely to determine the future of his presidency. But Trump is also putting Americans at risk in other ways. Sacking FBI agents and intelligence officers — and appointing conspiracy theorists as director of national intelligence and head of the FBI — is a recipe for an eventual high-profile disaster. Putting another conspiracy theorist, Robert F Kennedy Jr, in charge of the health department creates another set of obvious dangers.
Watching Trump unleash his inner moron on the American government reminds me of a prediction I heard from a prominent US businessman in January. “If Trump does half the things he’s promising to do, this whole thing will blow up. And it will discredit Maga for a generation.”
The obvious mechanism for a blow-up would be a huge defeat for the Republicans at the next elections. But the midterms are almost two years away. Trump and his minions can do a lot of damage to America’s institutions, including the electoral system, in that time. If the administration begins to obviously flounder, Trump is likely to respond with a hunt for scapegoats and increased authoritarianism.
But the experience in other damaged democracies is that even a partly rigged system can work well enough to inflict electoral defeats on far-right populists. Jair Bolsonaro lost the Brazilian presidential election in 2022 (and has been charged with attempting a coup afterwards). Poland’s Law and Justice party lost power in elections in 2023. Viktor Orbán of Hungary, who has been prime minister since 2010 and is much admired by the Maga movement, is trailing in the polls ahead of elections expected next year — as the Hungarian economy struggles. There were anti-Orbán demonstrations in Budapest at the weekend.
Rightwing populists can often win the culture wars. But mishandling the economy is much harder to explain away. If Maga makes Americans poorer, Trump and his movement are likely to pay the price.
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